Best thing we can do is to partner Prophage to Roche and let them take it the rest of the way.
Then, we do trials with them involving Prophage, Avastin, and our Checkpoints.
Maybe they'd get interested and buy us out.
HerpV, Prophage for glioma, CMV vaccine from 4-Antibody.
HerpV and CMV to GSK. Prophage to Roche.
HerpV....GSK is the leader in Herpes. They are involved with Genocea...but who knows ?? Might be the way for them to eliminate the competition early on by tieing up ours.
CMV...GSK needs all the vaccines it can get...esp after buying that company in Japan, last year.
Prophage in Newly-Diagnosed.....FDA wants a PIII....for what purpose, who knows ?? Since we're already involved with Roche on the Recurrent Glioma side, why not go all in and let them take the Newly-diagnosed to the house, too.
We could get 20-40 milliuon upfront for any of these, plus milestones, plus royalties and have the big company do all of the work. Then, we could bank the up-front cash and put Dr. Stein to work concentrating on the Checkpoints.
I'm thinking we might get a 1 Billion dollar phone call from GSK.
They came after us two years ago. We're much more relevant now.
I don't know if GSK has a checkpoint program....everyone else does.
The key to this whole movement was BMY's Yervoy.
In the past, chemo got a 10% response rate for advanced melanoma.
Yervy has gotten 40-50% response rate with a 10% "cure" rate.
The advance in technology here is like the difference between the sword and shield of the Romans and gunpowder and guns.
This is a serious point of inflection in the cancer industry, folks.
We seem to be holding a hot hand.
Costim went to NVS for 500 million and it was a 2-year old company with two checkpoint inhibitors.
500 million to us would mean a current share price of 10.00.
We have many more checkpoint inhibitors from a company that was three times as old as CoStim.
We have a pipeline that's deep and advanced. We have royalty agreements for QS-21.
We have 50 million in cash.
Why are we at $5.00 ???
We're easily 20.00.
It's going to take a while to develop the checkpoint inhibitors. In the mean time, we partner Prophage and
HerpV to raise cash. I think 4-Antibody has a CMV vaccine ready to partner, too.
Or...you could sell the whole company.
First phone call would have to be to GSK. Second phone call to Roche.
Me too. Wow...the guy really knows the Checkpoint stuff. Full development of any of it will take a while.
Sounds like AGEN has taken a completely new direction.
In the CC, they mentioned that everything else could be partnered now. Prophage, HerpV. Sounded to me like QS-21 might be sold at some point to GSK.
So...the checkpoint stuff will be the main thing. The other things can be partnered, giving us cash when we need it.
That's how I read the CC.
I don't know anything about 4-antibody's side effects. The drug class...as a whole...carries warnings about auto-immune diseases....colitis, Lupus, etc. You would expect that considering that you're messing around with the immune system. Merck's entry into this class claims to have fewer side efects than Yervoy.
Our cancer vaccine...and others like it...work well on younger tumors. As a tumor ages it developes a defense system against the T cells. Checkpoint Inhibitors, like the 4-antibody products and like Yervoy from BMY, knock down the defense systems of the older tumors. Then....you give our vaccine...like Prophage..to rally the immune system... to kill the tumor using the patient's own defense system. You have to knock down the door first...and then you send the troops in.
When Garo chose to disclose that they had HerpV in the works it was 1-2 days before a CC.
So...I'm thinking that if he has something substantial to announce, re: 4-Antibody assets...or anything else..a PR might come on Mon. or Tues.
Yeah...I'm thinking next week should be fun.
I sure would like to hear how AGEN pulled off this deal for 4-Antibody:
1) How did they learn about the company ?
2) How did they know it was for sale ?
3)How much of it was Dr. Stein ?
4) What products can we partner and how soon ?
It seems like the whole thing just came out of nowhere.
It feels, to me, like it was something that Dr. Stein brought along with him when he came on-board.
Swissee... Remember...Hyam Levitsky is head of the Cancer Immunology Div. of Roche/Genentech and he is a former Board Member of AGEN. Roche is a very logical suitor for AGEN.
....will be achieved with positive HerpV booster data.
I don't think any of us are expecting anything from the Mage3 NSCLC data.
If HerpV can approach 50% reduction in shedding and viral load, I think the whole company can be sold.
Insiders and finance people all have their shares and options.
Deep pipeline. Lots of data and expertise. No debt.
Big Pharma needs us.