Cutting the cord...NFLX, HULU, and there will be more and now, it appears HBO will join the online movement.
Oh well, CHTR greed......inconsitent quality of service, costly packages...........and ZERO attempt at providing viewers with an a la carte choice.............have come home to roost.
The irony is that CABLE created the above issues which have led to this cross-road. OUCH !
It is going to be real fun to watch the Cable Industry try to FINALLY establish loyalty from its own customers who they (cable) have been ROBBING for decades now. Loyalty is a two way street, something the cable thugs have been able to ignore now, SINCE INCEPTION.
I'm thinking we see alot more asset consolidation I mean you buy when it's cheap? Right? With NGas and Oil prices in the dumps.....there is no better time to buy your competitor (or his assets). Hopefully SD gets some attention and you point out the SWD.....well, without crunching numbers, I assume the parts are worth more than the whole at this 3-5 dollar level.
I guess we'll see and after the buyback, SD should look even more attractive to any potential buyer. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SD taken private buy someone or some group again especially aty these prices!
All purely IMHO and nothing more...............
I'm not sure...and I really don't know! Perhaps this is one of those pre-arranged sales/purchases whci I know NOTHING about as far as the mechanics are concerned. I wonder if that is what happened?
I mean there are alot of big positions in SD, it is possible once the word of a buyback was announced, that one of these players offered to sell at a pre-arranged price by a given date......I suppose! Though again, i don;t know!
....otherwise, it looks like someone was in a hurry at any cost to get out of the way here.....assuming this was a .....covering....move.
Well, some of our LONG hedgies saw the one legged stool kicked out from underneath just like we did only they could make some hay out of it.
Can you imagine SHORTING SD in the high 6 range? 5 range? Only to ride it down below 4 bucks!?
That's a real PLUMP return right before building into the anticipated year end rally!
I think alot of this went on and it fed on itself. IMHO.
PURE SPECULATION on my part but............. YES!
I think ALOT has happened here and we won't learn until earnings.
The perfect storm, it's just that simple IMHO. Oil/energy sector takes a bath, geo-political events, ever increasing oil/energy production, slowing economic conditions in parts of the world, SHORT players PILING onto the likes of an SD, already existing large shareholders wanting a buyback at LOWER prices......and the company itself likely wanting lower prices for the buy back , logically.
Add to the above certain hedgies clearing the decks to meet liquidations as well as annual selling/balancing of taking profits and realizing losses.............watching the 30 day wash sale rules and cherry picking their way into lower priced positions they want to either resume or assume as a new position.............and well, the Perfect Storm.
The OIL sector is oversold......it took both the oil price drop and downward selling momentum on the chin and now we have seen across almost all sectors, such irrational price cleansing if you will all in preparation for the close of the year new highs in the view of many! Let's hope!
I think the tell tail sign in SD today is that it is up 8% +/- and Crude is down 4% +/-............all IMHO.....
Yes and I believe it is time for SHORTS to turn around and bend over and repeat the following......"..thank you sir, may I have another...." !!! LMAO!
We are close if not already there. The slow price decline parallels that of the famed chinese water torture ...one drip or is our case, one tick at a time.
Of note however is the entire sector is down 30% plus SD with it's blinding beta is down even more, as expected.
Hedging as Dambatchew points out, is todays lifeguard as are the hedgies themselves and their feeding frenzy and we must all remember that for every seller, there is a buyer, even at todays price.
Further, it is in the interest of EVERY OIL PRODUCER in the world that prices go back up! Even WHEN the US approves crude exports, you can bet oil prices will have upward pressure. Simply put, this landslide sell-oof is WAY OVERDONE....as per usual......as the big players throw their weight in or out it seems daily and obviously, everyone is jumping ship right now but you can bet there are more than a few astute players buying in at these levels.
You see once the landslide starts, most of the big boys have already made their move...this is what led to the landslide in the first place.....it is Mom-n-Pop unfortunately, who are left "holding the bag" as a few voices on this site like to repeat over, and over, and over, and over, and over...sorry....again!
So while the bottom may not be here yet, IMHO......this energy sector decline is an overdone fire sale! Even our enemies, NO, ESPECIALLY our enemies who rely on oil revenues...want energy prices to climb,,and climb they will.....it is like a vertical pendulum..if you will! All IMHO.......if your going to jump...look both ways and use the curb....not your window!
Painful as it is, SDs drop is far more reflective of the sector and Wall Streets total disdain for SD for years now
than anything else IMHO...and ONLY IMHO.....for what its worth..... .
Whi is the wizard behind the curtain who decided the 3 digit security code could be for instance, 811? Or 911? Or 666? Or anyother commonly used 3 digit number that some thug could ( as an act of desperation ) try using ........................and BINGO he's in?
I mean seriously?
So much for any attempt what-so-ever to try and deconflict any potential security issues (that YOU can controll) in advance.
Great insight/comments/data/specs...thanks both of you!
So Bob I assume the "stacked" approach not only reduces cost of drilling/ops costs but also lengthens that lifetime curve and goes way beyond the 5-15 bbl/day after 2 years? Is there enough data yet to compute (or forecast) P/L on those stacked plays? IE total cost in, vs expected take, out, over an avg expected years?
I mean just being lazy I will asuume a three level "stack" would then produce as low as 15 bbl/day to perhaps 45 bbl/day after 2 years or would this be a flawed assumption?
Also, is there any known challenge to closing the shallow plays while still extracting from the lower levels that either of you are aware of? I mean is this technique such that you simply shut off the shallow play after it exhausts?
Thanks guys! Any info. is a help for us NON-OIL flat-landers!
....and the debt is lower than when TW said that........the production rate is up......and cost of operation is lower as well..........I think folks forget SD is basically an A-Z operator....and there are not many like it in the Oil Patch except for the big boys, generally speaking.
The price drop in oil has been painful for SD, a high beta stock, adding to this the buyback which seems to be timed perfectly if one thinks buying low is the way to go!
The debt is largely not an issue for the next 5 years as I understand it.......and I think if we see an extended low oil price environment, we will begin to see an indsutry wide asset consolidation which may or may not benefit the small players like SD.
Some suggest the notion that hedgies have been essentially forced to sell/liquidate to cover losses etc. and oil seems to be one of the whipping posts among the many being irrationally sold. It adds up to a mixture of taking profits and losses for tax purposes as well as hedgies accumulating cash anticipating a run on assets as their investors decide to move out of this huge under-performing sector (for years now, with few exceptions) .
I am convinced SD suffers from the perfect storm if you will...I hope I am right...!
AND for the benefit of all verbal snipers, All of the above purely IMHO!
Scenario worth considering. SD is 73% owned by Institutions. You can bet some hedgies with a seat on the board lauded the buyback and may well have even suggested it.
So 73% of the SD equity holders hear the buyback announcement and I think it is fair to say that they are likely smart enough to know that the more SHARES SD can buy back, the stronger their equity position becomes.
I would guess some of these Institutions have been responisble for driving SDs price down with the above in mind. Knowing full well that the naked short buzzards would join for their pound of equity flesh as well. Add to this, the drop in oil prices and one could not paint a better scenario for a buyback!
Despite all of the above, it is worth mentioning we all hope the Emperor (SD) still wears his pants if you will! In otherwords, let us all hope the price drop is merely a reflection of the oil sector weakness and piling on by those with an active interest in seeing a successful buyback and not just the naked Short Buzzards! All IMHO and purely "T" for your sake Should you be browsing SD posts, AN OPINION!
Well I think you're hitting on the correct direction, wrong mechanics in my view. Once SD announced a planned buy back, the big fish had a choice, help themselves by SHORTING the stock and drive that Price down allowing for more shares to be bought back ....while all along gaining on the price drop.
All accompanied by a run on Shorts once the price floor dropped out.
Or, the big fish could standby and take what comes, which, IMO never happens. Now add to this the hedgies (who are not long SD ) who love playing the naked short game....especially when the company/stock is SO SMALL they can lean on it for a small amount of risk and grab PERCENTAGE GAINS on a daily basis.....well I think they may have piled on and now that the price is so cheap, they have PERHAPS decided to own SD at these levels.
Now in order to appease Trmmara, all of the above is PURELY OPINION.....and SERIOUSLY, nothing more.
I think it is smart for ldrshp not to make any public comment during a buy back especially seeing how low a price the market has given SD during this buy back, painfull as it is.. .
My question is this, is SD ldrship legtally prevented any comment for 30 days during this buy back? In otherwords, does a buyback initate a 30 day silent period?
If memory serves, it does not but I really can't remember!
So if SD is dead why would "your Father" think about buying it in the 3 range? Is it going to go back up? Is SD being affected by the oil sector drop? The rise of the US dollar? The impact of options players?
I mean if so....thats all we contrarians have been saying about the drop........are you incapable of understanding that without attacking others views which based on your "Fathers" intent, are validated?
LOL ! unbelievable.........
LMAO! Were we wrong a couple years back when it ran to 12+ bucks? How about when it ran to the low 7's recently?
Oil prices are down dear and SD has a very high beta. It is also perhaps one of thee most played oil patch stocks available.
Don;t for one minute think people have not made money on SD long and/or short. SD is a CONTRARIAN PICK.......since you ARE SO CORRECT, please point out any deliberate lies posted by anyone on this board? OR shut up because as you pointed out yourself (oops!) this is America and we ALL have a right to post our views.....EVEN THOSE OF US WHO ARE HOPEFUL OF AN SD TURN AROUND.
GROW UP! LMAO!