Spock....yes.....I ...........should be focussed on the entire forest..........and not just one tree! LMAO!
You would be right, hrdwkgdog !
I don't know! NG has yet to really hit a critical mass regarding usage yet we see GM and others rolling out new gas/natgas hybrids in 2014 and CLNE adding more and more stations as it builds out is National NG highway program.
NG is the future regardless of how one views the envirnomental issues and remains so until someone can develop a light weight, long range battery which isn't likely anytime soon.
Power generation nationwide and worldwide has shifted to NG as plants are built or upgraded. Trucking fleets are already converting over to NG for local driving, WM would be an example. Long distance trucking will move toward LNG which by the way we (the US) will also be exporting in the next 12 months as 4 other players begin to build their own export facilties in our oil region in the Gulf.
CHK would garner quite a goodwill premium given its size and current path of paying down debt and getting its house in order if you will.
Who are the supposed buyers? MAJOR OIL..and major oil has been around for over a century...now thru thick and thin......paying say 40 billion today is ALOT cheaper than CHK is going to be in 10 years IMO.
I'm surprised they didn't wait for SD to hit 8 before raising their target to 7 !! LMAO.....
ANALysts must live a very lonely life,,,,
OKAY, DON'T HATE the MESSENGER....thats me!
As a contrarian I might buy alittle on a Tapstone IPO...then average into it assuming all the numbers look good and ASSUMING T. Ward has hopefully learned he has to act in EVERYONE's interest, even shareholders.
I rode CHK in the late 1990's when it got down to 2 bucks and change. McClendon (sp?) and Ward had built CHK from nothing and turned it into the biggest NatGas Co in the US (or 2nd biggest behind Sw gas, can't remember).......CHK rose to 70 and change during the big NG price run.......but in the end, CHK was punished via poor governance and hopefully both Aubrey and Tom ward have learned a lesson and until they can convey as much, the masses will not follow them. Thats why I think by the time a Tapstone were to go public, there would be massive public disclosure on Ward's part as to how the company will be run.
However, I think Ward stays private...then sells before he gives in and retires if and when.......down the road.
Simply put, there are few industry insiders with Ward's experience, knowledge, and connections and even fewer who have built a giant from nothing. WE ALL know what Ward didn't do right and we all know how and why he was booted. The mere fact that SD appears to be flourishing with existing assets simply says Ward was definately barking up the right tree however, the extra-curricular activities and expenses were not shareholder friendly and because he failed to defend the interest of shareholders, he paid the price.
If he goes public, he will be questioned/tested etc. I think he stays private and runs things the way he wants too. For what its worth which I know......ain't much on the board! Anyways......
This is not advice and purely only IMHO....I like F...I see a 12 to 36 month hold and/or perhaps a keeper. Clouds on horizon, funding its pension and any/all typical risks from competition w/in the industry. F plans on pension funding being complete over next 2 years if memory serves....DIV due for a hike.....any upward move in rates helps fund said pension.
I think F doubles or triples over the next 36 months as world economy recovers then begins to excell as the newly developing middle class begins to consume! All seriously only IMHO......for what its worth
Wow...shows just how strong a negative grip naysayers/shorts had on SD. I like that data! Shows SDs move to 10 would be inline with its sector!
So sector movement along with new management, new direction, and attention to debt and production rates easily justifies the current moves and argues for more upward pressure! Thanks liljakr....helps round out the picture alittle bit!
Okay, depending upon ones timeline, SD is up a WHOPPING 30% from its holding pattern at 5 bucks. Energy demand is up, Cooperman has had some face time on TV and SD management seems to be winning over and converting former snipers into pathfinders!
Dogdecox, if true but certainly hedgies are known to be buying/have bought....SD. SD seems to have a fair value of 10 bucks. With earnings around the corner, good news will validate the current price moves and could add to the momentum.
If one wanted to sell SD in a buyout, the higher the price, the richer the goodwill premium in light of current and hopefully, continued price momentum.
I guess what I am saying is that there may be more to the recent price increase than we realize. It seems word has made its way into the hands of some buyers. Whether its a few gushers, or discoveries, or maybe even a buyout, or perhaps nothing more than pure rumor but, it seems the price move is due to something more than merely recovering from its GROSSLY undervalued range of the low 5's.
All IMHO of course and I am probably dreaming BUT.....it certainly fits the mold of what we are all seeing happen! Or so it seems possible! Again, all IMHO.........any other takes on the price movement?
Intelli.....passive/aggressive...baby talk like "...all you really smart investors..." don't wash here... without acknowledging your attitude as that of a DIKHED. For what its worth.....which is probably zero! Oh and all IMHO of course!
IMO Sd was never even close to bankruptcy....ASSETS IN THE GROUND. Ward became a target, hedgies decided the one way shareholders would vote for vhange was to deflate the share price....then they traded on 5-10% swings to keep their checkbooks whole.
Ward was THE FIRST to transform his virtually ALL NG company into an Oil and NG company, thereafter, others followed.
To be blunt, SD was never fairly valued at 4 to 5 bucks. Taking that as a background to my point, SD should be in the 7 to 10 range right now! It has the assets, it has a management crew that is alittle more user friendly with shareholders, analysts, and the industry.............and it appears SD might have morte assets than thought. As I said before, prosuction rates, cost controls, and the outlook going forward are going to take SD to the range it should be trading around.....which is in the 10 range.
Frankly, I don;t care about fair value except i would like to see the price reflect REAl fair value. Its the premium I want to see! Whther its a buyout, or, assets discovery.
One thing is clear now, production rates will continue to climb and, management has stated it is focussed on cost controls. These two dynamics have changed the game for SD and shareholders should be rewarded even more so than to date with this new management team.
Show me another gas and oil with similar assets in the ground as SD that has been stuck at 4 to 5 bucks!?
that was a PROTEST WARD share price....and nothing more........all IMHO of course.
Our politicians deserve every bit of what they are getting since they are the ones who built this Titanic of an economy. I would love to have all of Congress confined inside a warehouse. I would then offer up MOST, not all, GOPers a paintball gun and ask them to join me having some fun shooting as many DEMOs in the AZSSSS as I can ! LMAO!
Harry Reid...I would just give him a wedgie...then tell him to start running and play plink-a-butttttt on him! LMAO!
Great question. One thing is clear, if SD Leadership continues to show improvement in every measurable way, then one could say that SD is as cheap as its going to be right now short of market volatility! This forces anyone (if any) looking to buyout SD into full-court press mode!
I think its fair to assume that if this earnings report looks good, shows meaningful progress as mentioned, that analysts are going to ease up alittle bit and we may see some nice new price targets that more closely reflect "fair" value but this also depends greatly on the outlook going foward, of course. A nice surprise would be a gusher or two and/or, nicely increased production rates and perhaps an expanded picture of the reserve situation! Guess we'll see soon enough! All IMHO of course!
Cooperman has brought on more than a few investors new to SD. He is convinced a "fair" value is about 10 bucks. There is a big difference between a FAIR VALUE and the premium (goodwill) on a buyout if indeed, there are anyother OIL/NG players looking to EXPAND their FOOTHOLD in the region.
SD has shown it KNOWS the way to Miss./Lime profits and is therefore, IMO, part of the low laying fruit yet to be picked if you will!
However, setting aside any buyout talk, "fair value" does not in my view, price in future expectations ASSUMING increasing production rate, debt controls, expansion of known reserves....and alittle help from NG and OIL pricing!
Another way of looking at what Cooperman said, and I think he is spot on, is that SD is grossly undervalued, ignored, and rightfully so after what shareholders have been through over the last few years; HOWEVER, I think it is fair to say that SD Leadership is well on its way to turning the skeptics into fans! All IMHO of course.
Fair value is what SD should be trading at NOW.....IMO.......but I'll stick to 7 by 11-7 for now.......
payback....seriously, LMAO......wow!!!! Hey, go get some rest, breath deeply....skip the coffee......quit the meth....and try to relax, its only money......! LMAO!
STRIKE 3 baby! Check and checkmate! You are the one spewing the hatred, you and tampon! OOPS...sorry.....typo!