This downgrade is about 18 months late. AAL can still go down from here, but their earnings are still substantial and can buyback much of the outstanding stock.
What happens if earnings remain healthy even with lowered expectations?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The great thing is that China has 1.4+ billion people, and most do not own a vehicle, but are now aspiring to do so. This gradual transition is in place. China vehicle sales are now 20 million+ per year. Doing the math, the bull market for cars in China should go for decades. GM holds a good leading position in China.
GM, (early on), has embraced the required joint venture arrangements to do business in China. Japan auto makers were slow to accept having to do joint ventures in China, and still have reservations to share.
GM is in a very good position.
No movement from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Looks like the yen target is now between 100-105 yen to the dollar.
Investors need to understand that these days Central banks are working together. The World needs a weaker bias for the dollar, in order to have some level of inflation. While a very strong dollar is a good short term fix for Japan, the rest of the World takes on deflation and weaker sales, which, in the end, drags down the Japan's economy.
Japan needs to stimulate demand within their own economy.
Fair value for the yen should be in the middle of it's five year high and low, which is 100-105yen.
Carter was on Fast Money, back in February. At that time ,he put up a chart on GM and gave it a $21 target and advised to sell the stock.
I think this has turned out to be a bad call.
I wish Fast Money would ask him to come back on the show and have him revisit the GM chart.
He has had a serious problem with figuring out if GM is buy or sell? Over the last two years, Jim has been burned every time has had a buy rating on GM. Recently, he had a buy on GM, then changed his mind once he saw the 300,000+ pre orders for the new Tesla.
GM is now at a point where a low P/E will give the company the opportunity to buyback a great deal of GM's outstanding stock.
Even if Jim and others are negative on GM, their earnings continue to grow and pile up.
Just two months ago, Adam lowered his target to $26 on GM, with a sell rating.
Adam is considered a top Automotive analyst. He has maintained a brutally negative stance on GM for a number of years. With today's earnings beat, I expect Adam to now come out with even more negative futuristic predictions on how GM will drastically lose business to ride sharing. He may even say that farmers, with pickup trucks, will also become ride sharers.
I don't see him giving up the ghost anytime soon.
While he continues to be wrong, GM keeps building up vast profits.
The blackout period for the buyback will be lifted within two trading days. GM needs to buy back at least $500 mil worth of stock every month.
Pretty hard to hold back GM stock anytime soon.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Could be a very good report.
GM will be rolling out many new vehicles over the next several years. Product development at GM is much more proactive. The days of the aging lineup are over.
The share buybacks will also be reactivated within several days of the earnings release.
Earning $8.5+ billion a year does add up over time.
Yen was at 125 in Q4 2015. Looks like fair value is around 100-105 yen. This tightens profit margins for Japan auto makers. A 15 yen move on an $80,000 Japan made Lexus, reduces profits by $10,000+.
Since the yen is a free floating currency, Japan's central bank policy may not help. This is because Japan has an ongoing large trade and currency surplus.
TM could be a good buy, but we need to see currency level out first. Dollar yen is now 110 jpy/usd. I think fair value is closer to 100-105 jpy/usd.
No matter what Japan central bank policy is, the Yen is a global floating currency, which determines fair value.
The idea of a slowdown in business related travel, is the call Deutsche should have made last year when oil and gas fell to nothing. Oil companies cut travel quickly. Now with a weaker dollar, U.S. multinationals will be converting better margins from overseas sales.
I think Deutsche needs to cut their estimates for their own business!!
The Deutsche downgrades will blow over fast.
As long as AAL keeps minting money and buying back shares, the share price will trend higher. What is amazing is that the low share price is out of sync with AAL's ability to buyback tons of stock.
This number may be just for retail. Additional units above this number go to Canada, Mexico and elsewhere. Arlington, Texas factory builds close to 30,000 units a month.
Janet Yellen wants the dollar to buy only 100 yen, not 120 yen.
Not good for Japan exporters.
At 100 yen, profits for Toyota exporting Lexus vehicles dwindles to very little, vs recent 120+ yen conversion boon.