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R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company Message Board

bobpaulovich 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 21, 2014 12:06 PM Member since: Feb 4, 2013
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  • Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas continues to hammer GM and lowers price target to $27.00.

    Today Susquehanna issues new coverage with $30 PT and neutral rating.

    However, Goldman Sachs still has buy rating but lowered PT to $47 from $48. ( was conviction buy but now still buy).

    I believe the Ford news has about weaker forecast has put pressure on GM. However, GM has made big bets with their new lineup of full sized SUV's. These completely new vehicles have been very well received, and are selling near list with no factory discounts. Last years old designs GM sold 187,000 units. This year is well above, with substantial margins from much higher selling prices. GM's rebuild of their Arlington, TX factory can produce closer to 300,000 units. The reviews have been great, as they are great products.

    These profits should now start to show is their third qtr.

    These are big, big profits.

    Ford has 12 year old designs with only updates. Potential buyers know this.

    Go tho the dealerships and compare.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If fuel does go up at some point, the airlines will just raise prices.

    Ebola has been around for 40 years.

    Looks like AAL will continue to earn big money. The sellers can't overcome this positive.

    Great earnings along with continued great earnings, = buy!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Oct 14, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    I'd hate to think that this move is no more than a John Deere Combine mulling over some shorts lying in the field!

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Oct 14, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Looks like more than just short covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's easy to look at moving averages, patterns and charts. Professionals are betting that a stronger dollar will weigh on Dow earnings. However, the slow and steady weak growth or even no growth, is great for Dow. They have been repositioning the company to take advantage of low cost energy, as they grow globally via new manufacturing operations, along with joint ventures.
    Even if growth tightens up, Dow continues to pile up money, year after year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley downgrade of GM is suspicious.

    by bobpaulovich Oct 7, 2014 11:39 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Oct 7, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    I didn't read anything on Yahoo.

    I do think Yahoo is expensive.

    But, it's always important to realize that companies like Morgan Stanley can "talk their book".

    They position their investment in a particular company, ahead of their analyst/research/opinions.

  • Adam Jones of M-S, lowers target from $29 to $27, and maintains underperform rating.

    My guess is that M-S has a great short position in GM.

    If this is true, M-S wants to unwind their short position prior to earnings.

    Last week, the GM presentations detailing current and future margins would have been much more conservative.

    Adam Jones needs to tally the profit per vehicle, for the new GM large SUV's.

    The Tahoe, Suburban, Yukon and Escalade are selling so well that dealers are mostly out of stock. Annual volume will exceed 250,000- 300,000yr. Profit per vehicle is $12k to 25k. The Ford large SUV products are old design, and they did not spend the money to make totally new products. GM knows this market and has complete confidence in the large SUV replacement cycle.

    It is also interesting how Adam Jones forgot to mention GM's business in China? I wonder why he forgot?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Oct 1, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    They have a ton of money and they are seeing profit margins expanding. The all new large SUV's have great profit margins, and competition has bet against this segment.

    GM owns the large SUV space.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Also, since Mary Barra is giving the presentation with all the details, I'd bet on good news for GM shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Manipulated Stock Have No Set Price

    by tradelogic2001 Sep 22, 2014 4:07 PM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 23, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    I'm glad to see we are all on the same page. I look at some of these other message boards for more popular stock issues, and they are all overrun with crazy people leaving multiple crazy messages.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Sep 23, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    Not easy to smile today. We should hold onto $9.00-$9.50 range.

    However, we could move into the $8.50 range, if the broad market has a strong quick sell off.

    The CAAS chart still is from lower left to upper right.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The indexes don't show individual stocks like AAL getting hit. The broad market is so strong that it is able to hide damage to individual stocks. At some point the broad market index may break lower, which should turn into a buying opportunity.
    We could be in this mode until we get to earnings season.

  • Moving into earnings season, GM has nothing to hide. Earnings ex items will be strong. Large SUV's , dealers can't get enough. The profits from these vehicles alone are substantial.

    Best thing to do is to go visit the dealer and ask to see, on hand, large SUV inventory. Maybe they have a demo or so, on hand, anything else is already sold.

    Look up monthly production and sales volume. Factory expanded production to 300,000 yr. +

    GM will not say what they earn from these vehicles, but, they sell for $50k to $85k, and I bet they make between $15k-30k on each one.

    Furthermore, these are very good vehicles.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what to do now?

    by ginkgopepper Sep 18, 2014 1:35 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 20, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    How do you look up daily short volume for ZX?

    There is no doubt that the price of ZX can get pushed around by someone selling, then shorting, then covering. The big trigger was someone forcing the stock to go below $2.00, Then all holders with line in the sand type orders, at the $2.00 level, are automatically unloaded.
    Once the lower share price shows stability, the short player covers and tries not to get noticed by placing smaller orders in matching quantities to the offering quantities for sale.

    One other issue with the recent price action is that some funds do not want to show owning ZX at end of quarter or end of fiscal year reports. But, if they still believe that ZX is worth holding, they will buy it back, at or near last trading day in September.

    On the positive, we have not heard any news from ZX. Therefore the stocks decline is not the result of any hard news. This should mean that the price movement has no basis other than market antics.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • A $600 million buyback would take out 10% of the float.

    X will now have the money to pay down debt, add to pension assets and buy back shares.

    A company making a decent profit on $18.5 billion in sales, can do very well for shareholders.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 17, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    This has not been easy. Looking into my past trades, every time I sold stocks with similar type of prolonged action, the stocks more often, made a good recovery, soon after I sold!

    The only time I have been right in selling is if there was a fear or belief of bankruptcy, or back when the entire market went bad in 2008.


  • The last report was June 16, 2014.

    X rating was lowered from hold to sell with a $22.00 target.

    The lesson here is to never underestimate a company with $18 billion in sales.

    Earnings can easily go to $8.00 and stock can go above $60.00 within 6 months.

    S & P Analyst, C. Muir, was bold with his call.

    A slow growth economy eventually works well for a deep cyclical like X. Past cycles were boom to bust every several years. This slower cycle will be more balanced and stretched out. Profitability will be good even if steel prices don't move up too much.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • There may be some Mutual fund Managers locking in losses to offset gains. They usually move out 30 days prior to quarter end, and try to buy back at lower levels near to 30th date , give or take a few days.

    Could also be any investor individual or fund, in need of offsetting gains with some losses before end of quarter.

    ZX is a thin stock.

    Why no insider/company stock purchases?
    When the company or Chairman has inside knowledge of going private, and buys shares near to the date of the new offer, they could be subject to class action legal issues.

  • Everyone is predicting that iron ore will continue to drop. Vale is still the low cost producer. Lower ore prices will slow output.( Government subsidies for Asia Mines, or not).

    Even with lower iron ore prices, Vale will still earn $7.5 billion this year. I feel confident that Vale will continue to build and deploy big cash.

    Should be worth $20. in a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Very good technical chart.

    by bobpaulovich Sep 5, 2014 1:16 PM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Sep 14, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    I believe CAAS shares will trend higher for an extended period of time. Maybe for several years. China Automotive Systems is in a very good position to obtain multiple awards for new contract business for advanced steering systems. All of the existing Global Manufacturers with production facilities in China, are now being encouraged by the Chinese Government to award business to China based suppliers. Furthermore, the major global steering suppliers are consolidating, ZF and TRW. This will also create more opportunities for CAAS.
    CAAS is already supplying GM, Chrysler/Jeep and VW.
    Ford is to be announced soon.

    Bishop Engineering provides all the steering technology and design work to CAAS. Bishop Engineering works with all of the key global steering suppliers, Europe (Germany), USA and Asia.

    I will do my best to hold onto this stock. It's very easy to sell out too soon.

    CAAS continues to build a pile of cash. This stock could easily double within a year.

    Good luck to you.

    Sentiment: Buy

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