jasummers, thanks for verifying the basic details… I’d also like to know more details but I suspect that we won’t get some of them until HzO creates a prospectus and I doubt that will come this year… Give it time, this technology is still in its infancy stage and once it starts to grow it will go through many pairs of shoes before its patents expire (by the way, running shows protected by waterblock is just one of a million possible uses)… The HzO_Inside website has seen a lot of changes recently; personally I find everything mentioned under the “applications” tab to be very interesting.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
jasummers, the whole HzO issue is one that current management is likely to stay pretty quiet about… Please don’t quote me because I watch a lot of companies and it has been quite awhile since I dug into this one (I may get some of my facts wrong). From what I recall, it was the prior CEO who invested in HzO, buying the whole company for Zagg and then spinning it off to become its own entity (allowing funding by more than just Zagg), then he invested a lot of his own money in that entity, then he left Zagg and went on to help run HzO_Inside… I believe that’s approximately what went down but you should do your own research. If that is the case, then HzO will do all the wheeling and dealing and the best thing the current Zagg CEO can do for shareholders is let HzO succeed (and eventually go public) then eventually issue the HzO shares to Zagg shareholders. This would give the CEO and the board members and all Zagg’s shareholders a nice little piece of this amazing new tech. I would much rather see Zagg roll out its HzO shares to Zagg shareholders than sell that stake because it will give each and every Zagg shareholder a chance to own a small piece of HzO; otherwise, retail investors might try to invest in HzO when it goes public but it will be a very hot stock so good luck chasing it.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The HzO tech is much bigger than cell phones. Within the next ten years this tech will probably be used in all electronics and beyond. It will probably also make its way into clothing lines, art galleries and many unexpected places. I foresee many many things using waterblock technology; cell phones are just the tip of the iceberg. Eventually all high end digital cameras being protected, laptops will be protected, special purpose HDTVs will be protected, solar panels, etc. etc. Going beyond digital, several clothing lines for ski and winter wear will be protected; it may even go as far as casual wear. Art galleries may eventually coat their high end pieces with waterblock… This technology has enormous potential so Zagg's near 40% ownership could end up being worth several times what Zagg is currently worth. Selling the technology to the highest bidder would be a foolish thing to do, but licensing the technology to the likes of Samsung, Apple and others is, IMHO, inevitable.
FYI, I've been buying here near $5 and plan to buy a lot more.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Done, thank you for the heads up! This company has an important product that is now ready for prime-time and it is trading new its 52 week low and at just under 3x cash (do they really have zero debt???). Down here they should be an ideal acquisition target for anyone up to around $6.
BTW, October $2.50 options are trading low enough to be an alternative to the stock. I could see them trading that low if the company paid out dividends, but it doesn't. Today I almost bought June $2.50 contracts only to find the October contracts selling for the same price... DOH! Who does that? Are there machines involved?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Claimed that a large set of new autos will soon be using voice recognition software and that Nuance will benefit from this... Does anyone one know if that is true or will it simply be a drop in the bucket?
LNKD went up nearly 60 points in two months. That could happen here if Yandex proves to be the next Google. To find out for sure you'll need to type Yandex into a Google search engine and see what it comes up with... They know everything over there at Google. If Yandex is truly the next Google then their search results will return "see Google"... Sure enough, one of their results says that Yandex is the Google of Russia. Boooo Yaaaah!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yesterday’s presentation: “The results show that PHA can be blended with PLA to achieve a 20-fold increase in impact strength with modest decreases in tensile modulus. The balance of properties achieved with the blend rivals the performance of established engineering resins… yada yada yada”
Today’s presentation: “Described the miscibility of PHA polymeric modifiers and their effect on plasticization, impact modification and flow promotion in flexible and semi-rigid PVC. In addition, data showing the resistance of PHA modified PVC to fungal growth, weatherization and biodegradation as compared to controls… yada yada yada”
Eno has the scientists, engineers, patents and licenses that could lead to some rather large sales, but is clearly spinning his wheels quarter after quarter because larger customers don’t invest in miniscule companies. Eno, isn’t it time to put your tech into the hands of someone big enough to make a difference and spread your tech to the ends of the earth? You need a parent with resources and deep pockets; think about it!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
jakehines, I know that you’ve been watching Cereplast fail for a long time and see some parallels between both companies. I believe that the main difference right now is that Metabolix has better technology, more patents and more cash but Cereplast has/had a manufacturing arm. Do you know, have they lost their manufacturer (did they own their manufacturer) and would it make since for Metabolix to approach the same one? Metabolix has some pretty big investors who would really like to see them succeed (including former Abbott Labs Exec Jack Schuler who has nearly $20Mil invested there)… Would it make since for some of Metabolix’s investors to purchase Cereplast’s manufacturing arm and merge that with Metabolix? I’d like to see the current team (Meta & Anti) succeed but believe that they don’t have an exclusive arrangement so Metabolix could have more than one manufacturing partner in Europe.
I think we’ll get news before earnings.
Watch for a pop back over $2 on any significant news.
A 33% pop like that is what new investors are looking for and it could happen at any time.
Don’t expect it to happen during earnings but rather after Kenmare announces its first sale.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
i.l.pelosi, did you know that you are both making up information and spreading false information? If not, then you better start digging because the fiction you printed up yesterday is something you made up in your own mind to describe what’s going on with Metabolix. If you spread lies and get caught it could have very serious implications for you and your family. You’ve been using the same Id for long enough that your digital thumbprint won’t be hard to follow. This is just a friendly warning “get your facts straight before post”. Multiple times yesterday you spread misinformation; that is the sort of thing that could have investors coming after you instead of Eno. BTW, I’m not going to tell you where you lied and where you didn’t; I suspect that you’ve gotten so good at it that you don’t really know the difference.
Re: "even shorted more on the close"
Did you know that it is illegal to manipulate stocks yet the short here have been doing it for months?
Don't worry, they will get theirs... BTW, if you are certain that the shorts are manipulating the close then feel free to report them to the SEC. They have a website for reporting suspicious activity and manipulation of the close is one of their check list items.
The more that reports suspicious and/or illegal activities the merrier.
Have a very Merry Christmas!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
2013 will finally be our year; unfortunately I don't think there's enough shorts left for a big squeeze
The buying by insiders was a sign for many hence our favorite little short here has already moved on
The rest are little guys still trying to fish in the wrong pond. It shouldn't be long before this one turns around and bites them in the ###
Look no further than recent press to get a hint of where this one is headed
Good luck and Merry Christmas
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You're right, lawsuits are the wild card.
The next few months this should be a very low risk investment with the exception of the lawsuits. I’d love to hear from anyone who is an expert in that matter. I've worked for companies that had similar lawsuits and the execs often stated that they have insurance that will cover most of it. On the other hand, I've also heard that most of these lawsuits are nuisance suits that eventually get paid to go away (rather than walk up escalating attorney fees). Regarding the validity of these lawsuits, I truly believe that most of the problems occurred due to poor site selection by ADM. The villagers didn't like having a factory built in their backyards. They were quite okay with selling their properties, supplying construction workers and living high off the $430 Million that ADM spent, but they didn't want the facility turned on and that wasn't Metabolix’s fault. ADM should have done like Metabolix is doing now and found a fermentation facility to work with rather than build one from scratch. Locals don’t like chimneys and smoke stacks being built in their backyards. They might choose to move to a place like that for work but they don’t want it built near their existing homes. The joint partnership was doomed the minute Clinton Iowa was selected but no one would have known that unless they thoroughly questioned the locals. ADM should have done a much better environmental study; it's no wonder they were willing to take the write off. Anyone looking to sue someone should be looking towards the company with the deep pockets instead of bullying the little guy.
Looking over recent press I find it funny how Mark Cuban is expecting Apple to ‘kill’ so many because it is clear that Mark is totally underestimating the power of Microsoft and especially what’s about to happen with Windows 8… There is a whole lot going on there and it only goes to show that the battle is just beginning.
I believe that Apple is making a mistake walking away from Intel for its highly successful laptops at the exact same time Microsoft and Intel are seeing a plethora of new touch books that are certain to walk away with some of Apples gains. As it comes down to a combination of Microsoft and Intel on the latest greatest devices at big discounts to what Apple is asking for a fine tablet process but certainly not one that draw new customers to higher end / more expensive devices… If it doesn’t say Intel inside, and it costs more while you get less, then why buy it.
So Apple isn’t necessarily the winner for the living room… Now if Tivo were to team with Microsoft with plans to stomp on Apple… IMHO, that could be the real winner! Add in a little Skype to walk on Facetime and you have a double winner.
Tivo hasn’t lost, but if they don’t eventually choose sides they might. I really like where Microsoft is headed but that’s just one persons opinion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
One more thing… One of the biggest problems facing everyone has been the time it takes for customers to garner enough confidence to introduce Mirel to their product lines. Mirel’s track record isn’t broad enough to inspire confidence so many manufacturers have undertaken extensive time consuming tests to determine its viability for their product lines. Fortunately, Metabolix has enough customers that they can provide references for their products, but the floundering share price and the ADM fiasco hasn’t helped Metabolix’s reputation. If Metabolix found a big North American partner and let them take over production and sales in North America then they could leverage their partner’s reputation to improve sales in Europe and the rest of the world. For example, if a company like DOW Chemical were to produce and publish a white paper and price sheet for Mirel then you can bet their customers would not spent two years testing it before deciding whether or not to use it. Metabolix could certainly leverage success a partner in the Americas to speed up the adoption process elsewhere.
So they found a great facility with a solid track record and now they have to integrate their technology, identify and/or purchase new equipment (as needed), complete a test run (by early 2013), complete additional economic and engineering feasibility studies (whenever), decide if an when bio chemical production will be added to the mix…. Then, perhaps if and only if everything goes exactly right, then they’ll generate and sign a definitive contract manufacturing agreement with Antibioticos. Now tell me, are you an investor or a speculator?
I’m sure that Eno has picked one really good egg and basket to hold it, but I really wish he had a more diversified strategy for investors to pin their hopes on. Eno appears to be well prepared to enter Europe (if all goes well) but he appears to be thinking really small which seems ridiculous for such a huge product. IMHO, Mirel is important, it is something that Eno should be able to take to the President of the United States and get instant support for. Additionally, Mirel is something he should be able to take to the Governor of Hawaii and get instant support for. I believe that Mirel is a significant product that continues to be buried in a deep dark hole with only small glimmers of light peeking through. It deserves to be on every store shelf in America and can only get there if Eno finds a great big partner with the resources to get it there. The thing about great big partners is that they are kind of scary and have a way of walking on the little guy. That is why you set time limits to your partnership, keep long term control, and give yourself a reasonable time to set the ball rolling then renegotiate after your partner is hooked. Keep in mind that if a big partner generates a large amount of sales it can translate into fortunes for both companies (even if the bigger player is taking the lion’s share of the profits).
“On earnings, again it is much too early to offer any guidance on the earnings potential from on the Antibióticos facility, but our analysis and collaborative relationship with Antibióticos should allow this to be cash generator for Metabolix once the business is ramped up. While it should be clear to you that we are enthused about the potential of the Mirel launch we are well aware of the many challenges in front of us and are working aggressively to overcome them.”
“These include first, as you know Mirel is a higher cost material than some other biopolymers. Here we have defined a focused market strategy targeting applications where Mirel is differentiated and adds substantial value for our customers. Second, the launch of a new polymer is challenging, qualification times as we’ve told you can be 9 to 15 months and the process is often irritative. To address this challenge we have a core group of customers where our product has already been qualified and we aim to translate these successes to other very similar customers. We know our current and many of the potential customers quite well.And third, Metabolix at its current scale cannot create a ledger balance nor underwrite product sales. Here we’ve defined a business strategy which should allow us to be profitable at relatively loss sales levels and scalable. Joe will touch on the longer term financial strategy for the firm in his remarks. The decision on Antibióticos was made taking into account all of the above challenges and in our view represents the best next step in the drive to make Metabolix a highly successful, high revenue growth company.”
“To conclude working with Antibióticos enables Metabolix to collaborate with a highly capable partner and maintain control of all aspects of our technology and process. It allows us to stay flexible, to work with multiple partners, to deploy new technology when we see fit and to integrate biopolymers and chemical manufacturing in the future.”
“We will enter the market quickly, at a reasonable scale and economics, free from the over $400 million ledger balance that existed under the Telles relationship. So the signing of the LOI with Antibióticos is a first step, but a very important step in our overall plan to set up our supply chain to serve biopolymer customers worldwide and bring our PHA technology to market.”
“Why, Antibióticos? There were several factors associated with the selection of Antibióticos as our initial launch point for Mirel biopolymers. But, the top four and most important, our speed, capabilities, capacity and location. First speed, it is our goal to start making commercial quantities of Mirel as quickly as possible. At Antibióticos the fermentation capacity and key pieces of equipment relevant to our polymer recovery operation are available to us immediately and validation runs are being planned as we speak. We aim to be making demonstration quantifies or Mirel biopolymers in early 2013 and launching commercial supply later in 2013.”
“Second capabilities, through our technical due diligence at Antibióticos we are confident that their capabilities, skill set and equipment will be well matched to our technology for both fermentation and polymer recovery. Antibióticos has been producing fermentation based products for over 50 years and this experience is clearly reflective in their workforce and their approach to business. I will also mention that we found their management and staff professional committed to our relationship in a good cultural fit with out team.”
“Third capacity, we firmly believe that matching production capacity with market demand will result in commercial success. We expect that Antibióticos equipment to enable commercial scale capacity at our initial target of 10,000 metric tons or ₤22 million per year. As we described to you in January, we believe this is the proper scale to develop the initial market for Mirel and develop a solid platform for growth. We also anticipate being able to implement our latest technology with improved strains and recovery technology versus the 2006 vintage technology deployed with ADM.”
“And fourth location, the location of Antibióticos manufacturing facilities in León, Spain places it within the world’s largest market for bioplastic Europe. The Antibióticos site is within 24 hours driving time of many of our EU customers, our warehouse as well as from our local offices in Cologne, Germany. This proximity will allow us to be very responsive to our European customers and shorten their supply chain. Of course we will also supply customers worldwide from this site and its location near the Coast of Spain is well suited for this purpose.So let’s turn to slide three, the accompanying slides. I’d like to discuss some of the business metrics associated with this initial production plan. While it is too early to give any specifics, as that is the purpose of the demonstration phase I can let you know how we’re thinking about it. On revenue, I touched on this earlier but our experience with Mirel, a new material suggest that 10,000 tons or 22 million pounds annually is a good starting point for polymer commercialization.”
“With the completion of the demonstration phase, we expect to enter into the second phase, a definitive contract manufacturing agreement for supply of Mirel biopolymers to serve Metabolix’s customers worldwide. This phase will consist of the installation of any needed equipment as identified in the demonstration phase, commissioning and integration of production into our supply chain for Mirel biopolymer resins. We aim to have this completed later in 2013.”
“I will remind you that in the first half of 2012, we engaged in extensive discussions with more than 10 perspective manufacturing and commercialization partners for biopolymers, based on the strong outpouring of interest following the exit of ADM from the joint venture. As we narrowed our selection to Antibióticos for this initial production, we also engaged in a review of manufacturing options around the world that could be utilized for industrial scale production of PHA materials.”
“Given the freedom we now have with regards to technology deployment and the dialogue we have established with a number of highly capable parties, we can see some of these sites factoring into our longer term corporate growth. We’ve established some very good relationships, which we did not have a year ago during our site selection process and we’ll maintain active communications with these firms in the future.”