Housing may get the 1-2month bump with rising rates motivating ready buyers but won't last long and refi's are done(already)
Yep it'll be interesting to watch this summer. One eye on Fed the other on Japan. Then China, Euro . . . if you have more eyes
now the opposite.
ugliness brewing in the far East. JGB's more important than FED it seems. unwinding carry trades will drive rates skyhigh around the world.
could be a fun couple of days
if you consider workforce participation we are basically flat and real unemployment 10%.
you can say Unemployment is 0% if you want to but in the end it's still less people working for flat to declining wages.
Back to where we started- no way to grow without Fed printing and inflating bubbles
lowering rate(QE) in any fassion was always used to buy time during a downturn to encourage investment and hiring. but after 5 years of the most aggressive policies we still hover near recession by most counts.
Hopefully this data is bad enough to get us to 1675 today. we really needed 380-390k on initial claims to get a good 1% rally, we'll see but numbers were too good to get a bigger rally.
Silver -the FED is never going to say "sell your stocks by X date because we are goiing to end/taper QE".
Just like last summer they didn't say "buy all the stock you can by X date because we are going QE crazy"
They start small way ahead of time dropping small clues and get clearer as time goes by. IE raise or LOWER QE, use their SHILL Hilsenrath to plant seeds so martket doesn;t react all at once.
The fed said increase or decrease but they only meant decrease. To increase QE is not practical-
1- not much left to buy
2- the need to 'increase' would prove the ineffectiveness of the current concept and the hawks would be impossible to ignore.
wow 3 bucks over yesterdays high. what an upgrade. sounds like a huge sell rating.
so far its just Europe effing themselves, wait til the Russians take revenge.
time to start a 'dead pool' contest for Eurocrats 'committing suicide' over the next few months.
and I'll sell you all the eur/jpy you can buy at 1.24. that must be a great deal since you are looking at fridays quotes.