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Chuy's Holdings, Inc. Message Board

bobpaulovich 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2014 3:16 PM Member since: Feb 4, 2013
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  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 26, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    450,000 shares, with most trading in the morning along with a good uptick in price.

    There may be some news to follow soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 22, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    At these prices, the big money is buying and holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 21, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Since the initial proposal failed, which included ZX buying the real estate company, I tend to believe that the subsequent proposal will have to show or prove value for whatever type of transaction takes place.

    They could not prove that the Real Estate company was worth anything. The board, along with an accounting firms review, would not sign off on the proposal. The only way to determine the value of the real estate company, would be to do a public offering, which would confirm that it's not worth anything.

    Hard for the Chairman to do any more damage to ZX to show that it has less than $3.00 share in value.

  • Two conflicting issues:

    The Chairman is more interested in going private rather than managing the actual wheel business.

    However,

    Board members are very credible and will only go with a more straight forward buyout proposal to go private.

    We should still get over $3.00 in a buyout.

    If this company were managed properly, the Chairman could create far more wealth for himself and existing shareholders. He knows nothing about business. This kind of activity will not attract potential new business from Global Heavy truck and Automotive manufacturers. They want the visibility of a public company.

  • Today's move could be shorts jumping out the window, as well as X moving toward some level of fair value.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 13, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    CAAS management did confirm that they are completing a dedicated facility for Ford, and that their steering systems will be going into a Ford pick up. They did not confirm which pick up truck.

    Maybe new business if for mid sized truck like a Chevy Colorado? Otherwise it could be for the full size pick up?

    Either way, these developments will provide good growth for years to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CAAS issues stock to the subs in exchange for buying out minority interest. Why would the subs sell out?

    The minority interest now believes that holding CAAS stock will be well worth doing so. The subs also know what potential new business is at hand.

    This transaction also makes it less likely that CAAS will be taken private.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Think of the cash that GM holds. Even if they take a small piece to do buyback, it would be meaningful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Aug 8, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Good point. I'll bet they will do exactly as you say.

    Hard to fight a company making a ton of money, over a long period of time. Look at Autozone and how buybacks have driven share price to the moon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Stock is bouncing around, but holding up.

    Usually weak markets would push CAAS down into the $5.00 range. Anything over $8.00 leading into earnings is very good. Furthermore, the share price has not run leading into earnings. Current price level range seems like a good floor.

    CAAS is evolving into a long term hold. Could be good for long term up trend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 5, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    However, since those who make estimates have relationships with those who are short, we have to wait until the relation type shorts fade their short COH positions. Then, those who make estimates will move up some.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Aug 5, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    The upside now looks better than the downside. May take some time, but may be sooner than forecast.

    Management is already well along with their transition plans.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This should be more than just a spike. Looking at chart history for CAAS, most yearly highs were taken off of a spike type of move. This time we find a much longer range bound pattern, and now a meaningful move higher from that platform.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hallelujah!!

    by bobpaulovich Jul 18, 2014 9:18 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Jul 19, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    Good points.

    It's clear to me that the CEO is not happy with his level of wealth, and is still interested in doing anything he can to become an even bigger fish.
    The independent board members are older with excellent career/academic backgrounds. I think they advised that more money is to made by remaining a public company ( for now), and achieving a solid share price, then using this as leverage to buy something else.
    If the share price goes way up, then the CEO can do many things to build more wealth. This has been the strategy for many public companies, as you know.
    Hopefully, we go along for the ride.

    Looking back, I assume the CEO got bad advise from that outside firm noted in the initial proposal. The CEO forced the idea to be considered by the board. The independent board members thought the idea was absolutely stupid. The only way out of this was to let time pass and form a committee to kill the idea.

    Another thing to look back upon was how the initial proposal described the wheel business as not being that great, and how acquiring the real estate vacation business would be so much of a better way for shareholders to unlock significant future growth and value. Along with this proposal, the CEO would own most of the not so good wheel business, and have an option to buy out the remaining ownership from the new vacation rental version of ZX? Yesterday's press release is a complete reversal, with the CEO saying that the wheel business now holds great existing and long term potential?

    Thanks, Mr TL, for your reply/ insight.

    Our collective conclusions gives us more conviction to hold onto our ZX shares!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hallelujah!!

    by bobpaulovich Jul 18, 2014 9:18 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Jul 18, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    One concern I have is in the wording of the press release;

    Preliminary proposal be withdrawn? Preliminary may mean that they will make a subsequent proposal to follow soon?

    However, the only thing we may see is ZX going private. The buyout price, worst case, should still be higher than current quote. The only problem might be ZX quarterly release, to be tweaked to look bad in order to issue low ball buyout offer. Any funds would still threaten legal action regarding fair share value.
    It's that word "preliminary", that was placed in their statement, concerns me.

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Jul 18, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    For all those who held their shares for a half year+, with very minimal subsequent news regarding this convoluted proposal, my congratulations to all.

    Seems like the Chairman has finally got some religion, realizing that his financial fate will be great by just standing pat and allowing all shareholders to prosper.

    One other note:
    Whoever bought shares yesterday, did have this inside information, ahead of this announcement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Also major Supplier to Chrysler/Jeep USA.

    CAAS will benefit from consolidation of ZF and TRW.

  • They are steering system manufacturers/suppliers to most Major Global Automobile Manufacturers.

    CAAS is largest in China, and supplies to Chrysler USA.

    TRW mostly USA and Europe.

    ZF mostly Europe and USA.

    Japan car manufacturers get steering from mostly Japan suppliers, KOYO, NSK.

    The news that ZF is interested in making buyout offer of TRW is good news for CAAS.

    Supplier consolidation can create additional opportunities for CAAS. Car companies want to make sure that enough competition exists for each category to keep price increases under control.

    CAAS would have been bought out long ago, if it was not majority owned by Chairman Chen.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The best kept secret this year was the fact that GM management kept mostly quiet about their new large SUV lineup.

    2015 Tahoe, Suburban, Yukon, Yukon XL, Denali, Denali XL, Escalade.

    Production still ramping up, only out for several months.

    Arlington Texas factory increased production capacity from 250K to 350K.

    Added new stamping facility to Arlington facility. Previously sourced from out of state operations.

    Then what you do is:

    Add-- substantial savings from new in house stamping facility

    Add-- additional $10,000+ to transaction prices

    Add- substantial profits from additional 100,000 production capacity.

    Thus far, sales for Tahoe and Yukon this past month are +100%

    Factory still ramping up.

    Most Dealers have no inventory, due to strong sales.

    No need for GM haters to buy these SUV'S.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If remaining shareholders don't want to sell, then they don't sell.

    COH has the power of brand, product quality and global growth (Asia).

    Annual sales have tripled over the last 10 years.

    They pre announced everything including charges.

    Nothing left to hide.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CHUY
26.30+0.20(+0.77%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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