I suppose there's no particular logic to it, but I rarely sell within about 40 days of the earnings release, at least when I have reason to believe that there is a decent chance of a positive surprise. What's maybe less important is Q1 earnings. What's more important is forward guidance. Listen to the CC, then decide, IMO.
The economy has momentum. It's weak, but it's there. Did you read the recent article about strong results in carloads? On top of that, I never forget that TRN is much more than rail, and those other businesses have yet to ramp up along with the economy.
Personally, I have a big tax problem if I sell right now. It becomes a long-term gain on April 23 for me, but regardless, I may, if only temporarily, shed at least a portion of my holdings if the CC leavs me with "meh".
As is often said, there are many reasons for an insider to sell. What's the point of having money if you can't spend it? Maybe it's time to buy a new home, a yacht, give to charity, or distribute some cash to family. You can't do that with the shares.
Mr. Wallace sold 90K shares, for over $6mil. He still owns $42 million worth of TRN shares. Mr. Menzies cashed out of a mil, but still owns over $8 million in shares.
On top of that, these guys probably have a bunch more options in their pockets that they received as compensation and will be exercising over the coming months. No use taking it to your grave.
Don't ever grant too much legitimacy to what analysts say. For the most part they are clueless boneheads. That said, I find it interesting that the consensus annual estimates have now risen to $6.87 EPS for 2014, per TD Ameritrade.
Obviously, that is even higher than the midpoint of management's guidance. The range is a tight $6.60 to $7.10. $6.19 for 2015 and $6.89 for 2016, which would be a semi-long-term span of really solid earnings. Those kind of earnings can be put to phenomenal use in growing the company. Even $6.00/sh for 3 years would be nearly a $billion and 1/2. Isn't that interesting?
You are welcome. Options are a valuable tool if you use them properly. You must be very very careful, and I don't know about your broker, but mine made me prove that I was qualified to trade them before I was even permitted to do so.
That quite a lot of data, but here are the highlights: March call 17.5 strike: volume 167, puts volume 25.....April 17.5 call volume 42, puts 0.....June 17.5+20 calls volume: 284 contracts, puts 0.....Sept 20 calls: 58 contracts, 15 puts: 20. The ratios of open interest are similar.
That looks pretty good, but IMO is not breathtaking.
I believe the phenomenon you describe is called "filling the gap". My crystal ball is currently down, so I cannot tell you if that will happen or not.
My dad was in the oil/chemicals industry, so I have always had an interest there. Everything I am reading these days is that there is not going to be any letup in the activity for at least a few years, which I interpret as nothing but green lights as far as one can see on the horizon. Add in everything else that is going on with the economy, Mexico, DOT-111 regs, grains, automobile sales, Keystone "delays", the potential for barge, wind towers and construction picking up any sort of motion and geez, the stars are just aligned.
I don't know about $100. This company, in the 7 or so years I have been following them, has always traded at a low P/E. The reason for that, IMO, is that it is A) not seen as a growth company, and B) it is very cyclical. As soon as the conventional wisdom swings (cycles) to the belief that the railroad industry's purchases of cars is within a couple of years of waning, look out.
Right now, that is at least several years away, but the "smart money" is unlikely to drive us to P/E levels that simply haven't been seen in a very long time, if ever. That sort of contradicts another post I made, and I hope I'm wrong and we do see $100. I just wouldn't bet on it.
TRN opened Jan. at ~54, finished ~58. Assuming all the shorts sold at average $56 (11.75% at Jan. 31), and none have covered yet (yeah, I know, but whatever) difference of $14.75 per share times 9.165 mil shares sold short = $135 million in losses for the shorties.
P.S. The other thing: Momentum. Don't fight big mo. If the chart flattens out, maybe sell then, yeah, but not now.
Don't do it, sideout. In the last couple years I made very nice profits on several different companies and sold when their forward P/E's got to near 20. Since I sold they doubled again. Doubled. grrr. This was, like, 4 different companies that did that to me. I won't make that mistake here.
With a forward P/E of around 10, don't you think TRN should go up more?
When I am bullish, I prefer to either own the stock outright or sometimes(!) short the puts. You don't catch a falling knife, right? By the same token, don't stand in front of a train that is barrelling down the tracks at 90mph (pun intended)!
I am long big-time and planning to EVENTUALLY sell calls short to collect the premiums, bt NOT NOW! The barely-ITM calls are paying around $2/mo premium. That's awesome. Do that every month for a year, and, though obviously the end result also depends on the underlying performance, collect $24/yr/sh just from the premiums.
I betcha the word "split" has crossed somebody's lips at HQ. Splits are usully profitable for longs. TRN has only exceeded $60/sh once before; in 2006, and when that happened they did a 3:2 split.
Yeah, but that's with average volume, and there isn't going to be average volume the next 7 days.