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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

bobdbeck 226 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Oct 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Always worth repeating

    by bobdbeck Feb 10, 2016 10:43 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 15, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Revised analyst roster:2/25/16
    by bobdbeck • 8 seconds ago Remove

    Analyst recs for NRZ:
    by bobdbeck • Jan 8, 2016 1:20 PM Remove
    ratings and Price Targets for NRZ;
    Steifel: Outperform, PT 15
    Keith Bruyette Woods: Outperform, PT 16
    Bank America: Buy, PT 18.50
    Credit Suisse: Outperform, PT 17
    CompassPoint: Buy, PT 19
    Citi: Buy, PT 18
    Sterne Agee: Buy, PT 18
    FBR Capital Mkts: Outperform, PT 21
    Barkleys: Overweight (buy):, PT 19
    Piper Jaffrey: Overweight (buy): PT 16
    UBS: Buy, PT 21
    JMP (new) Outperform (buy), PT 15 (cowards)
    Zacks (last and least impressive): STRONG BUY, PT 19

    That’s13 ANALysts (if you count Zacks) all with BUY ratings and an approx median PT of 17.50. I'd call them ALL very reputable (leaving

  • Reply to


    by keebon Mar 14, 2016 12:15 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 14, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    kee, that's been debated ever since the earnings report on NRZ. I originally thought they would forgo a divvy hike this quarter because the CEO intimated that there were possibly some big deals on the horizon (think Ocwen). Now I'm leaning to a .01-.02 increase and we should hear on that this week. In the past, dividend increases for the most part have not done much to juice the share price. An enigma, wrapped in a riddle. With .52 in earnings vs. .46 last quarters divvy they certainly have the ability to increase. They have also, twice in the past announced "special" dividends of .05.

  • USDP. Transport and terminaling of oil and oil products across the US and Canada. Read the recent CC transcript and nothing to dislike. Increasing distributions, yields 16.4%, 1.4X dist. coverage. I might spec. on this one.

    From the transcript:

    Additionally, despite the challenging market conditions we discussed we've successfully added another strategic asset to our network, as we acquired the Casper crude oil terminal in November. The Casper terminal is uniquely situated at the intersection of the Express and Platte pipelines, with storage, rail, truck, and pipeline capabilities, and is underpinned by multi-year take-or-pay contracts with primarily investment-grade refiners. As a result, our total EBITDA contribution from take-or-pay contracts was up to 94% in Q4, and we expect that number to trend higher with a full-year contribution from Casper.

    Our business model of building and acquiring strategic terminals for large, often integrated and primarily investment grade customers, generates reliable cash flow, and allows us to deliver steady distribution growth to our unit holders, as we have done every quarter during 2015. The $0.30 per unit quarterly distribution paid in February represents a 4.3% increase over our minimum quarterly distribution, and our third consecutive quarterly distribution increase. It's important to note that, given our size and where we are in the IDR splits, we are well positioned to both share our high-quality cash flows with unit holders and maintain conservative leverage and dry powder to pursue future opportunities.

  • Reply to


    by burghboy88 Mar 13, 2016 9:43 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 13, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    SANDRIDGE PERMIAN TRUST (PER) today announced a quarterly distribution for the three-month period ended December 31, 2015 (which primarily relates to production attributable to the Trust’s interests from September 1, 2015 through November 30, 2015) of $7.5 million, or $0.192 per Common Unit. The Trust makes distributions on a quarterly basis on or about the 60th day following the completion of each quarter. The distribution is expected to occur on or before February 26, 2016 to holders of record as of the close of business on February 12, 2016.

    During the three-month production period ended November 30, 2015, total sales volumes were lower than initial Trust estimates and oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) experienced continued depressed pricing. As no additional development wells will be drilled, the Trust’s production is expected to decline each quarter during the remainder of its life.

    each or their last 3 quarters their distribution has been 1/3 lower than the previous, down from .64 to .192. Reading their above PR from end of Jan. I'd say a good chance of another big reduction or elimination coming on next announcement, just like most of all other MLPs. If you're buying for the dist. I'm sure there's better, more secure places to put your money. I'd still stay away from MLPs unless it's just for spec. A lot of money has been made the past few weeks on big bounces in those MLPs that have been crushed but that doesn't mitigate the risk in them and some will no doubt go BK. You did imply you're a "dividend hunter". JMHO.

  • Reply to

    MFA declares

    by bobdbeck Mar 11, 2016 12:46 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 11, 2016 6:35 PM Flag

    kee, should be sometime next week on NRZ. I own mucho shares since the spin off almost 3 years ago and currently have no intention of selling. Of course my cost basis is obscenely low as much of my position I own from my NCT shares bought at $0.41 back in '09 :~) Go through those comics carefully. You might have a gold mine there.

  • Reply to

    Telling you; NMM

    by jkprice Mar 11, 2016 11:50 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 11, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    keebon, correct, re: BDI. Has been trickling up for a couple of weeks after trickling down for months and months. Will be a long time before the BDI becomes relevant again to the upside.

  • bobdbeck by bobdbeck Mar 11, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    regular .20 dividend for 1Q. I've owned this one for a number of years and has been consistent dividend payer. Not too great for cap appreciation but pays me over 11% to hold. One of the lowest leveraged REITS out there and although B/V fell a bit in 4Q (as have most REITs) it's still selling at about an 8% discount, better than almost all REITs. I just doubled down on my position.

  • Reply to


    by jkprice Mar 7, 2016 2:12 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 10, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    jk: You don't mind if I hope you never trigger those buys on STON, will you. I had to use my will power to refrain from giving you a red thumb :~)

  • Reply to


    by jkprice Mar 7, 2016 2:12 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 10, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    Just got the STON K-1 today. UBTI (- $245). JFYI

  • Reply to

    What happens tomorrow?

    by jkprice Mar 7, 2016 12:04 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 10, 2016 7:49 AM Flag

    Heck Huff, I thought everyone knew that. The market officially closes for trading at 8pm est. As long as the trade is dated the day before x/d you get the divvy. Geezzz, you west coasters are picky!! You still have hairs to split? LOL.

  • Reply to

    What happens tomorrow?

    by jkprice Mar 7, 2016 12:04 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    Nope. You have to own it at market close on the day before x/d. Forget the date of record, which is usually 2-3 business days after x/d

    "The ex-dividend date is the day on which all shares bought and sold no longer come attached with the right to be paid the most recently declared dividend. This is an important date for any company that has many stockholders, including those that trade on exchanges, as it makes reconciliation of who is to be paid the dividend easier. It is just as important for investors, however, since you must own a stock before the ex-dividend date in order to receive the next scheduled dividend.
    Prior to this date, the stock is said to be cum dividend (“with dividend”): existing holders of the stock and anyone who buys it will receive the dividend, whereas any holders selling the stock lose their right to the dividend. On and after this date the stock becomes ex dividend (“without dividend”): existing holders of the stock will receive the dividend even if they now sell the stock, whereas anyone who now buys the stock now will not receive the dividend."

  • Reply to

    What happens tomorrow?

    by jkprice Mar 7, 2016 12:04 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 6:17 PM Flag

    3/11, this Friday. 3/14, Monday is X/D.,

  • Reply to


    by jkprice Mar 9, 2016 1:24 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    Use oil of you like but I"ve been watching the BDI for almost 10 years and it has a long way to go to put any substantial profits into the bulkers, at least to the 1,000 mark. Gone are the good old days of 12,000 and making money hand over fist shipping to China. The only positive for the shippers is they're saving a bundle on fuel but at rates in the 300s they're still gasping for air.

  • Reply to


    by staggman99 Mar 7, 2016 10:41 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    Stagg, you made the comment about AJ Cohen, I was just refuting it. According to Wiki she's batting less than .200 on her prognostications. I'll take Mario Mendoza over her. There's no one batting even 500 that I can think of, but I'd listen to David Tepper if I had to choose. Been right about half the time and done OK with his picks.

  • Reply to


    by staggman99 Mar 7, 2016 10:41 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    Stagg: Look at my previous post, re: Abbey Joseph Cohen. I don't wish that track record on anyone.

  • Reply to


    by staggman99 Mar 7, 2016 10:41 AM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 9, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    LOL, I always refer to her as Abbey (one lucky call) Joseph Cohen: From Wikipedia:

    Successes and failures[edit]
    She is famous for predicting the bull market of the 1990s early in the decade. However, she failed to predict the dramatic stock market decline of the early 2000s and developed a reputation as a so-called "perma-bull" and was ridiculed for her continuous bullish predictions after March 2000 as market indices collapsed.

    Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great crash of 2008. In December 2007, she predicted the S&P 500 index would rally to 1,675 in 2008. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741 by November 2008, 56% below her prediction. On March 8, 2008, Goldman Sachs announced that Abby Joseph Cohen was being replaced by David Kostin as the bank's chief forecaster for the U.S. stock market.[7]

  • bobdbeck by bobdbeck Mar 8, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    has not reacted in any way to the sudden surge in commodity prices (iron ore, etc). I'll use that as my barometer whether to increase my shipping positions.

  • Reply to

    Housing, are back to another crash to happen?

    by jkprice Mar 6, 2016 1:47 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 6, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    jk: Mortgage rates continue to fall, housing in many areas is tight, and getting tighter and employment numbers look (if you can believe the labor statistics) like they're getting stronger.. I"d like to see those "warning signs" - OUTSIDE of Houston or oil dependent areas. Em

  • bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 5, 2016 1:56 PM Flag

    That's totally correct Vinny. Preferreds have to be brought current before any common can be paid. Here's an interesting take on the common units from the IV board:
    Re: VNR suspends common and preferred distributions / stock @ $2.60
    Stock ended the week at $2.60 ... but this news came out after the closing bell...Monday might be lower... BUT after reading VNR's statement and looking at the accounting figures.... IF ...if you think $40==$45 is a doable target price before year's end ...with Nat. Gas probably more important here.... then VNR could easily EASILY be a triple gain some time this year.

    What this report shows...that bankruptcy in 2016 has a low probabitlty at stagnant pricing and with the slight recovery so far in oil prices over the last couple of weeks...$40-$45 does look like it can happen in our life times and soon.. that bankruptcy is no longer an option.

    So what do you have at risk here? A $33 a share stock now at $2.60. An asset based that management for the last couple of years has an estimated life of roughly two decades. And the recent completion of two mergers with proven researves and excellent drilling success. Worse risk is you lose $2.60 a share ... vs upside that this stock could in a few years be above $20 and paying a good dividend. SOooo buying 1000 shares = $2,600 with a target price of $25,000 to $30,000 .... of course you might want to buy over time more than a 1000 shares, but in today's worth of the dollar, $2,600 is much less than many spend in a weekend in Las Vegas ending up with empty pockets and a hangover.
    Edit note... restoring the old dividend would pay you back in one year. "

  • Reply to

    NYMT coming back nicely, along with NRZ

    by rbgambler99 Mar 3, 2016 3:02 PM
    bobdbeck bobdbeck Mar 5, 2016 8:36 AM Flag

    Vin. I don't think NYMT has any carry forward retained earnings, as other REITs and BDCs have accumulated in the past, to make up the shortfall between earnings and payouts. I remember back when when AGNC used to throw in retained earnings every quarter so as not to have to cut the dividend. When they ran out down went the divvy. I think they'll cut which is why I'm waiting. Should know for sure very soon.