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Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Message Board

blueboxvalue 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 20, 2014 5:54 PM Member since: Apr 28, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by blueboxvalue Mar 19, 2014 1:03 PM
    blueboxvalue blueboxvalue Mar 20, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Thanks. Following this logic, if they can sell the company within the next few months, they would probably get a pretty nice price for it. $5 per share for every $1 billion in cash on hand (180 Mil shares outstanding). Can't believe that after everything we went through a few weeks ago, 1st quarter earnings are coming out in only 5 weeks.

  • blueboxvalue by blueboxvalue Mar 19, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    Long time follower of the drama on this board; first time poster. Just a thought: The company has approx. 2.5B in cash, another 3.5B in fixed assets and other assets. This is offset by approx. 6B in liabilities resulting in a breakeven book value for the company as a whole as of 12/31/13. Going under the assumption that there is a good chance the company is going under, it seems that the pros are valuing the company as follows:

    Fair value of the assets (including the off-balance sheet intangibles) are approximately $2-3B higher than their book values, so if the Company burns through their cash, the asset sales may still yield some positive return to the equity investors. There can also be a tiny portion of the market cap allocated to the chance that the company can turn itself around or maybe get sold for a slight premium.

    What I don't understand though is how can they pinpoint the value of the company in such a tight range of approx. $180 million. This is a company with $6 billion in assets, half of which are noted at their historical cost, which may vary wildly (for the good or for the bad) compared to their fair values. One would think that the many institutions out there would have very different valuations on the company, resulting in massive stock price swings. Yet, excluding the activity this past Friday and Monday, its been trading in an extremely narrow range since earnings were announced. I guess the only real answer is what people on this board have been claiming, that the stock price is being heaving manipulated by MMs.

    Question is: Are they trying to keep the price artificially low so they can accumulate massive amounts of shares (which will result in the ensuing massive short squeeze when they're done), or are they trying to keep the price higher than it would ordinarily be in order for the institutions to be able to sell and still walk away with something?

  • blueboxvalue by blueboxvalue Jul 11, 2013 12:25 PM Flag

    Any thoughts as to the two 250,000 share lots that just traded? Is something big happening soon, or perhaps its just switching assets between funds? Volume otherwise has been exceptionally small lately.

  • blueboxvalue by blueboxvalue May 13, 2013 4:39 PM Flag

    Reading the earnings report, I couldn't have anticipated a better quarter. Loss was significantly lower than anticipated, sales of Oxtellar are picking up nicely, cash burn is expected to be $10 million less that anticipated last quarter, and most importantly, management does not anticipate requiring any additional capital!

  • My initial reaction to reading the news was quite negative. $75 million is a lot and this comes on the heels of a huge offering just a few months ago (when will the cash burn end?).... My second reaction was that this may very well be a good thing. When the Company announced earnings last month, management mentioned that they expect the cash to last only into the 4th quarter, which led to an immediate price decline to the mid-$5's on the assumption that significant future share dilution would occur. With this latest offering however being a debt offering, not an equity offering which would dilute shares, it seems like we'll be seeing less dilution than previously expected, and although they are convertible, we don't have the details on the pricing yet, so i think it's safe to assume that at least a portion of the debt will not be converted (unless the Company does extremely well in which case everyone is happy anyway). My third reaction was that I believe both of the above are correct. We can probably expect less dilution, but It still seems a bit early for the announcement, unless perhaps they are running out of cash a lot sooner than previously expected (which is probably what led to today's decline). I'm now hoping the bad news is behind us and we can look forward to successful trials and product approvals in the next few months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SUPN
8.26+0.07(+0.85%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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