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Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. Message Board

blue_devil_ninetynine 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2015 9:55 AM Member since: Oct 24, 2003
  • Reply to

    Huawei LTE Smartwatch

    by blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 28, 2015 8:29 PM
    blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Mar 2, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    I agree! Disappointing that Sequans is not in this particular device, but really good to see LTE-only starting to take off as a category. Certainly grounds for optimism.

  • blue_devil_ninetynine by blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 28, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    Looks surprisingly good. Sequans inside perhaps?

  • Reply to


    by blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 13, 2015 2:24 PM
    blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 13, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    I wouldn't call myself a high roller, nor would I assume that I must be doing something right. :) I have an irresponsibly high % of my stock portfolio invested here, although it's not all that high a % of net worth. I tend to hold a very small number of concentrated positions, but I tend to hold for the long term, and I therefore select companies / spaces with what I believe to be positive long-term dynamics. I've been in SQNS a couple of years, although a portion of the position was added within the last year at around $1.50, and then again around $1.20. I still believe this is very high-risk, but again, I'm in it for the (relatively) long haul. Good luck to you both.

  • blue_devil_ninetynine by blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 13, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    This thing is flying up much faster than I'd expected. Up 20 cents again today would indicate at least to me that someone knows something beyond what was said in the conference call. Can't say for sure, but I guess we'll all find out soon.

    I'm only back to my average cost basis on my 420K shares, but it's been a good week that I can't complain about, and I look forward to our prospects over the coming 12 months. The reason I bought this in the first place is because I like the underlying industry dynamics, and while there was and still is significant risk associated with it, it seems we just MAY be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

    Good luck longs!

  • blue_devil_ninetynine by blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 5, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    "In addition, discussions with several potential strategic partners are continuing. When finalized, these alliances are expected to contribute financing and incremental revenue."

    Sounds like they are planning/hoping to sell a minority stake to a device-maker. I think the hope is to get a better valuation than what they'd get with a public offering at this point.

  • Reply to

    Ragman0327 and sqns_makemerich

    by sbstock26 Feb 3, 2015 10:02 AM
    blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 4, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    sqns_makemerich, all you did was repeat the company's projections and analyst estimates. In fact your Q1 estimate is higher than the consensus Q1 estimate. The real question is where this is headed in Q2 and beyond. You're absolutely right in observing that revenues would have to take off extremely quickly to avoid another round of debt or equity issuance in the next three months. I'd say that's almost certain to happen, but I also think it's priced into the stock price at this point.

  • Reply to

    Raining on the Parade

    by tamborayguira Feb 3, 2015 8:42 PM
    blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Feb 3, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    I think you're right. The announcement, while interesting, still didn't reflect committed unit volumes and revenue. I suspect many will find Q1 guidance underwhelming, and the stock will suffer as a result.

    Why am I saying this despite having a huge long position? Because what I say won't matter in the long term, and I'm holding for the long term.

  • blue_devil_ninetynine by blue_devil_ninetynine Jan 23, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    I am a very large shareholder of SQNS, but I have to say that the recent stock price movement is not encouraging. The pre-conf-call movement has been a depressingly good predictor of CC outcomes over the last year, and I think this one will be no exception. I think the stock price has declined to reflect expected dilution, so that's what we'll probably see. They had previously said that Q1 would be slightly weaker than Q4 because of seasonality, so the need for capital isn't all that surprising.

    That said, the reason I'm holding my SQNS position is because I haven't seen any signs that their belief in the underlying business dynamics is false. The IoT (and 4G LTE with it) are a big trend this year, and activity does seem to be picking up. There have been no management departures that I'm aware of, which would signal a sinking ship. We haven't seen any disgruntled employees (or former employees) on this bulletin board, which might have indicated layoffs as a last-ditch effort to stay alive. The four employee reviews I see on glassdoor are pretty recent and are actually quite positive when compared to most other organizations. All in all, the signs remain positive. So while I consider this a HIGHLY speculative investment at this point (more so than when I bought over a year ago), I intend to hold and see what happens in 2015.


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