it wasn't clear to me that you were comparing alpine's current performance versus their own past performance. you might have said, alpine made 8% in 2012 versus losing 15% in 2011. but instead you compared it to hedge fund performance. that made me think 'relative' to hedge funds, not 'relative' to alpine.
on a side note, many hedge funds are long/short and i can understand some hedge funds not performing all that good in 2012 as the US market was up 16% (and europe up almost 20%). their shorts probably didn't work out. gold was also not a big winner for the hedge funds in 2012. but alpine is 100% long so one would hope they perform closer to their benchmarks.
banker, i'm glad to see you are making some money on AOD. it is not an easy thing to do - although it may be easier now than before. as i noted in my other post in this thread, i got stopped out. if the market takes a dip, i'll likely buy back in as long as the discount is still 13% or so.
i got stopped out at 4.05. got the feb div so got almost 4.08 btwn cap gains and dividend. i may buy back in but holding off for a bit right now.
remember my 5% 'profit' was for a two to six week trade (which ended up at 8 weeks and was less than 5% !!!!). some of the stock names you mention have decent yields but you'd have to hold for the entire year to get the dividend. if you held for two to eight weeks, you might not even collect a single dividend and would have to rely on capital gain.
the bottom line on my trade is what i hoped would happen did not happen. the discount didn't really close much (roughly 14% to 13%). while i managed a gain, it was mainly a result of rising stock prices (not narrowing of discount). take a look at BOE back in nov, it traded down to a 15% discount and was back to 10% within two months. i played that one (which also had a div cut) and it worked out - the discount narrowed. not sure why it didn't happen with AOD. maybe investors like blackrock more than alpine (which is understable given the history).
here are some data points. so far this year, XAODX is up 6.7% and AOD is up 4.3%. SPY is up 9.5% and EZU is up 2.4%. 90% of alpine's assets are in US and european stocks so alpine's NAV seems to be performing okay relative to SPY and EZU, they aren't beating the averages but they aren't really lagging either.
AOD hasn't done as well as the NAV as investors are probably a little hesitant to jump in on this due to the historic trainwreck of 2008-2012.
i went long AOD on jan 23 when the dividend cut was announced. since that time, the NAV (XAODX) is up 3.9% while SPY is up 4.4% and EZU is up 0%. only a two month timeframe but they've done pretty good against the averages with their total return almost 4% while euro stocks have returned nothing (euro stocks are about 40% of their portfolio). and AOD is up 5% since jan 23, using 4.12 for the current price of AOD. when i bought AOD i set 4.12 as my exit price but i'm going to continue to hold. the NAV has beat the averages (blend of SPY and EZU) for the last two months. that is a rare event for alpine, but it is only two months...... plus AOD is still trading at a discount of more than 13% against NAV. i think 10% is a reasonable discount assuming the NAV is flat to higher for the period. said another way, 10% discount is reasonable as long as they 'earn' the dividend they pay out.
i hope i'm not getting greedy but i'm going to hold and hope to see north of 4.20 as the discount approaches 10% (4.29 is 10% discount to current NAV of 4.76). i did put in a stop loss today at 4.05 so i may get stopped out if the market dips.
2012 was not a good year for alpine. they had 50% of their assets in US based stocks and 40% of their assets in euro stocks. SPY was up over 15% in 2012. EZU was up over 20% in 2012. i would characterize performance as follows: if alpine NAV (plus divs) was up 20% i'd say that had a great year. if they were around 15%, i'd say good year. if below 10% i'd say bad year. alot of investors lagged the averages in 2012 (you note the hedge funds) but anything under 10% is not good.
in another thread i make some comments on 2013. this year is looking alot better than last year.
i tried to post this several times in the other thread but it never made it. not sure what happened so i started a new thread (for all i know it will be gone in a few days like my other post). in any case, kevin and jill are both gone. not sure why alpine told one poster that kevin is still managing AGD.
Alpine Woods Capital Investors, LLC (Alpine), the investment adviser to the Alpine Funds, announced today a new investment team for its Dynamic Dividend Funds that it
believes will enhance and broaden the portfolio management of the funds. The changes are effective
immediately and include the following funds: Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD), Alpine Global
Dynamic Dividend Fund (AGD), and Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund (ADVDX/ADAVX) (the “Funds”).
The new investment team is led by newly appointed co-portfolio managers Joshua Duitz and Brian
Hennessey, who are responsible for the day to day management of the portfolios, and have a combined 30
years of industry experience. The investment team also includes experienced Alpine portfolio managers and
research analysts, who will provide analysis and recommendations regarding the sectors they cover.
Importantly, the team includes Samuel A. Lieber, CEO, Stephen A. Lieber, CIO, and Bruce Ebnother, Senior
Investment Risk Strategist, who will provide strategic oversight. Mr. Duitz and Mr. Hennessey previously
served as associate portfolio managers of Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund. The previous co-portfolio
managers of the Funds are no longer part of the investment team.
i replied to this but my message didn't show up. even though the board shows the latest post as being from me on feb 20. is it me or is the site screwed up.
i looked at the prospectus and they recvd 5,000 shares (some thought this was 5 million) in connection with the IPO. and i'm not sure those were 'free'. they may have put some money into AOD just prior to the IPO, i didn't read all the details. suffice to say the 5,000 share position is tiny and meaningless.
i know it sounds good to say alpine has screwed investors, etc... believe me, i'm not a fan of their mgmt. but in reality, and what is quite humorous, is they really screwed themselves. they had 4 BILLION of assets in AOD alone and were collecting a 1% mgmt fee on that. now they are down to 1 billion so their fees have declined by 75% since the IPO. they can't pick stocks and they can't properly manage their own fund to keep their fee dollars at a reasonable level.
lieber probably bought for two reasons. one, the discount to NAV. it is the largest discount that AOD has had in years. have to go back to 09 for a larger discount. two, he wanted to show some support for the alpine funds after the dividend cut. it appears he didn't buy any AGD, which is only a 6% discount. so he went with AOD to show support.
what do you mean when you say 'free positions already owned by alpine" ?
i wondered about that. thought maybe i was put on 'ignore' and that was the reason. many of the old time AOD holders have me on ignore as they were in denial about the status of their investment.........
for some reason there was no reply button available on your response to me with respect to moving averages. i don't want to beat the horse to death but have you ever seen any written analysis on AOD or other funds with heavy turnover (excess of 100%) that brings up moving averages. and i mean from some semi-professional people (not americafirst, or some other posters on the board !!!).
some people like to look at the 50 day versus the 200 day. when they cross, it is considered a 'golden cross' or a 'death cross'. the golden is when the 50 day moves above the 200 day and it is supposed to suggest things are looking good for the stock. the death is the reverse, when the 50 day moves below the 200 day. of course it doesn't always work (AAPL did the death cross in mid dec at about $525 so that one seems to have panned out so far).
but as i said previously, if a fund is always buying/selling, the moving average is meaningless as it is tracking something different over time. the holdings need to be somewhat static for it to be relevant.
in your post you had this:
What stocks the funds hold at any given time is not relevant to the comparison; MA is an evaluation of pricing changes over time - irrespective of market volatility, individual stock selection, or any other criteria.
The idea of comparing MAs is actually rather pointless - unless of course, you're trying to determine how well an index fund tracks the index it is supposed to replicate.
neither of these make any sense at all and make me question your intelligence. i'm not trying to bash, just being honest. as an example if i want to see how well an index fund tracks the index it is supposed to replicate, i wouldn't look at a moving average. i'd look at the total return for the period for each of them.
NAV began the year at 4.54 and ended at 4.64 on 1/29/13. so they are plus .10 for the year and they paid out .055 in divs. so total return of .155 or 3.4% so far in 2013 (.155/4.54).
meanwhile, SPY is up 5.8% and EZU (europe) is up 5.1%. alpine typically has 90% of their assets invested in the US and europe. if you put 50k in SPY and 40k in EZU and 10k in other areas (and made nothing on this 10%), you'd have about 5k in profit right now or a 5% total return.
you might say, well AAPL is their largest holding (as of 10/31/12) so that has held them back. but in reality, AAPL has a larger weighting in SPY than it does in AOD's NAV.
now 3.4% against 5.0% isn't a huge difference for just one month into the year but it is definitely not something to get excited about. i'm still long AOD due to the discount but looking forward to exiting before the alpine trainwreck continues.
i'm in with average cost of 3.925 as noted on another thread. bought the discount, not going long alpine mgmt stock pics.
i don't buy your comment on the moving average. if i have a 5 stock fund that starts the year with WFC, GE, IBM, HD, and PM and then each quarter i change to 5 other stocks, the moving average is meaningless as it is tracking the movement of a different basket of stocks over time. obviously you can calculate the moving average but it doesn't mean anything and shouldn't be used in any analysis.
i bought another 1/4 position at 3.90 on wed and this morning i bought the last half. so i've completed the buy program assuming it doesn't tank from here (if it does i'll have to average down). bought the last half at 3.95 so i'm at 3.925 avg cost.
not long on alpine but long on the 15% discount. will sell with a 5% gain.
jill and her co-mgr were replaced a few months ago. they did not do a good job at alpine over the last few years. here is some data from the 10/31/12 annual report on AOD (not AGD but performance was similar). this is the three year total return, per annum (dividends and capital appreciation).
AOD NAV up 2%
AOD stock price down 8%
S&P500 up 13%
MSCI all country world (ex-japan) up 9%
investment mgrs are evaluated on their ability to generate returns in excess of certain benchmarks. in this case they use the S&P500 and the MSCI all country world (ex-japan). as you can see they did not do well against those.
i remember 'amorganoo' from the good old days, just before AOD cut the div from .12 to .055. at that time i had organized the AOD board members into three categories. genius, bagholder, and neophyte. 'amorganoo' was in the neophyte category. it appears that status is accurate based on the recent posts.
my guess is 'americafirst' didn't make a buy at 3.85 as advertised on a different thread. good to bring up posts from the past to expose the level of intelligence. i'm still waiting for 'americafirst' to explain how technical analysis, like moving averages, applies to AOD. i don't think a fund with 400% turnover in their portfolio can be analyzed with a moving average. you need a single stock or ETF that tracks an index (eg, holdings don't change).
no i haven't been to investor village but i appreciate the insight and recommendation. it looks like AGD is taking the bigger hit today so it may finally trade to a 10% discount. i'll never know how it held up so long.
i got in AOD at 3.90, 1/4 intended investment. i'd hate to have to hold it for more than one month but you never know. this div capture thing is worthless but the 15% discount is pretty steep. will never be a home run but i hope a nice solid single.