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Identiv, Inc. Message Board

bobbyhien 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 4:05 PM Member since: Aug 26, 2012
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  • Although a smaller amount today than in the past. We'll see about tomorrow. Hopefully that's the last of them.

  • bobbyhien by bobbyhien Apr 27, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    With AIS, this quarter should be the first to show quite the increase in revenue and earnings. I'm considering buying more in this 2.10 range, as the threat of more convertibles seems to have subsided. Assuming no more convertibles and they pay off the remaining ones like they said and with no other surprises, I think this has a good chance of seeing upper 2s to 3 by June.

  • Reply to

    Shelf

    by bobbyhien Apr 12, 2016 11:20 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Apr 12, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    Semi-correct. They can't issue shares for whatever price they want, they can issue them for whatever the current pps is. This is how most companies get money for introducing more shares. This is better than the previous way, which was issuing convertibles at more than half whatever the current pps and continues to drive the pps down on any rise. So destructive? Typically, yes, but this is a better situation than previously. Time will tell if the pps is further lowered but with the elimination of convertibles, this brings the stock from "dead money and no reason to buy" to "still really risky but could be worth the reward"

  • bobbyhien by bobbyhien Apr 12, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    More dilution as expected. This time, however, it is with much better terms. Typically an announcement like this would drop the pps, but we'll see. It appears the convertibles are over since they want to pay them off, but still not convinced they haven't issued more in the last quarter. If they stop those and the worthless PRs, with some nice quarterly earnings with AIS included now, this has a shot at holding upper 2s by summer, maybe even above 3.

  • Reply to

    How come.................

    by bigfishjumping Apr 5, 2016 7:15 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Apr 6, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    Not sure excited is the word you mean. But either way, I'm pretty sure everyone knows about the awful numbers but by now it's not even worth bringing up, as I'd assume most everyone who is still stuck in this considers this a complete loss. It's been obvious now for a year that this company is going nowhere and lucky to still be in business.

  • Reply to

    Oh look...

    by bobbyhien Apr 4, 2016 10:01 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Apr 4, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Admittedly my knowledge on the specific technologies is limited, so I'd be curious if anyone had any insight as well.

    For me though, it's mostly frustrating the way they have ran things the last 6-10 months and I'm really banking on the AIS acquisition coming through in earnings. If good enough, I think there's a chance (albeit very slight) that it can overcome the convertibles before the end of the year. And maybe they won't announce more of them.

  • Reply to

    Oh look...

    by bobbyhien Apr 4, 2016 10:01 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Apr 4, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Who knows. Each of these pump PRs read similarly: insert huge number for a specific market then state that a specific device sold by Cemtrex can be used in said market and therefore demand is rising. It worked a couple times back in Sept, but people quickly wised up.

  • bobbyhien by bobbyhien Apr 4, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    Another attempted PR pump. Haven't seen one of these in a few months.

  • Reply to

    Valuation Question

    by geoffwahoo Mar 21, 2016 12:42 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 23, 2016 9:09 PM Flag

    Agreed, and I'll say what I've said before, there's just no reason to buy this one right now. It's been a rough ride and will continue to be for the remainder of the year.

  • Reply to

    Valuation Question

    by geoffwahoo Mar 21, 2016 12:42 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 22, 2016 7:26 PM Flag

    There have been a couple articles about valuation, which I can't currently find both but one was on SA. These have ranged from 35-50m, but obviously not including AIS revenue. It seems due to the industry they are in, they will always get less than a 1:1 with revenue, but 50-65m doesn't seem out of the question. Unfortunately, valuation goes out the window with the convertibles though, but perhaps once and if they stop in less than a year, that the pps will start to recover closer to the 50m valuation.

  • Reply to

    Acquisition Update?

    by timrio Mar 18, 2016 8:04 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 22, 2016 7:17 PM Flag

    I somewhat forgot about this. While it would be nice to have an update, it wouldn't affect the pps much.

  • Reply to

    picked up 2500 shares at 2.06

    by cakesplitter Mar 22, 2016 4:12 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 22, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    I agree, after this drops to 1 or below, this would probably move up to 2 on ebitda news in November.

  • Reply to

    picked up 2500 shares at 2.06

    by cakesplitter Mar 22, 2016 4:12 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 22, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    Like most of us, the ticket you just bought is a loser. Worst quarter yet.

  • Reply to

    IoT Security Threats

    by inveforsale Mar 4, 2016 9:26 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 7, 2016 9:41 PM Flag

    The patents they have in IOT have already proven to be worthless.

  • Reply to

    IoT Security Threats

    by inveforsale Mar 4, 2016 9:26 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 7, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    Chasrx is correct. INVE is no longer in the IOT business. Although, not like they ever actually were.

  • Reply to

    Come on Steve

    by g_younit Mar 3, 2016 5:00 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 7, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    Are you expecting good news?

  • Reply to

    With the waive of normal red tape by the FDA

    by denerious Feb 1, 2016 4:46 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Mar 2, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    Thanks for letting me know, probably would have been another month plus otherwise. I had to laugh a little at this PR and basically confirms what you and I have been saying. More 'plans' to expand production 5-fold, is this in addition to the supposed 5-fold expansion from last year? Something tells me no. It reads almost as if it was written last year, so obviously not much has advanced since then. Despite the negativity from me, maybe they can actually succeed this time, but it still sounds like they are still in the planning/research phase to me.

  • Reply to

    With the waive of normal red tape by the FDA

    by denerious Feb 1, 2016 4:46 AM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Feb 29, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    Great post, I agree. I sold awhile back but this is a stock I like to revisit every now and then, which is something I don't typically do, so I understand the false enthusiasm here. There's a lot of great research here which excites people (including myself at one point) but it never really leads to anything. The 8K about enhancing stockholder value and 400k shares given to CBV made it seem like they want to start a real partnership, but that was 6 months ago and nothing has come from it, which tells me that their research still isn't there yet. Perhaps one day it will be, but is it really worth the wait of up to 2.5 more years for that chance, especially when the company stopped filing (although I noticed they recently filed their 10Q from last year) and they provide little to no updates.

  • Reply to

    New to CETX

    by macp7777 Jan 28, 2016 2:01 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Feb 23, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    A nice comeback from the mid 1s, that's for sure. Allowed me to sell what I bought in the 2.3s. But I think it's pretty clear that every time buyers start ramping it up, it's met by the constant selling of convertibles. So ultimately, no I don't believe this latest move is the real deal.

  • Reply to

    10-q

    by iwasinthepool15 Feb 16, 2016 10:46 PM
    bobbyhien bobbyhien Feb 17, 2016 9:05 AM Flag

    I understand you now. It is interesting that the other income, which is forgiveness of debt, has occurred for the last ~4 quarters.

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