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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

bobinseco 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 23, 2015 11:47 AM Member since: Sep 7, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Price Action...... Here comes the Judge?!?!?

    by dancarroll636 Mar 23, 2015 9:47 AM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 23, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    P.S. I suppose it's worth mentioning that a couple years later the brokerage changed how orders are handled. Before executing the orders now you get a confirmation message to confirm the data is entered correctly.

  • Reply to

    Price Action...... Here comes the Judge?!?!?

    by dancarroll636 Mar 23, 2015 9:47 AM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 23, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    There was one single trade of 400 shares at exactly 9:30 for $38.19/sh. You can bet that somebody screwed up and failed to make their order a limit. I lost $800 on a trade similar to that about 7 years ago. I had entered a limit price on a call option (sell to close) but when I clicked "enter" the price reverted back to the bid price, which as you may know on an option was nowhere near the intrinsic.

    I screamed bloody murder to my brokerage for their website's gaff to no avail except being given a bunch of free trades during a period when my trading was pretty quiet. Grrr.

  • Reply to

    Price Action...... Here comes the Judge?!?!?

    by dancarroll636 Mar 23, 2015 9:47 AM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 23, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    But wait... GBX made that announcement just last Tuesday. Since then TRN has WAY outperformed GBX, so maybe this increase is more of a story about the lawsuit collapse and short covering?

  • Reply to

    Price Action...... Here comes the Judge?!?!?

    by dancarroll636 Mar 23, 2015 9:47 AM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 23, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    The market is stupid. Beyond that, though, I give it three reasons. 3) Price of oil has recovered a little bit from the 42's we recently saw. 2) Lawsuit implosion. ...and the number ONE reason for the price action: GBX's announcement that they took orders for ANOTHER 10,100 railcars in the quarter ending February 28!!

  • I was kind of wondering why we are up so solidly today, until I saw the Greenbrier news from this morning. Heck, the market is down and so is the price of oil, but Greenbrier just this morning announced they got another 10,100 orders for cars in the quarter ending Feb. 28, and a variety of types of cars. Surely you all know that TRN sells more railcars than GBX, so this is really positive news. The article can easily be found here on Yahoo.

  • Reply to

    Brent vs. WTI

    by bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 12:25 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    It didn't take me long to get an answer to that question. From "econbrowser": today North Dakota’s Williston Basin Sweet is fetching less than $29/barrel. I wasn't looking for that info. I just stumbled on it. The article was probably posted yesterday. If you want to see it, search econbrowser u-s-oil-supply-update

    It should also be noted that Bakken isn't inherently less valuable than WTI. It only sells for less because of the transportation issue. In other words, the cost of the rail transportation to market is baked into the selling price.

  • bobinseco bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    LOL, wow. You can't even say "Charlie_Romeo_Alpha_Papa" (remove lower case letters) on here. Yahoo must not be a Everybody Loves Raymond fan.

  • Reply to

    Brent vs. WTI

    by bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 12:25 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Having said that, I failed to mention that Bakken crude apparently sells at a discount to WTI, too, by about another $10/bbl, so that also keeps the trains running even if WTI is almost at parity to Brent. I don't know if the WTI to Bakken spread is still around $10. It was also quite a while ago that I read that.

  • bobinseco by bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    You know, I don't recall there ever being any discussion on this board re: Brent vs. WTI, but it's important for TRN. The spread had narrowed recently to almost parity, and that is very bad. When that happens the trains are likely to stop transporting Bakken to the east coast and buy Brent instead, since Bakken + Rail transport costs then make the Bakken more expensive.

    I'm delighted to see Brent at ~$10 premium these days, and hope it stays there! I think I read somewhere about 18 months ago that it costs about $8/bbl to send Bakken by rail to the east coast.

  • bobinseco bobinseco Mar 17, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    Since mid-December I drove from Colorado to Ohio, then to southern Alabama, then back to Colorado (through Dallas!). I obviously didn't spend any more than 0.1% of that time looking at/for endcaps, but when I WAS looking for them my impression was "holy #$%$... the ETPlus is EVERYWHERE!"

  • Reply to

    Oil Glut

    by jim+long+iii Mar 14, 2015 12:25 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 15, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Ironic that the first time I came here today was a mere 4 minutes after you made your post. You're welcome.

    Gobs of domestic output and low prices is fantastic for our (and Europe's) economy and terrible for our worst enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela and ISIS are getting CRUSHED by this, so even though it is having a seriouly deleterious effect on my net worth I am delighted to see it. In the long run the idiots who have sold TRN will be proven wrong. It's not the frackers who drive this company so much as the economy in general. Listen to the various conference calls! Now, there isn't a market for TRN to sell 8000 cars/quarter in the long term, but it's way too early to cash out. By long term I mean over the course of 10 years, 20 years, 100 years. The party ain't gonna end for at least a couple more years, though. Within a couple of years I expect the rest of the company's endeavors to pick up a majority of the inevitable slack that will occur when railcar sales taper off.

    Even though our output is at a decades-long high, we still have to import half of our consumption, and for that reason I think the SPR is a good idea. We can't extract 18MMb/day, and that can't possibly be resolved within a short time frame.

    The reason for the 5% growth in supply forecast is, IMO, wholly based on price. Make it cheap and they will come. We'll see, huh? Hydrogen is going to take awhile to start making much of a dent, just like wind and solar are still tiny, tiny factors in the overall electric market, and they have about a ten year head start on hydrogen.

  • Reply to

    Oil Glut

    by jim+long+iii Mar 14, 2015 12:25 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 14, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Jim, I know how everyone feels about Bloomberg, but there is an interesting article whose link I forwarded earlier today which describes a lot of what you want to know. Do a search for the Bloomberg article with this in the url:

    u-s-seeks-oil-purchase-for-strategic-reserve-after-2014-sale

  • Reply to

    Im guessing we see $33 tomorrow!

    by tampabaybucsfaninpr Mar 11, 2015 11:07 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 12, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    33 has already been breached in the pre-market, but that (sharp rises/falls) doesn't always mean much once the market opens, obviously.

  • Reply to

    Cleared of Cover Up - Bloomberg

    by wvwvwv12399 Mar 11, 2015 12:34 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 11, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    I mostly agree, but bumps in the road are still possible if "test 8" failed. Not to say I think that will be the outcome.

  • Reply to

    +5% today is better than the -7% yesterday

    by wvwvwv12399 Mar 11, 2015 2:55 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 11, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    The statement on the FHWA's site says the results of the second tests will be released "shortly". Scroll to the bottom and look for the sentence just above "-30-".

  • Reply to

    Shot covering

    by volfan4life2012 Mar 2, 2015 4:46 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Mar 2, 2015 6:49 PM Flag

    Nah. Volume was average, and the market in general was way up. New records everywhere. Plus, this is, what?, the fourth day in the last week we've been over 34, but finally stuck it there at closing. I can't get excited about today.

  • bobinseco bobinseco Mar 2, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Gosh, don't you think you're taking a pretty big chance? Any day now the "official" results of the crash testing might be announced, which will probably happen after-hours, and if the news is good the price may open the following day several dollars higher than the previous close.

    I would at least hold some out-of-the-money options (bought at a small premium) to protect against that potential opportunity loss. If it doesn't happen really soon the price you paid for the options would be covered by your day-trading gains. GLTA!

  • Reply to

    Saudi/OPEC production cut?

    by bobinseco Feb 23, 2015 3:18 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Feb 25, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Possible dealings with terrorists aside, the Saudis are mostly our friends and share some similar motivations. They aren't pleased with the Iranians, ISIS, Russians and Venezuelans either. I believe that the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Iraqis, UAE, etc. threw those other guys under the bus wholeheartedly. I don't believe the BS about wanting to maintain market share at all. They want to punish... especially... Russia, ISIS and Iran. And so do we. Sweet revenge that our biggest enemies are the exact ones who are hurt the most by the plunge in oil prices!

  • Reply to

    Saudi/OPEC production cut?

    by bobinseco Feb 23, 2015 3:18 PM
    bobinseco bobinseco Feb 24, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    I haven't heard another peep about this 17 hours later, so maybe it was nothing more than a rumor.

  • This story just popped up on Marketwatch. Hmmm. Rumor is that they're considering a production cut. I think you all know what that would mean to TRN's PPS.

AGNC
21.58-0.17(-0.80%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT