Hey justjoe.....here's my take on the heavy hitters. I think it is the heavy hitters creating this price volatility by ramping up or down (the price) essentially at will BUT...there always seems to be a catalyst. Right now for instance IMO...is an ideal time for the Hedgies to take profits to off-set their losses to date....AND, leave enough time to buy back in after the 30 day wash rule expires and pocket some profits.
Further, downward pressure on both OIL and NG prices stands as good a reason as any to take the money and run for those who had rather large gains in for isntance, SD. Afterall, a little over a year ago, one could have moved into SD in the mid 4 range...so selling out at the 7 range is one heck of a take. I mean the swing from 4.5 to 7+ was a heck of a gain for those who sold at the peak. Likewise, those who shorted in the 7 range have caught the inverse profit wave as SD moved down to 5 bucks. Wow, what a year SD has given some of those big boys who play the game. Of course their holdings are big enough to play the game afterall, they are the game because of their size. All purely speculation and IMHO of course.
SD and other high BETA's will likely continue to bruise shareholders as long as OIL and NG show price weakness. BUT..winter is coming and it is supposed to be another rough one!
It is rather strange that world events/geopolitical events have not led to upward energy sector prices. It tells me that energy traders are TOO CONTENT assuming a status quo outcome which, in itself, signals IMO...a bullish trend for energy prices. So couple the OVEDONE sell-off of energy (SD and others), the impending tough winter ahead, and consider we are one toothpick crossbeam away from the world collapsing literally into WWIII....via ingredients like CHINA, PUTIN's version of RUSSIA, ISIS, the US/NATO/ & Freeworld / allies.
The big boys in SD are IMO...the ones rocking the SD boat. For what it's worth!
....um...unless those who brought the stock price down are helping hold it down for a buyback.......GULP !
Seen it before.....don't know if that is what is happening here but it sure smells like a "LID".
Naysayers and critics...you have a right to beat-up on SD...but many of your points are about as accurate as your ability to see into the future........NOT !
SD has an 11% Short positon....this position not so long ago was in the 40% range. Don't think for a minute that the MAJORITY of that SHORT Positon ISN'T held by the big players. Afterall, they do want to win and covering themselves via options reduces their risk.
For many, they are in the know, afterall, they hold a seat on the board. Protecting one's downside against a long postion is easy to run from if / when things turn around.
Ref. Buying back shares. It's not so much that SD is doing a buy back IMO...it is much more THAT THEY ARE IN A POSITION to do so in the first place! This is a RADICAL DEPARTURE from the days of T.W.
It is also the logical thing to do after a "run on the bank" ( if you will ) has deflated your stock price to unreasonably low levels AND.....while some call it a gesture......I think management views the price to be so cheap it is irresistable at these levels so WHY NOT? Pretty smart IMO. The buyback will have fractional benefits for shareholders and I seriously doubt we see the SHORT position move much at all, afterall, once again, most of that position is made up of the PROs. The little tail waggers will likely get body slammed again and finally give up after reading the HOW TOO book for options only to learn it is a pool of sharks and premiums for small position seldom really pay enough for the risk position taken. Even covered calls pay little these days in the way of premium unless one has scale.
So hats off to SD.......I think the sun shines again.......and I also think the day is coming when SD regains its footing and the doubters find another whipping post to sit on. All IMHO.....
Forget the motivation/reasoning/ etc. This is a very bullish sign IMHO. I mean for the first time in the last 5 years, SOMEONE at SD is thinking in the right direction! A buyback can be for many reasons.......usually, it is more than mere smoke as the skeptics might imply......but the event by itself spells out a positive direction!
Again, SDs price is so low that anyone of the big players can weed it....milk it.....EASILY MOVE the price via outlandishly high option positions RAKING a minimum of 10% (and as we have seen recently, much more) at will.
Of course remember too, NG and OIL prices are seeing a dip and this is going to "PANTS" a high beta stock price alot more than of course, the big oil patch players. It is hard to keep all of this in perspective AFTER a downward price has had its way with your money but thats all part of investing. The SUN will SHINE again IMHO!
Management buys shares back because the price is too cheap to ignore and/or.....to trim a buyout package...in either event, it is bullish. IMHO............
IMHO! The reason the stock price has risen so much is because it LANGUISHED for OVER A YEAR. Not to mention the new inroads AAPL will make w/ IPhone 6......wearables and who knows what other surprises, INCLUDING APPS, AAPL will WHIP on the consumer on the 9th!?
The sell-off was CREATED by big money selling calls on CNBC talking heads as well as opportunists on Wall Street blindly following for one reason, an unjustified reason to sell!
AAPL's legions of loyalists have grown consistently over the years and new avenues Internationally are sorely discounted in AAPLs GROWTH....yes GROWTH!
This is THEE MOST obvious created sell-off in AAPL in years! Shame on you Wall Streeters for the hollow sentiment.............as though the run is somehow overdone? LMAO........rrriiiiggggghhhhtttttt......I think Wall Street has overthought and oversold the 9th ! All IMHO............
for the third straight year running! 2012, 2013, and now 2014!
Now I know it's early and EMC might be trying to threepeat as well but I have every confidence that GE will blunder it's way across the finishline in the 26.5 or less range! YIPEEEEEEEE !
GE is damaged goods. Where is the leadership? Where is the reward for the stock price OXIDATION being PERP'd upon Shareholders?
GE = Serial Underperformer.............IMHO
The Board is considering a name change to General Debacle or GD but then they thought this GD stock can't move up in even a BULL market!
Then they wanted to use GM, for General Malaise but realized GM stands for Government Motors so they cancelled that idea.
Finally, they just decided to place Warnings on their stock for all unknowing , would-be, stock buying consumers WARNING of ( being a ) SERIAL UNDERPERFORMER.
The sun us shining, I hear the noise of happy markets, and GE languishes in it's own dated/spoiled/rotting soup mix. All IMHO......
Funny you should say that......for the first time in it seems forever, I saw some after hour SD activity cross the ticker.
Hmmmmmmmm...and while Monday is a Holiday....I think we all know you meant at the markets open next week...................or perhaps you are just playing games.....we'll see!
WEN has adopted the PBC permanently and that's a good thing! It's back to school time for the little ones and more importantly, those hungry ravenous college students!
Oh and I suspect XMas shopping starts even earlier this year......a new and/or imporved/enlarged (who knows!?) bevy of AAPL devices ready to be unveiled 09/09/2014 or there abouts. Of course the competition won;t sit back and ignore AAPLs innovations so expect a full 4 months of new tech gadgets for shoppers to consider.
Oh and it's FOOTBALL SEASON.............everyone is going to be in a hurry so expect those drive-thrus to show some life................tis the season! Oh and all IMHO.....................WEN is under-priced! With menu innovation, cost controls, selling off stores to franchisees and the store facelifts going on....WEN continues to benefit from the MCD slow down as well as it's own inching forward in the market share arena! IMHO.
messnervan, good point. I was just trying to be friendly verse scorched earth in my assessment of the situation.
I like a BKW burger once inawhile but I am a HARDCORE SBUX fan. It has been intersting to watch the sector grow. Between Green Mountain, the kurig craze, mom-n-pop espresso stands on every street corner from Olympia to Seattle.....and the Burger Patch Coffee invasion.
I like Schultz, I'm not sure we are of kindred spirit politically speaking and I do question his views sometimes. However, I notice very few BKWs and SBUX stores located near one another. In fact, not even within eyesight in my area. If the THI coffee rivals SBUX...then I see this BKW distribution network as a threat to SBUX.
As you say, time will tell. In fairness, I have seen SBUX trade in a tight range before but with the market reaching for new highs of late, it seems someone must be thinking along the same lines as I have loosely attempted to outline.
I hope I am wrong and as you say, time will tell. SBUX should be trading in the mid 80 range in my view yet, here we are languishing in a fricking 77-78.
In fact, given the market background performance, I think one could say SBUX has been a serial underperformer this year, regarding stock price performance.
But hey.....I am just one of the little guys trying to invest.....I've done very well with SBUX......saw some scary times too..!!
I hope I am wrong but fear I am right. All IMHO...nothing more.....
Hey everyone, I am drinking a SBUX right now. I love SBUX......my concern is simple, when sector proliferation occurs, pricing becomes the very first means of competing thus squeezing margins.
Perhaps too many on this board are too young to remeber the cola wars. IE PEP VS KO. Or how about the BUD vs Miller Beer wars, way back when?
Or maybe the WEN vs MCD vs BKW wars? Sure, all three live on and will continue to do so but the skies were BLUE for MCD when MCD ruled the burger patch. Today we see IN-and-OUT burger is JUST ONE competitor encroaching on MCD turf or what was once MCD turf.
Despite MCDs foray into the coffee zone, SBUX has done well and for that, I am grateful! However, the momentum of proliferation into the coffee/tea sector is picking up at warp speed.....remember, the coffee sector was essentially an untapped, unrecognized, and basically IGNORED sector for SBUX first couple decades........now, the big boys are seeing the picture and jumping on board.
unfortunately, I take BKWs foray into the sector in a rather serious fashion to be a game changer. I hope I am wrong but IMO, this changes SBUX into a SHOW ME stock. I want to see them keep their growth rates, profit margins etc. I fear however, that others will follow BKWs lead and pile on even more into the sector at which point the consumer has a few considerations, quality, price, and CONVENIENCE. All of which CAN deflate SBUX drive-thru/walk-in.
Sorry for my take but this ain't the first dance in the food/beverage patch.....and only IMHO ! To be sure. I invite other views that put my fears to rest......supposition not accepted!
.......the proliferation of coffee and now breakfast competitors took a new turn with the Horton-BKW merger. In other words, the day of being the only show in town so to speak is over. With SBUX locations planted all over the US and growing around the world, one could say they still have the EDGE......................BUT.....it's not like Dunkin, BKW, MCD.....and likely, many more, can not yap at SBUX ankles and chip away at that dominance enjoyed by SBUX for decades now.
Electronic pay is exciting but, WHERE is it? Simply put, that/s not a MOAT surrounding SBUX, it is a circular body of water filled with competitors trained alligators!
So hats off to SBUX, what a ride it has been but now, the ultimate compiment of mimicking success has led to a HUGE pool of competitors and the list grows.
Who ever would have thought that someday the cheeseburger would give way to a great selection of coffee drinks and breakfast?
Yet, here we are..........................I hope I am wrong.....this is a dynasty I have an immense amount of respect for business wise........but I think the walls are now visible and they are high and getting taller........all IMHO
...and yet Facebool ad revenues still climb and INSTAGRAM is in its ad revenue infancy.
Now lets talk about a FB version of paypal....is it coming.....logic would argue, yes...of all the SOC sites....FB has the distinct advantage via size and scale not to mention the busiest, over crowded, number of irons in the fire so to speak.
Ah, but maybe Janney is right........LMAO!
...and those who fail to change are headed for the Smithsonian........Oakbrook? Hello? Crickets...............
This is nice. Between SDs relationships with OXY and REPSOL, combined with Lawler's INSIDE knowledge of SD......and BPs desire to spin-off its lower 48 ONSHORE unconventional assets that Lawler will head up......me thinks there is something at play..... .
Lets face it, with NG and OIL at these cheap levels, industry/sector consolidation makes more sense than even 6 month/ year ago!
AND...if one thinks NG will begin to proliferate usage wise........and demand for energy will only increase.....well then, now is the time to buy cheap assets!
Given SDs self sustaining operation A to Z.....this model can be applied across all non-conventional oil/NG sources/assets to INCREASE profit via the LOW COST model SD enjoys.
While there is no hard and fast rule of how a former employee will respond once given the chance to BUY OUT his former employer....one thing is certain, Lawler either LIKES or DISLIKES SD management/business model/assets. We shall see!
This move seems to highlight SDs operations as a plus and hopefully Lawler will want to DECORATE his new CEO office at BP onshore ! All IMHO...and purely speculation !
Love the posts by Stocktrader and dambatchew ! zinger posts here!
I would add that we are in the SUMMER DOLDRUMS.....between 2nd and 3rd qrtr's. Energy seems to run up leading the Memorial Day thru 4th of July....and then slowly trail off.....or at least that is my observation.
Finally, into Labor Day...alittle spike recovering from the AUG over selling flavored by back to school talk.....a long weekend of driving......and we start to hear about what is expected for Fall and particularily WINTER.
So all the catalysts mentioned by Stock/dambatchew under the above umbrella, the seasonal plays of norm.................of course this is a broad sweeping generalization I am making but it seems to be a reliable pattern! At least of late !
LMAO! I prefer to give Ford Leadership, Mullay...and hard working FORD EMPLOYEES credit for Ford's performance.
OBAMA had NOTHING to do with Ford's success. In fact, Ford didn;t take the bailout. GM and Chrysler did take the bailout and if you'll recall, OBAMA asked Bush to commence with the auto industry bailout stating ti would be his first act as President if Bush did not bail them out.
Nope, SORRY.....Ford has done ALL of this ON THEIR OWN and JokeBAMA had NOTHING to do with it.