Naysayers and critics...you have a right to beat-up on SD...but many of your points are about as accurate as your ability to see into the future........NOT !
SD has an 11% Short positon....this position not so long ago was in the 40% range. Don't think for a minute that the MAJORITY of that SHORT Positon ISN'T held by the big players. Afterall, they do want to win and covering themselves via options reduces their risk.
For many, they are in the know, afterall, they hold a seat on the board. Protecting one's downside against a long postion is easy to run from if / when things turn around.
Ref. Buying back shares. It's not so much that SD is doing a buy back IMO...it is much more THAT THEY ARE IN A POSITION to do so in the first place! This is a RADICAL DEPARTURE from the days of T.W.
It is also the logical thing to do after a "run on the bank" ( if you will ) has deflated your stock price to unreasonably low levels AND.....while some call it a gesture......I think management views the price to be so cheap it is irresistable at these levels so WHY NOT? Pretty smart IMO. The buyback will have fractional benefits for shareholders and I seriously doubt we see the SHORT position move much at all, afterall, once again, most of that position is made up of the PROs. The little tail waggers will likely get body slammed again and finally give up after reading the HOW TOO book for options only to learn it is a pool of sharks and premiums for small position seldom really pay enough for the risk position taken. Even covered calls pay little these days in the way of premium unless one has scale.
So hats off to SD.......I think the sun shines again.......and I also think the day is coming when SD regains its footing and the doubters find another whipping post to sit on. All IMHO.....
It's time to lay this issue to rest. I am a VET, I have a Son who is a VET...and a Nephew who served several tours in Iraq. That doesn't give any of us a license to be a "D"-Head to others and it for sure does not give any of our relatives the right to be a "D"-Head to anyone else either. If they choose to stand up and defend the military that's their decision.
However, trying to substantiate on a fricking message board what is real and what is not is alittle difficult to say the least ESPECIALLY considering the SOURCE. So cleint9 if you have a Son and he served, hats off to him, I wish him well in life's journey.
HOWEVER, BS slingers have to assume all of their messages are met with doubt, distrust, and anyother negative interpretation their own behavior/posts lead too. Alittle manipulative in my view but hey, I'm just a casual observer......
This stock is so easily moved up or down by the option premium rakers that no one should be surprised by the volatility in this down oil market.
Further, the big boys doing the raking are likely keenly interested in seeing a productive buyback which means at low prices.
Finally, Stifel just upgraded SD on 2 SEPT '14 and I am fairly confident that they have access to more information than the average investor and KNOW what it means! Also, facing the back drop of softening energy prices, you can bet Stifel, a rather conservative investment banking firm IMHO , priced in a fiarly worst case scenario at least in the near term.
Naysayers are acting like the buyback is the last act of desperation being perp'd by a management group running away with its tail between its legs.
Simply put, this management team has made progress each and every qtr and there is no reason to assume this has changed. With this notion in mind, the color of the buyback takes on a whole new meaning than that which naysayers are trying to poison the well with....IMHO. To be sure, purely IMHO and nothing more.....
Wow......go get some help....politics shouldn't be skewing your judgement and consuming so much of your time. Live your life and leave everyone else alone! LMAO!
LMAO! Cleint,,,are you a comedian or half brain dead? I only ask because the three blind mice, Obama, Reid, and Pelosi had a chance that few in our nations history ever have, they controlled the hill and look where we are today! LMAO!!
DoltBAMA is by FAR, THEE worst IDIOT to ever hold the office, we get to watch him OJT on almost a daily basis! He is currently using the same power he tried to deny Bush...in fact he even floated a bill trying to block Bush from acting in a war zome without Congressional approval! LMAO! Now IdiotBAMA is doing the same. My oh my how the worm turns!
And Reid!? This guy could pay off our National Dent if he volunteered to become a MALE Prostitiute here in Nevada because the line of folks willing to PAY and do TO HIM what he has done to tax payers across the US would be endless! LOL! Oh and Harry! How many US troops died or were maimed by your enemy consoling/motivating phrase of "...the war is lost..." ?
Oh and Nancy? There is no deal too big for her to turn the way of her Husband or a close friend or relative! any kickbacks Nancy? Just wondering....oh I guess we'll find out! Oh and Nancy, how is it again that you are pro-union but the businesses YOU and YOUR HUSBAND own are prevented, BY YOU, from going Union?
Nancy has got to be the most irrational while being deliberately confrontational DWEEB to ever attain such a high level of influence.....but Obama takes the cake in this arena so she is second best...ooopppps! I mean second worse!
So Cleint9....whomever gets elected, let us all hope its not a LIB because LIBs MO of passing it NOW and figuring out a way to pay for it later has broken the financial back of our nation? Any questions?
Funny, I never took you for a tunnel visioned DWEEB LOVER ! LMAO!
RIP McRib..........WEN is doing it right! REAL pulled pork topped with slaw on a brioche bun......or a pulled pork cheeseburger......oh and pulled pork fries! Sauce choices are sweet, smokey, or spicey BBQ !!!
Just had a smokey pulled pork sandwich...........BOOM ! Out of the park like I stated above! The slaw closes the deal......and, it's messy, just like at home! Word to the wise......dress shirts, blouses, even a tie have a direct correlation on the likelihood that you will spill ! One of Murphy's unwritten postulates!
The SPONGE McRib is not even close to being in the same league! Buh bye McRib!
As I understand it, this is a limited time offer and currently only available in select stores...but nationwide in a couple weeks at all stores in Oct. !
WEN is taking fastfood to a new level, a higher level ! Innovation and imagination lead the way in what was once merely, The Burger Patch !
SHORTs....CUP CHECK...hope yer wear'in ' em cause you are about to get KICKED and KICKED HARD!
Well I think you're hitting on the correct direction, wrong mechanics in my view. Once SD announced a planned buy back, the big fish had a choice, help themselves by SHORTING the stock and drive that Price down allowing for more shares to be bought back ....while all along gaining on the price drop.
All accompanied by a run on Shorts once the price floor dropped out.
Or, the big fish could standby and take what comes, which, IMO never happens. Now add to this the hedgies (who are not long SD ) who love playing the naked short game....especially when the company/stock is SO SMALL they can lean on it for a small amount of risk and grab PERCENTAGE GAINS on a daily basis.....well I think they may have piled on and now that the price is so cheap, they have PERHAPS decided to own SD at these levels.
Now in order to appease Trmmara, all of the above is PURELY OPINION.....and SERIOUSLY, nothing more.
Trmmmmmmmara.....didn;t you once say you were a Queen LIB? Your intolerance of the views of others certainly validates as much.........ever hear of a CONTRARIAN?
Are you SHORT SD ? This would explain your persistent negative presence/postings.
LMAO! I prefer to give Ford Leadership, Mullay...and hard working FORD EMPLOYEES credit for Ford's performance.
OBAMA had NOTHING to do with Ford's success. In fact, Ford didn;t take the bailout. GM and Chrysler did take the bailout and if you'll recall, OBAMA asked Bush to commence with the auto industry bailout stating ti would be his first act as President if Bush did not bail them out.
Nope, SORRY.....Ford has done ALL of this ON THEIR OWN and JokeBAMA had NOTHING to do with it.
Global Warming thugs suggested large parts of California would be underwater by now, in 2014...instead we see a drought of epic proportions.
Last Fall Climatologist Thugs were stranded in an ice breaker while on their way to Antarctica for research. It took two ice breakers to get thru to rescue them.
The last 15 years the earths temp. has cooled........does this count for anything? LOL!
Previous doomsday scenarios addressing the polar ice cap melt forecasts have been proven wrong, very wrong, IE California is still above water!
Envirowackos at one time even suggested using plastic grocery bags instead of paper in order to save the trees! Of course the plastic grocery bags soon CHOKED our waste dumps. Then the brain trusts in SanFran said we should use paper bags once again and caught so much grief for the reversal that they then suggested using reusable cloth grocery bags! LOL!
I think the fact that Thug Climatologist got CAUGHT locked (in the ice!) in an ice breaker while headed to Antarctica to do climate research says all that needs to be said about the misdirected emotion the LEFTISTs have vocalized using Global Warming as their winning horse of an argument!
How does less than a century of observation suddenly become the baseline for moving forward, regarding climate change verses using the MILLIONS of years BEFORE Humans with the severe global temp changes our planet endured over those misslions of years?
This is nice. Between SDs relationships with OXY and REPSOL, combined with Lawler's INSIDE knowledge of SD......and BPs desire to spin-off its lower 48 ONSHORE unconventional assets that Lawler will head up......me thinks there is something at play..... .
Lets face it, with NG and OIL at these cheap levels, industry/sector consolidation makes more sense than even 6 month/ year ago!
AND...if one thinks NG will begin to proliferate usage wise........and demand for energy will only increase.....well then, now is the time to buy cheap assets!
Given SDs self sustaining operation A to Z.....this model can be applied across all non-conventional oil/NG sources/assets to INCREASE profit via the LOW COST model SD enjoys.
While there is no hard and fast rule of how a former employee will respond once given the chance to BUY OUT his former employer....one thing is certain, Lawler either LIKES or DISLIKES SD management/business model/assets. We shall see!
This move seems to highlight SDs operations as a plus and hopefully Lawler will want to DECORATE his new CEO office at BP onshore ! All IMHO...and purely speculation !
GULP ! With all the pontificating post-ers on the board I thought I might ask why SD sold off last August as well? I mean I am not a chartist but it somehow seems that ALONG with the market/sector so goes SD.
I could be wrong, maybe there is bad news in the wind. On the otherhand, if I am not wrong, then SD could be a second half year opportunity with this much of a drop in price.
Time will tell and the earnings next week should validate SDs upward trend in production, earnings etc. OR...maybe we are all in for some sideways perhaps even down news.
With drilling reports, it seems SD is on track to report upward earnings and hopefully, a matching upward forecast!
One thing is for sure, critics and naysayers are no better than the crow sitting on a fence waiting for time to take their view to the forefront regardless of how long it takes! AND...if they are so good, one has to wonder why they missed the big upward move.....were they drooling in the mirror over the SOMEDAY I will be right sentiment!????? LMAO.....if it keeps going down AGAIN....I may buy some more AGAIN ! For what it is worth and seriously ONLY IMHO.......and I could be totally wrong.....it wouldn't be the first time I discover I am in the middle of an L-Shaped ambush!
I keep hoping such stagnation means someone is talking to SD at a certain price range and if the stock runs up as I think it should, it diminishes the value of the buyout premium the higher that price moves toward 10! Or whatever price might be the target! Thus, the 6.50 range. As well as NG prices!
But so far, I have been proven wrong EVERYTIME! LOL!
The above is pure speculation and HOPE..........but there are a few things in our (shareholders) corner, there are a few successful HEDGIES in SD and SD management has shown SD is a winning/ongoing/growing interest in really, a little more than just one year.
Repsol is talking to Talisman (TLM) and I suspect it is talking to several smaller operators. If I'm not mistaken Repsol already has a relationship with SD via one of the Trusts....Sd spun out a couple years back.
I think one day we will all wake up to a nice surprise and I also think it's closer to happening today, then it has been in recent years because of the SD turn around we are all watching happen today! As I said before, we can all hope!!
The BooBirds have beem right for too long on this stock in most cases, for all the wrong reasons! I have always said it is all about the assets in the ground and SD has shown it can access those assets now and climb it's value in so doing!
We shall see, all IMHO....... wishful, hopeful, and perhaps correct but only time will tell !
The perfect storm, it's just that simple IMHO. Oil/energy sector takes a bath, geo-political events, ever increasing oil/energy production, slowing economic conditions in parts of the world, SHORT players PILING onto the likes of an SD, already existing large shareholders wanting a buyback at LOWER prices......and the company itself likely wanting lower prices for the buy back , logically.
Add to the above certain hedgies clearing the decks to meet liquidations as well as annual selling/balancing of taking profits and realizing losses.............watching the 30 day wash sale rules and cherry picking their way into lower priced positions they want to either resume or assume as a new position.............and well, the Perfect Storm.
The OIL sector is oversold......it took both the oil price drop and downward selling momentum on the chin and now we have seen across almost all sectors, such irrational price cleansing if you will all in preparation for the close of the year new highs in the view of many! Let's hope!
I think the tell tail sign in SD today is that it is up 8% +/- and Crude is down 4% +/-............all IMHO.....
F can not catch a break, and Wall Street has rendered it a serial under-performer via their own fearful expectations. Despite this, earnings are still forecast to move up 45% between 2014 and 2015. I expect we may see this move down alittle as well for no other rational other than fearing F150 Alum issues and a crowded US auto sales pace.
I think F is a good long term play...it is one of nthe stocks I have placed into my Grandchildrens Coverdell Ed. Funds....and I think Wall Street is going to lead us to some very nice downward dollar cost averaging opportunities.
I think wall Street has overlooked the MILLENIALS finally now buying homes....with this comes auto sales! I guess we'll see BUT...remember there are ALOT of BOOMERS who are still driving that 10 year old car and something economical and of reasonable price will find some attention amonsgt the boomers as well as the high end luxury....models.
I still think this is an easy mid 20 range stock, TODAY. However, the tide is something no one can fight IMO......I think we see F in the 15 range and perhaps alittle lower on some unforeseen market event. All PURELY IMHO........................and nothing more.
Oh so you are the "Catcher in the Rye" trying to save everyone from pumping by issueing your own dumping that is equally as hollow?
I'm not sure there has been any real pumping in this room over SD. Opinions built from news and facts, embellished by hopes of a solid turn around are a whole lot different than pumping.
Have you ever lost your money on a failed turn around? I have. Have you ever made money on a turn around? I have. Winning is great, losing sucks.
I think it is fair to say that if anyone is deliberately painting an opinionated picture of SD, it is you. I think Stifel/Cooperman and MANY MORE validate the positive verses your negative take. So ignore we longs and go afer Cooperman! Go after Stifel ! Snipe at the energy sector! Ignore SDs beta! Doubt SDs new leadership! Deny reduced drilling costs and increasing rates of production!
Trmmara, it is okay to be a contrarian, afterall, that is all we longs are in your rearview mirror! But don't expect to be able to walk into a party and "P" on the floor w/out any repurcussions!
By the way, I don't pretend or even offer to speak on the behalf of anyone else but I'd bet there are more than a few who agree at least in part with my calling you out on your little BS mind game! For what it's worth dear......and all purely only IMHO.
In the end, you may be right, clearly, I am betting against that! Can you take it?
How does it go? Something like "...if it wasn't for bad luck, SD would have no luck at all..." !
Seems either the HEDGIES or the MARKETS steal SDs earnings report momentum via volatility, more often than anyother position I have held in a very long time!
Oh well......I do think SDs day in the sun lay ahead.....short of any negative surprises AND...with earnings and outlook a week away...I suspect this sell-off is much-a-do about nothing!
It seems an options player is RAKING for CASH on PREMIUMS........... IMO .............added of course......... to SDs volatile nature and market fluctuations of late.
Year old data on TheStreet's article addressing CEO pay didn't help either ......hey wait a minute...was that pure coincidence or....? Hmmmmm...sometimes I wonder........all IMHO of course........
Love the posts by Stocktrader and dambatchew ! zinger posts here!
I would add that we are in the SUMMER DOLDRUMS.....between 2nd and 3rd qrtr's. Energy seems to run up leading the Memorial Day thru 4th of July....and then slowly trail off.....or at least that is my observation.
Finally, into Labor Day...alittle spike recovering from the AUG over selling flavored by back to school talk.....a long weekend of driving......and we start to hear about what is expected for Fall and particularily WINTER.
So all the catalysts mentioned by Stock/dambatchew under the above umbrella, the seasonal plays of norm.................of course this is a broad sweeping generalization I am making but it seems to be a reliable pattern! At least of late !
SD has a high beta and thus, oil volatility hits it's stock price alittle more harshly (as we all see) than others. Production levels of OIL and NG and what is perceived as a slowing demand is temporary!
The WORLD still wants the CONVENIENCES /better standard of living created by the West's innovations over the last century and with this demand, comes the need for ENERGY. Todays energy slowdown is one chapter in a very long book with a happy ending for energy holders IMHO !
Add to all of the above the impending conversion to NG powered energy plants ACROSS the world.....and while Tesla is making inroads into the EV market the fact of the matter is this, again, if everyone in America was forced to use an EV today, it would crash our GRID. Oh EVs will play a role but NG is what makes them practical on a massive scale! In fact don't be surprised if somehow a NG/EV hybrid makes its way into our inventory! It makes more sense than ayother choice available today!
Bottomline.....we have seen this play before regarding SDs stock price...in fact more than once! Each time the sell off proves to be overdone and Sd shareholders have been rewarded for dollar cost averaging down. How long will the oil sell off last? Who can say but SD is leveraged/hedged well for the remainder of the year (last I read) and while maintaining a low cost of production, SD could prove to ultimately be a shining star even if oil prices do remain low!
All IMHO and most of what we see IMO is the oil sell off....over supply of both OIL and NG...but amidst all of this, remember, we do not provide OIL or NG to anyone, not even our allies.....but change is coming thanks to the likes of Mr Putin, Venezuelan and Middele Eastern politics etc. ! IMHO...for what it may or may not be worth! LOL !
COOP just said "....one we've been wrong about but it looks dirt cheap....", REF SD while commenting on his energy holdings. Hmmmmm.....I take that for being a positive IMHO...........