Stocks do hit 52 week low now and then. AAPL could hit 52 week low if a crash comes and sustains. Because there has no 10% correction in the past three years at least, a crash is very likely and it is more likely a sustainable crash meaning it drops lower for the next 6 months after the crash.
If you are in the margin, you will be wiped out all of your money. Sell some shares today to not be in margin.
XOM reached five hundred billions cap in the peak. Adjusted for the inflation, it is about the same size as AAPL now. History repeats itself. At that time, I remember everybody loved XOM and had it in their portfolio because analysts said it will earn much more once oil is 300 dollars a barrel.
People bought TWTR at $41 last Friday thought they bought bargains. Just to see it gapped down on Monday. If you lost money on AAPL, stay on sideline until it is clear it won't drop every day in May.
If a stock market crash happens, you may lose 90% in some smaller tech stocks such as TWTR, just like in 1999. But in the worst scenario, AAPL will only lose 50%.
People expected the same thing after NFLX and AMZN earnings, just to find out AAPL isn't the same thing. Too many weekly calls sold this week. MM have to hit call buyers hard, even those buy conservative In-the-money calls.
Professionals are lighting up stocks, especially the over-owned AAPL, in preparation of a stock market crash in May/June. You should do the same, not buying their shares.
I see AAPL buyback program will kick in only at $118 or $115. Probably a good call for Tim Cook if not the long-due crash is imminent. Imagine Tim buy back a lot of shares at $125, then the 20% stock market crash happens next week and wipe another 20% or 25% of AAPL share price.
If it fails to defend that line, see $120 before this week ends.
I said tomorrow it will close below $129. My best guess is $127.50. Probably test $125 before Friday.
Sell in May and go away.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Two days ago, I saw on CNBC's Fast Money. The trade caught my eyes because I agree with him that 10 cent for such contract is cheap. He said buy May 15 TWTR $40.50 for only 10 cents. One trader bought 5,000 such contracts for only $50,000. At today's low $38.50, that 5K contract is worth one million dollars.
I did not see he sold the lot though, but a few May 15 strike $40 contracts did get sold at $2, the cost for $40 strike is also 10 cents. For these traders, 1900% return is not bad.
It was leaked first. So they have to release early because the rumor is true. The lucky ones got out in that 10 minutes window then the stock was halted.
Two days ago, that Syracuse graduate trader advised to buy TWTR June puts $40.50 for ten cents. He spent $50K to buy 5000 contracts (500,000 shares). It should be worth 20 times (from 10 cents to 2 dollars) today. Cool one million dollars profits after 2 days.
If TWTR drops to $36 as he predicted, his $50,000 will grow to $3,000,000.
Sentiment: Strong Sell