We all know the energy sector is challenged but hedgies and BANKS would not be playing in this name if they didn't see potential sunshine down the road.
I think COOP said it best awhile back when he said SD was going to take alittle longer than he originally expected or words to that effect.
SD is still in turn around mode and at some point here, along with the recent increase in credit facility amount/duration , Wall Street is going to wake up and take notice. I think roland is spot on, wiser men than me, if you will, have looked at SD, weighed/measured the risks of SD and the sector looking forward and given SD a greenlight. That's a better due diligence than I am capable of........by far!
As I have said time and again for the last few years, it's all about the Assets in the ground and SD continues to slowly convert those assets into revenues and does so at a cheaper cost than the industry average. It all adds up at some point, we are just a ways from hitting that intersection! IMHO...............
are selling very well at WEN, very well according to the stores I have talked too. The pulled pork sandwiches are catching on but not as fast as the fries!
Of course WEN is just now really starting to blanket advertise so we shall see.
Sales so far this quarter are alittle better according to the feedback I have collected....and I think it is fair to assume as we begin to enter the SHOPPING SEASON...closer to XMAS ...sales 4th qtr will do well to very well.
WEN would be wise to advertise it's virtual cornicopia of sandwiches from the Baconator to the P-Bacon-Cheeseburger....to the pulled pork & pulled pork fries etc., for the Holidays!
My take is this, any additional ad rev equates to an improving revenue stream. I think TWTR shows progress here and, I think a strong 4th qtr is anticipated.
France working w/TWTR to do a TWTR pay thing is no small feat, it shows TWTR will also be entering the frey in the electronic/mobile pay ability such as AAPL at least in some regions and in some way.
The biggie is this, it's election time and I expect TWTR will experience more usage/new accounts etc., than ever. I think this will show that TWTR is one of the few new techs/socials/whatevers....that can be and in fact is, event driven as well as perhaps establishing a normal growth curve or baseline of such if you will.
There is plenty of room for FB and TWTR.......and I think alot of others either competing directly or with some overlap with TWTR and FB are currently overwhelmed by the ver increasing tide of growth and expansion that TWTR and FB represent.
Finally, i think CITI is being alittle stubborn with it's forecast but hey, it wouldn't be the first time! I think TWTR's 3 qtr is less important than the fourth qtr and 2015 outlook which I expect will prove positive to very positive!
All IMHO.and certainly nothing more.........always be diversified, these new vectors of tech growth can change at a moments notice with the next best mousetrap that comes along..............I am often reminded of how the online services moved up and down at warp speed when AOL showed everyone that its indsutry/sector was real and real money was there to be made. Then came a host of competitors and very few remain today via buyouts or slow painful erosion into nothingness! For what it is worth! AND again, all IMHO and nothing more!
My decryption of this is as follows........... this is a wonderful way for an insider, such as a hedgie with a presence on the board to benefit in two ways. First, they are not shorting the stock, they are lending shares for others to short thus earning a premium.
The added benefit in the SD scenario is that this ultimately SHOULD lead to lower stock prices thus further, adding value to any and all (even you and me) because the BUYBACK would HOPEFULLY, be accomplished during the downward price pressure time period.
The Boomers are dead or dying, OR....working like "H____" to stay or get healthy both of which leave MCD on the sideline.
It's not really only a Boomer Demographic thing, it is MCDs and so many others who have not gound a way to replace their dying customer base. Compouned by overseas exposure which can be good or bad depending upon the region, currency rates, and economic swings.
Others face the same backdrop of issues, Olive Garden (Darden) comes to mind.
Now add in the growing legions of competition in the burger patch and MCDs seems to fit the Kmart/Sears/Woolworths chemical makeup. IE, headed for the Smithsonian as a memory. I don't like it but, the times changed and MCDs and the companys I mention above, have not/ did not.
I mean the last time any of the above retailers even advertised for America's Youth was back in the 1960's...and into the 70's and now they are headed for the museums if not already there. MCDs has BUT...it started trhying to appeal to certain minority groups and replacing the masses with a special interest group is marketing suicide by stupidity.
Oh well, I like a MCD cheeseburger or Big Mac a few times a year..............I use to make at least one trip a week to MCDs when I was working/travelling..........now as I said, a few times per year. I think most other Boomers echo this change.
Expected earnings are .05 cents..............I say .08 cents with a stronger outlook aided by fewer shares as well as continued upward revenue expectations.................and a price of 5.25 between now and earnings!
All IMHO.....and yes, I have been pants'd by my own predictions before........again purely IMHO and NOTHING MORE !
Um maybe the above is part wish as well! LOL !
Who trusts the GOV anymore? Between the NSA and IRS of late, seriously, who trusts the US GOV? Even our allies don't trust the US GOV.
I wore a uniform, attended an Academy and I don't trust the GOV.
The pretense of protecting society is lost on most. Afterall they see crime ridden neighborhoods, entire communities of illegals growing with no consequences except an increased crime rate. An IRS gone wild. An EPA drowning in leftist ideology...you remember, the guys who said use plastic bags not paper and now our waste dumps are CHOKED with plastic bags with a half life of at least a few hundred years! Now they say use paper! Some say cloth reusable bags but then the CDC or an equivalent studied the germ pool that grows in the average reusable cloth grocery bag.
Envirowhackoism is not science. Besides, most American's want less pollution, they want to do whats safe! Yet we see the EPA...send the equiv of Swat Teams to harrass recreational gold panners in Chicken Alaska last year! UNBELIEVABLE..........when and where does it end? Illegals don't pay taxes. Illegals SEND MONEY HOME monthly in some cases, they have foreign accounts, is the IRS going aftert them? NO.
The FBI and NSA want to know everything about everyone.....and we are supposed to trust these guys? Time after time, after time, we see and learn of abuses. And WE THE PEOPLE have ZERO RECOURSE. We can not sue the GOV. Congress turns its head away and creates its own plausible denial scenario for agencies such as the NSA, FBI, CIA, EPA, IRS, and countless others.
I see NO ONE at any level of government acting on behalf of our Liberty/Freedom/ and protections AGAINST the oputrageous level of gov over reach we are forced to endure today. TAX being but one issue. privacey yet another.
Cities spend 75-90% of their budgets on employee benefits and debt and very little for crime prevention IE less law enforcement presence than at anyother time for the last 50 years.
It wants tel/smartphone co's to NOT do the encryption work around thus guaranteeing users their privacey. Or in otherwords, BIG BROTHER wants to know everything about everyone. Be it the EPA, IRS, CIA, FBI, FDA....any and all Gov. Agencies.
Yet another way of looking at this is the FBI wanting to continue to INFRINGE on LIBERTY. I wouldn't be against this if GOV was held to a higher standard. You see agencies are not elected, they have the freedom, NO....better put, theyt are EXPECTED to create ruels/regs/laws for their particular area of responsibility and then enforce the same. Regardless of how unconstitutional these agency created rules/laws/regs might be. You see you can not sue the government.
This leads to more McVeigh type attitudes, government over reach without any recourse what-so-ever. One has to ask really how far removed from the normal flow of life in america these agency clowns have become!?
The IRS developed laws to go after Americans who DELIBERATELY sought out and in fact opened accounts offshore to side step US taxes. Well regardless of how one feels about this issue, the IRS's target has moved now and is being directed at those who DID NOT deliberately opne a foreign account and in fact in many cases, DO NOT HAVE A FOREIGN ACCOUNT ......BUT...happen to have been foreign born, married an American ( military/state dept./coporate) and whose Parent's have passed away and left an estate in the form of a Trust IAW with the Nation this foreign born hails from.......well simply put, the day his/her Parents passed away, they became CRIMINALS in the eyes of the IRS.
The Penalties are equivalent to chopping off a 13 year old boys hand for stealing a pack of gum ONLY through no FAULT of this American, his/her Parents die, leave something behind for their kids and now......we see penalties that range in the MULTIPLES of the value of whatever was left behind.
Even if one comes forward, he/she will likely end up paying 50% the value. OVER REACH !!!!
COOP just said "....one we've been wrong about but it looks dirt cheap....", REF SD while commenting on his energy holdings. Hmmmmm.....I take that for being a positive IMHO...........
Cutting the cord...NFLX, HULU, and there will be more and now, it appears HBO will join the online movement.
Oh well, CHTR greed......inconsitent quality of service, costly packages...........and ZERO attempt at providing viewers with an a la carte choice.............have come home to roost.
The irony is that CABLE created the above issues which have led to this cross-road. OUCH !
It is going to be real fun to watch the Cable Industry try to FINALLY establish loyalty from its own customers who they (cable) have been ROBBING for decades now. Loyalty is a two way street, something the cable thugs have been able to ignore now, SINCE INCEPTION.
I'm thinking we see alot more asset consolidation I mean you buy when it's cheap? Right? With NGas and Oil prices in the dumps.....there is no better time to buy your competitor (or his assets). Hopefully SD gets some attention and you point out the SWD.....well, without crunching numbers, I assume the parts are worth more than the whole at this 3-5 dollar level.
I guess we'll see and after the buyback, SD should look even more attractive to any potential buyer. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SD taken private buy someone or some group again especially aty these prices!
All purely IMHO and nothing more...............
I'm not sure...and I really don't know! Perhaps this is one of those pre-arranged sales/purchases whci I know NOTHING about as far as the mechanics are concerned. I wonder if that is what happened?
I mean there are alot of big positions in SD, it is possible once the word of a buyback was announced, that one of these players offered to sell at a pre-arranged price by a given date......I suppose! Though again, i don;t know!
....otherwise, it looks like someone was in a hurry at any cost to get out of the way here.....assuming this was a .....covering....move.
Well, some of our LONG hedgies saw the one legged stool kicked out from underneath just like we did only they could make some hay out of it.
Can you imagine SHORTING SD in the high 6 range? 5 range? Only to ride it down below 4 bucks!?
That's a real PLUMP return right before building into the anticipated year end rally!
I think alot of this went on and it fed on itself. IMHO.
PURE SPECULATION on my part but............. YES!
I think ALOT has happened here and we won't learn until earnings.
The perfect storm, it's just that simple IMHO. Oil/energy sector takes a bath, geo-political events, ever increasing oil/energy production, slowing economic conditions in parts of the world, SHORT players PILING onto the likes of an SD, already existing large shareholders wanting a buyback at LOWER prices......and the company itself likely wanting lower prices for the buy back , logically.
Add to the above certain hedgies clearing the decks to meet liquidations as well as annual selling/balancing of taking profits and realizing losses.............watching the 30 day wash sale rules and cherry picking their way into lower priced positions they want to either resume or assume as a new position.............and well, the Perfect Storm.
The OIL sector is oversold......it took both the oil price drop and downward selling momentum on the chin and now we have seen across almost all sectors, such irrational price cleansing if you will all in preparation for the close of the year new highs in the view of many! Let's hope!
I think the tell tail sign in SD today is that it is up 8% +/- and Crude is down 4% +/-............all IMHO.....
Yes and I believe it is time for SHORTS to turn around and bend over and repeat the following......"..thank you sir, may I have another...." !!! LMAO!