As long as the trendline stays intact and higher low are made. Oil's bounce from the low in 2009 had a handful of large down days 5+ percent; but there were quick snap back rallies and the up days outnumbered the down days by a large margin. I'm starting to sound like I have a bias...
All valid points. The market doesn't HAVE to do anything, though. There doesn't have to be a "capitulation bottom", there doesn't have to be a retest, there doesn't have to be a silencing of bottom callers. As far as I'm concerned, every time a new low is made a test is made and it fails. There's been plenty of failed tests, but tests nonetheless.
Inventory numbers aren't too far off the estimates (the expectation is that there is still a major glut), the dollar becomes weak, the global economy shows signs of strength, and the contango narrows. I feel the forward looking function of the market is starting to kick in. Of course, oil could trade in a range of $50-54 for a little bit before breaking out or to the downside. The path of least resistance is up, imo. If we are lucky enough to get $60-65 in short order, some profit taking would be obvious. And I'm tired of hearing the adage: "everyone says a bottom is in so its not" That's #$%$. It's just that everyone know has a voice with internet, tv, and twitter.
All I see and hear is oil headed to $20. That to me is crowded sentiment. I understand that many of these predictions are from experts, but did any of these "experts" predict oils drop from 100 to under $50?