this getting ready to go the other way....once trading shorts mostly cover.
sell on way up and buy on way down...world needs lower oil price to stimulate weak economies world wide.
Doug, Perm production still growing...look at OXY headlines on yahoo...
Not to mention even SD was guiding higher 1 st qtr production...The question is how much of that line of credit did SD used this last qtr. If as SD guidance then SD will have even higher debt levels...When this turns down look out...IMO... I think SA will not cut production in June as SA still is increasing production and negotiated lower services contracts.
opec 31 mill b/d EIA estimated 29.5 mill b/d as of March 2015...And SA is getting 20% reduction on ri costs offshore contracts already signed for less money.
Check RDC EVS etc...OXY not planning on a decrease as oxy claims perm wells can be deepened at little cost to extend production(cost 10.00 boe or less) per oxy.
However Yemen is sort of offline a few hundred K's a day.
Okie dumb...If ya do not know SA increasing production and OPEC.
The market has not read those tea leaves yet...Then US production growing too...Here: GOM coming online expected to hit 1.5 mill b/d and 1.6 mill b/d 2016 if not more. search it. This pop I do not believe will last long....now lets see if yahoo posts this last time it did not.
You realize some miners are on a tear too...Too convenient for me.
At this point I call the up move speculation and not based on solid ground oil moves up 15.00 a barrel next few months. SA talking says no. Slow economies say no. Increased production outside USA says no. If al that is wrong then I missed my buying opportunity....Crude up 56.23 closed just now. However I do not see how this is anywhere close to what SD needs.
You see those picks of GS. Rice large adjustment on cash flow(need DD) issuing 400 mill 7.5 % notes. RSP issuing 4 million shares at 25.00...Fang forward pe 50 by yahoo...Now the bankers may use this one to merge with other companies I think because of such an high share price....I think institutions looking to lower their stakes in these...
" however, according to the IEA. It expects demand to hit 93.6 million barrels a day in 2015, -- up by 90 kilobarrels a day on its earlier forecast.
Yet supply still rose - by around 1 million barrels a day in March, to 95.2 barrels a day - with OPEC production recording its highest monthly hike in close to four years, the IEA said.
"Months into the process of market rebalancing from the oil price collapse, one might be hoping for more clarity on supply and demand impacts. Yet, in some ways, the outlook is only getting murkier," the agency said in a release.""
Ah Doug, ATP shorts held out for at least two plus years and they suffered runs to 18 and 20.00 but ATP bk in the end....
SD in trouble once their hedges run out. and i think oil stays in this range mostly the rest of the year...there maybe a brief spike in oil price but it will not hold as Saudi Arabia saying let market forces control oil price. And the lower price will help promote an extension in a DEMAND PEAK which SA is afraid of....just saying....
Did you read SA's thinking? Namimi, market completion no more swing player, (4 /12/ 15)... I think people whom think oil recovers soon is very wrong... better read that article SA extending the age of oil..SA has 12 million B/D capacity....i would post link but we never know whether yahoo will allow the link or not.... small clip below,
"Last week, in a speech in Riyadh, Naimi said Saudi Arabia would stand “firmly and resolutely” with others who oppose any attempt to marginalize oil consumption. “There are those who are trying to reach international agreements to limit the use of fossil fuel, and that will damage the interests of oil producers in the long-term,” he said. "
""Saudi officials were in a state of “near panic” last summer, when they recognized how quickly demand growth in China was leveling off, in part because of persistently high crude prices, says Ed Morse, Citigroup’s head of commodities research. “Naimi saw the era of frantic fixed-asset investments in China was over,” says Morse, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for international energy policy, who still communicates regularly with Gulf Arab officials. “That translates to the end of rapid urbanization, the end of doing things in unbelievably energy-intensive ways.”
Substitution of lower-cost fuels is also taking a toll. Chinese diesel demand, after rising an average of 8 percent a year for a decade, actually fell in 2013 and 2014. The International Energy Agency attributes this partly to the country’s rapidly expanding fleet of natural gas vehicles. Chinese demand for oil this year is expected to rise to 10.6 million barrels a day, an increase of 2.6 percent, or half the average annual growth of the past decade and one-sixth the rate in 2004.
Telli, underwater, yeah, I not happy I sold TRQ today as it is higher....Of course I was thinking I sell to soon, if you don't then I'd wrong too. lol
Oil sand production: """Despite today's depressed oil price environment, a robust growth profile remains in place for oil sands related production volumes," said Rick Wise, Gibson Energy's Chief Operating Officer.""
What a laugh..it small... Next if and when production drops just how is that good for oil company income...Not enough to keep market price much higher and less production also means a reduction in revenues on a company by company basis...Dropping production is not a growing company.
Food for thought: SA has increased production by 500k b/d....Let's see what the world market will do. Also Basil(sp) III requiring higher capital limits is kicking in and continues thru 2018; so, we get another tightening cycle? Boy the last on e basil II in 2004-5 to implement mark to market in 2007 and postponed in USA to 2009 really was a ride....Dang Central bankers: Whom are private by the way....Look up basil 1 sent France and Japan into a downturn and I am not sure Japan ever got out of it...
""BASEL II. In 2004, the same group met and agreed to Basel II (“The Return of Basel I”)– which required banks to value their capital based on market values, or “mark-to-the-market.” These rules were approved for the US on November 1, 2007. The declining housing market set off a chain reaction due in part to Basel II which banks knew was coming and constricted credit in anticipation of. The next month, December, 2007 the stock market collapsed and the Great Recession began in earnest. This should have been no surprise to the Japanese, nor to the BIS bankers. Full implementation of Basel II was subsequently delayed in the US until 2009. Basel II has been blamed for actually increasing the effect of the housing crisis as banks had to reduce lending to increase their capital as the value of mortgages they hold declined. This produced a downhill snowball effect on home prices and then on nearly everything else as lending and the economy contracted.
boot1BASEL III. Not content with two massive regulatory failures, the same bankers have now produced Basel III (“The Revenge of Basel I & II”). Like Basel I & II, Basel III increases capital requirements yet again, in a series of steps beginning in 2013 with the start of the gradual phasing-in of the higher minimum capital requirements not completed until 2018. The BIS bankers have imposed this and are forcing their home governments to get in line, ""
Look up money masters
I do not think your "magic box" is working well. get a new mathematician.
OT: I sold trq. last night limit sell at 3.79 and broker sold it this am for 3.80.
TRQ down some today...anyway now i am ready for the Fire Sale that should be coming in oil's....this qtr. going to show worse than 4th qtr earnings....And the second quarter may be a repeat of this quarter when earnings hit in July August, BWDIK....
Well, like i said i would not touch SD...I'll let you money masters play.
Maybe Greece will exit the money master banking. Or Euro and if they do I suggest issuing currency directly and not to use the note/bond money master scheme....In the theme of the Greenbacks of the civil war...but the money boys finally got us...So really we are toast...Slaves and we do not know it. smile, stay away from debt or they will pull the rug from under your foot.
no need to buyback stock ever.... Use the money as a special dividend instead....Buybacks allow over use of giving stock options to the executives...I mean really, you think a CEO that makes 10 mill standard of living is really less than one making 60 million or a 100 million?
Like when i was a child and played Stock Market Game. To win was 100k...after we got good we could do it in ten minutes. We started playing to hundred's of million and billions...At some point, it was not even worth the time to keep track of a million.....Geez, some of these executives could be paid less...Quit diluting shareholders with options....IF a company must pay executives in stock let the company buy the stock on the open market; hence, no need for stock buy back then, right? That way executive does not get option priced below current stock price either....They really do ream the shareholders....
Airborne pollutants, the list there is Gas idiot. Every-time a gas stove is turned on or gas heater light airborne pollutants of the type you listed in the post goes airborne...I guess if a little is released at well well then. I would tell you the consumer releases more than the well head.
First para: Fracking from well to formation...OK get it in your head the well bore is drill into the formation....not outside the oil formation and usually mostly in the middle...he fracking just makes give the oil a way to flow to the well bore which is already in the middle of the oil gas formation.
Enviro morons...too much of anything is bad for the Earth including humans....Human waste is a major pollution especially when 1 plus million humans in a city dump their waste into a river....Hence waste control and clean up but humans did not quit dumping waste into the rivers did they?
These anti fracking people have not a clue how things work and ought to be sent to school in the sciences and math, no drama class for them.
""Oil is denominated in USA dollars.
by energy_buzz • Mar 31, 2015 7:46 PM Flag
When the dollar is strong compared to other currencies, it makes oil cheaper in the U.S. but more costly in many other countries. And that puts a crimp in global demand
OIL IS GOING TO FALL HARD EACH DAY AS IT GOES AROUND THE WORLD TO SELL AND SELL TO A DOLLAR THAT IS ON FIRE! SO ARE PREDICTING THAT THE DOLLAR COULD REACH 1.20 IN VALUE!
THIS WILL CAUSE OTHER COUNTRIES AND CURRENCIES THAT ARE WEAKER THAN THE AMERICAN DOLLAR TO BUY LESS OF THE OIL AND IN TURN CREATE AN EVEN MORE OVER SUPPLIED MARKET! THIS COULD LAST THROUGH THE REST OF 2015 AND INTO 2016 THEY ARE SAYING!