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China Automotive Systems Inc. Message Board

bobpaulovich 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 30, 2015 10:46 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2013
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  • Looks like the one Analyst ,(Greenridge Global ?) reduced his 2015 estimate from $1.17 to $1.08. We do know that CAAS management, in the conference call, did commit to a +10% sales increase forecast for FY 2015.

    Regardless, CAAS is still very inexpensive and the next earnings report is only six weeks away.

    We can calculate that maybe some one time gains in 2014 may not be repeated.

    Best to wait for the numbers to guide the value in CAAS.

    At this point, I don't expect to hear any more from Greenridge until 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Mar 26, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    We continue to see steady growth in sales and earnings for CAAS. The cash pile keeps growing.

    They say they would be interested in buying a like kind supplier, with broader connections to Auto manufacturers where CAAS has limited or no exposure. We do know that Japan Auto Manufacturers deal mainly with Japan only suppliers.

    We also know that other steering companies would buy out CAAS, but can't due to majority control by Chairman. CAAS is in a leading position in China. interest to buy them out would be strong. I'm sure offers have been made.

    Whatever happens, there is value in CAAS shares. Should be worth double the current price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At some point, when deflation in commodities has played out. Maybe sometime later this year, as we get confirmation that Europe and Japan have better GDP data. South America will lag, but should at least base out later this year.

    The Fed can always take measures to curb further dollar strength. They can burn dollar longs, if necessary. Much like burned Hedge fund shorts in the stock market.

    Even weak economies have needs, no matter how weak wages have become. Things need to be fixed or replaced.

    We used to be in more of a want economy. Now the World is in more of a need economy. Bridges, washers, houses and cars wear out, and now they need to be replaced.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 19, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    The ability for AAL to rack up profits, build a cash pile, deploy,buybacks, increase dividends, get ahead of pension benefits, will continue for a long time. Furthermore, if fuel and expenses go up, they will raise ticket prices.

    Additional meaningful competitors in the airline space may be a decade away, if ever.

    The Government allowed for this grand consolidation of the Airlines.

    I Don't bet against what the Government supports.

    At some point AAL will have earned a 10+ PE, and the shares will be much higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They allow Adam to reinstate coverage with a $28 target, and an underweight rating?

    This is a gutsy move, and Adam must be forecasting some type of disaster?

    Higher interest rates may be an issue at some point, but the Fed needs to see some wage and material inflation before they risk anything. Even so, the broad economy is still seeing slow growth, and real wages do not support much more growth, anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Hard to continue holding CAAS stock.

    Looks like someone sold 30,000 shares, soon after the open. However, I'd need to see much more volume in order to validate the drop of 50 cents.

    Earnings to be released late next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ouch a sharp drop in share price

    by madmax19471952 Mar 16, 2015 11:02 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 16, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    I'm looking for any details of Sidoti's downgrade to neutral?

    Two things worth noting:

    RRD yield is 5.6%, and the dividend is much more secure than it has been over the last 5 years.

    Sidoti has only been covering RRD for the last two years.

    The business is sure footed, and an improving economy and lower energy prices will be good for RRD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 12, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    You make an excellent point. Now that GM's has consolidated their product lines, and is concentrating on building a 17% share of much higher quality vehicles, both the customer and shareholder will benefit.

    The imports, Toyota, BMW and Mercedes are headed in the direction of excessive offering overlap or " brand cannibalization". Having so many varrients of a similar model, is less profitable.

    GM at 17%, holds much greater potential to compete and grow versus when GM was 56%.

    For the record, when GM had 56%, that was in an open trade market. Back in Japan, Toyota has 55%, in a closed market. Why is the Japan auto market so protected by the Japanese Government?

    The US. has been more than generous to Toyota.

    There is a pending open trade deal between the U.S. and other Asian Countries, including Japan. I'll bet money that Japan will not drop their import duties for vehicles made in U.S. Europe and China. As a result, no open trade deal will be reached. That decision, in turn, will force the U.S. to review it's trade policies with Japan.

    Remember, at the stroke of a Congressional pen, a U.S. import duty on Japanese auto imports, would be a disaster for those Japan car makers. This is in spite of Japan companies having factories in the U.S.. Still, millions of vehicles are produced in Japan and shipped to the U.S..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Mar 11, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    GM is picking up shares on the cheap, while they can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hard to believe, but nice to see !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Is very quiet these days!!!

    He kept on lowering GM target down to $27. He did help push GM shares lower, creating a very good buying opportunity.

    I hope Morgan Stanley was short, per Adam's advice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any pull back in GM stock will be bought by GM buyback program. At the same time, all the big investment money will be buying GM shares as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice bounce off the Cramer hex

    by takithom Mar 6, 2015 10:30 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 6, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Why is RRD up in a MINUS 200 point day?

    They have no currency exposure.

    They have no issues with global competition, and this is big.

    A stronger economy has only upside for RRD.

    Now it turns out that RRD is in a very good position.

    S and P target of $19.00 , is very conservative. S/B $25-$30 within 6-12 months.

    Good luck to you.

  • This drop in oil is more the result of being overpriced for a very long time, resulting in the finding and bringing to market excessive quantities of newly sourced oil. Even though the fall was sudden, it was the result of a longer term dynamic. Oil should have cascaded lower, but didn't.
    Recovery in oil may be similar to recovery in gold. A long term bull market in gold usually leads to a long term bear market in gold.

    The airlines industry profits are the result of their very long term consolidation. This consolidation will remain intact for a very long time. Shares are trading at low multiples, which are factoring in higher oil.

    If we get a spike to $100 oil prices, I believe the airlines will raise their prices collectively.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Jim interviews RRD CEO, and reviews details of RRD business.


    This stock is still very inexpensive.

    As this stock goes higher, the story only gets better. They now have increased power to buy other companies, and potentially increase the dividend as well. Also,they may do a token buy back, but no need to.

    The P/E here has room for expansion.

    This stock should work toward $25-$30 within 6- 12 months. Longer term, $30-$40.

    RRD is providing more evidence that they will continue to do well for a very long time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Is this the reason why GM sales were up 4%+ to 231,000 units?

    Most every other auto manufacturer came in below expectations.

    Ford will do better as their new truck ramps up.

    Consumer Reports annual Auto issue lists the Chevy Impala and Buick Regal in their Top 10 Picks for 2015. I just received this Annual Auto Issue, in the mail, yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They should be good for GM.

    Year over year comps for full size SUV's should be very good, since last year 2015's full size SUV's were not produced in volume until mid year, and full production by Q3-Q4.

    Mid sized pick up, Colorado and Canyon adds 100,000 year.

    Full size pick up should also be good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is a good time to buy Crocs.

    by bobpaulovich Feb 27, 2015 9:27 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Feb 27, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Average daily volume is 900,000, and we are near 3.5 mil as of 2:30pm.

    Short interest as of 2/15/15, was at 8 mil., so some of this gain must be from covering.

    Historical short interest is around 2 mil.

    The hope is that we settle into the $10-$11 range over the near term, to establish a decent base.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is a good time to buy Crocs.

    by bobpaulovich Feb 27, 2015 9:27 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Feb 27, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I appreciate your reply.

    The fact that the price is holding today is positive.

    I think the only way it could drop from here, $9 plus or minus, is if the broader market sells off for a few days.

    I'll watch, and add on any weakness.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes, this is a company in transition, due to mistakes made with their growth strategies.

    However,
    Crocs is a trademarked brand, with a design identified by their name.

    We have seen many cheap copies of poor materials, and design. They break easily, and are not comfortable.

    Crocs has no debt, and $4.00+ in cash.

    Sales are consolidating due to the decision to close many stand alone stores.
    Core sales remain intact, with growth potential in global markets,

    Crocs is a good takeover target. If another footwear company wanted to grow in the Crocs space, they could not call their product Crocs.

    The function, comfort and quality of the Crocs products will continue to grow globally.

    Their growing selection of style types has also moved Crocs further into the casual footwear space.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CAAS
7.34+0.16(+2.23%)2:26 PMEDT