Been away for several months and I find it hard to believe this scam is still alive and well. Well...... maybe not well but still alive. Hope never dies when big losses are incurred but not realized. Everybody hangs on listening to drivel by pumpers and everyone is looking for a spike sot that they can dump and run. The funny thing though is that if it does spike most will still hold with irrational glee. That is the difference between gambling and investing. Been there done that.
Big difference between SB and DRYS. SB is financially sound although not making a profit at this time. DRYS is drowning in debt and will issue new shares diluting the common shareholders at the drop if a hat. DRYS used to rely on ORIG to provide stability but now that oil has fallen ORIG will be lucky to stay alive. SB did not fall into the trap of overconfidence when shipping rates were flying but has been picking up the pieces of failed shippers through the shipping crash.
And why not? Looking historically at Safe Bulkers we see a list of buys and holds that have all proven to be wrong considering today's new low. Analysts opinions have proven to be worthless if not deceptive. Changes in upgrades, holds and downgrades affect the stock price with the focus on past performance. The reason to have a grading system is to give insight on future performance but past performance is not a reasonable guide to future performance. Kind of like looking out the back window of a car and trying to predict what is going to happen ahead. Not a very safe or effective way to drive.
In my opinion SB is the best of dry shipping plays. Insiders hold 61% of common stock and have always been a strong dividend play. Low debt loads and good management should make SB one of the better plays when the BDI returns to profitable levels. I also like NM as a dry shipper for the same reasons. NM is more diverse in their fleet and holdings. NM has been more opportunistic in this downturn acquiring ships from bank holdings on the cheap.
Today we are again at a all time low. SB is probably the best buy in the shipping sector but is taking a shellacking along with the rest of the sector. When the BDI recovers shares bought today will make todays dopey buyer look like a genius. When will we see a recovery? Talking heads last year said that this would be the year as the BDI was showing a heart beat at the time. They were wrong. Bottom line is that no one really knows but it is best to be careful and do your own DD.
Printed above my computer I keep one of my favorite sayings......
"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well". Warren Buffett