Not even BWLD can resist a bear market, if that is what is starting. Megaphone appears to point down to $105-120 area.
1. MACD sell signal/RSI declining
2. Possible head & shoulders top pattern
may be tracking fundamentals, incl. declining price of gasoline, narrowing spreads, seasonal decline in demand etc.
My opinion--do your own research.
"TSO will go higher" It already has, from barely above $10 to above $100. As far as the "low PE" argument goes, refinery stocks always peak with very low PE ratios. At the last peak, the PE ratio was about 5, half the current level.
Now for the caution/bear arguments: new refinery capacity + entering the slower gasoline demand season. Seen gasoline prices---they're fa;lling faster than crude in the last few days--spreads are narrowing!
Rates are going up, no matter what. We are not Japan. Japan finances debt with internal consumption. The U.S depends to a large extent on external buyers, and the external buyers need the funds at home.
And I might add without FED buying of USTs, rates would be considerably higher across the yield spectrum. Now that the FED has blown out its balance sheet to 50:1 leverage, I doubt QE will be resumed. So, who will be the marginal buyer at these historically low rates? I doubt it will be the Chinese or Europeans, who have their own problems. Will savers come to the rescue? Maybe, maybe not. Savers are pretty disgusted with the current level of rates, so they might step aside.
Marenkov, you do realize a slow growing and overly indebted economy doesn't necessarily mean low interest rates, don't you? Such conditions of stagnation sometimes bring higher rates. What has saved the U.S. so far is the reserve currency status. But cracks are appearing.
Harsh words for Tech. Those who ignore other people might miss some interesting viewpoints. Everything new is at first distrusted. Sometimes the new is worthless, sometimes not. The Wright Bros. were considered cranks at first.
Isn't everyone a parasite Tech? Plants are parasites of sunlight, converting it to carbohydrates. Animals are parasites on plants, and some are parasites on other animals. Everyone is a parasite of other people's thoughts, which we manipulate and sometimes create new thoughts, which other people might parasitize.
Syb, both on the same side of the market. Puts. Why the hostility? Save it for Phil & skiidady.
In Atlantic City, revenues plunged when the Indian casinos opened in Connecticutt, PA etc.