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China Automotive Systems Inc. Message Board

bobpaulovich 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 20, 2014 9:20 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    what to do now?

    by ginkgopepper Sep 18, 2014 1:35 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 20, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    How do you look up daily short volume for ZX?

    There is no doubt that the price of ZX can get pushed around by someone selling, then shorting, then covering. The big trigger was someone forcing the stock to go below $2.00, Then all holders with line in the sand type orders, at the $2.00 level, are automatically unloaded.
    Once the lower share price shows stability, the short player covers and tries not to get noticed by placing smaller orders in matching quantities to the offering quantities for sale.

    One other issue with the recent price action is that some funds do not want to show owning ZX at end of quarter or end of fiscal year reports. But, if they still believe that ZX is worth holding, they will buy it back, at or near last trading day in September.

    On the positive, we have not heard any news from ZX. Therefore the stocks decline is not the result of any hard news. This should mean that the price movement has no basis other than market antics.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • A $600 million buyback would take out 10% of the float.

    X will now have the money to pay down debt, add to pension assets and buy back shares.

    A company making a decent profit on $18.5 billion in sales, can do very well for shareholders.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 17, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    This has not been easy. Looking into my past trades, every time I sold stocks with similar type of prolonged action, the stocks more often, made a good recovery, soon after I sold!

    The only time I have been right in selling is if there was a fear or belief of bankruptcy, or back when the entire market went bad in 2008.

    Regards

  • The last report was June 16, 2014.

    X rating was lowered from hold to sell with a $22.00 target.

    The lesson here is to never underestimate a company with $18 billion in sales.

    Earnings can easily go to $8.00 and stock can go above $60.00 within 6 months.

    S & P Analyst, C. Muir, was bold with his call.

    A slow growth economy eventually works well for a deep cyclical like X. Past cycles were boom to bust every several years. This slower cycle will be more balanced and stretched out. Profitability will be good even if steel prices don't move up too much.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • There may be some Mutual fund Managers locking in losses to offset gains. They usually move out 30 days prior to quarter end, and try to buy back at lower levels near to 30th date , give or take a few days.

    Could also be any investor individual or fund, in need of offsetting gains with some losses before end of quarter.

    ZX is a thin stock.

    Why no insider/company stock purchases?
    When the company or Chairman has inside knowledge of going private, and buys shares near to the date of the new offer, they could be subject to class action legal issues.

  • Everyone is predicting that iron ore will continue to drop. Vale is still the low cost producer. Lower ore prices will slow output.( Government subsidies for Asia Mines, or not).

    Even with lower iron ore prices, Vale will still earn $7.5 billion this year. I feel confident that Vale will continue to build and deploy big cash.

    Should be worth $20. in a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Very good technical chart.

    by bobpaulovich Sep 5, 2014 1:16 PM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 14, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    I believe CAAS shares will trend higher for an extended period of time. Maybe for several years. China Automotive Systems is in a very good position to obtain multiple awards for new contract business for advanced steering systems. All of the existing Global Manufacturers with production facilities in China, are now being encouraged by the Chinese Government to award business to China based suppliers. Furthermore, the major global steering suppliers are consolidating, ZF and TRW. This will also create more opportunities for CAAS.
    CAAS is already supplying GM, Chrysler/Jeep and VW.
    Ford is to be announced soon.

    Bishop Engineering provides all the steering technology and design work to CAAS. Bishop Engineering works with all of the key global steering suppliers, Europe (Germany), USA and Asia.

    I will do my best to hold onto this stock. It's very easy to sell out too soon.

    CAAS continues to build a pile of cash. This stock could easily double within a year.

    Good luck to you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Sep 13, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Management has not been of any value to minority shareholders. I don't believe institutional ownership has changed much.

    In order to go private, buyout offer would need to be at some level of fair value so that there would be no legal action from institutional holders. I would think that buyout is at least over $3.00. The people at ZX would have to work hard to prove ZX to be worth much less.

    The only other issue would be some strange exchange offer to avert tax implications for the Chairman?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Americans supporting Japan Economy

    by jeyebolt2003 Sep 6, 2014 10:22 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 7, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    It's all about currency manipulation. Japan is now pushing for a weaker yen so they can again try to take business share from U.S., Europe, and Korean Auto companies.

    We forget when the Yen was 700 to the dollar, which gave Japan an unfair advantage. The U.S. Government just let that happen, while the U.S. car manufacturers were not permitted to build auto factories in Japan, per the Japan Government. Also import duties on U.S. made cars into Japan, did not make for a level playing field.

    This time, I don't believe Japan will get away with a weaker yen, without other Countries restricting such one way trading partner policies.

    If the yen was valued fairly back in the 1970's, Japan auto sales in the U.S would have been cut by 75%, even with their smaller higher MPG cars being being in favor at that time.

  • Volume looks good along with move higher.

    Easy to give up on ZX, but this company is priced in the dirt versus fair value.

    Even with a potential new buyout proposal to follow.

    Who ever sold over the last several days, may have been buying in another account. Weak hands may have also been tricked into selling as well.

    No insiders sold anything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Sep 5, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Today's activity, trading over $10.00 to $10.05, as of 1 pm.

    This is the highest level since April 2011.

    The march higher has also been gradual.

    The technical aspects for supporting a continued move to the upside for CAAS, have never looked better.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Sep 4, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    Zacks going to neutral and holding to a $48.10 target,just means they think the stock will be range bound for the time being.
    The economy is still improving and airlines will not lose pricing power anytime soon. With everything going on in the world, fuel should have already been much higher, but is trending lower. If fuel were to move higher for a longer period, the Airlines would add surcharges to the ticket price. We did see some higher fuel costs earlier this quarter, which looks like a one time event.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looking back, we had a spike to a $10.00 close on August 13, 2013.

    Yesterday we closed at $9.67, which is the highest close since the $10.00 close of last year, Aug. 13, 2013.
    Last year, the $10.00 closing price was a spike, which was well above the then, price range.

    Current price of $9.67, is within a range which validates a better degree of support to move higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 26, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    450,000 shares, with most trading in the morning along with a good uptick in price.

    There may be some news to follow soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 22, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    At these prices, the big money is buying and holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 21, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Since the initial proposal failed, which included ZX buying the real estate company, I tend to believe that the subsequent proposal will have to show or prove value for whatever type of transaction takes place.

    They could not prove that the Real Estate company was worth anything. The board, along with an accounting firms review, would not sign off on the proposal. The only way to determine the value of the real estate company, would be to do a public offering, which would confirm that it's not worth anything.

    Hard for the Chairman to do any more damage to ZX to show that it has less than $3.00 share in value.

  • Two conflicting issues:

    The Chairman is more interested in going private rather than managing the actual wheel business.

    However,

    Board members are very credible and will only go with a more straight forward buyout proposal to go private.

    We should still get over $3.00 in a buyout.

    If this company were managed properly, the Chairman could create far more wealth for himself and existing shareholders. He knows nothing about business. This kind of activity will not attract potential new business from Global Heavy truck and Automotive manufacturers. They want the visibility of a public company.

  • Today's move could be shorts jumping out the window, as well as X moving toward some level of fair value.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 13, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    CAAS management did confirm that they are completing a dedicated facility for Ford, and that their steering systems will be going into a Ford pick up. They did not confirm which pick up truck.

    Maybe new business if for mid sized truck like a Chevy Colorado? Otherwise it could be for the full size pick up?

    Either way, these developments will provide good growth for years to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CAAS issues stock to the subs in exchange for buying out minority interest. Why would the subs sell out?

    The minority interest now believes that holding CAAS stock will be well worth doing so. The subs also know what potential new business is at hand.

    This transaction also makes it less likely that CAAS will be taken private.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CAAS
9.99-0.45(-4.31%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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