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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

bobpaulovich 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2015 11:09 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2013
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  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Apr 18, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    The pace of their cash build is very powerful.

    As the shares of AAL stay somewhat depressed, the pace of share buybacks may be accelerated. The board can decide this in short order. Cost of capital is low and powerful.

    Once a company gets ahead of a share count reduction, the dynamic can continue on forever.

    Regarding oil prices, if they do work higher, so will ticket prices. For now, any big moves in oil will bring on more supply from heavily indebted sources who need the money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In a news conference today, Obama stated that we need open access to the Japan car market, as a part of open trade pact.

    We do know that the Japan ongoing strategy is to protect their market from imports, but invade other markets with exports.

    This topic is now on Obama's radar.

    This mentality can easily hold bipartisan support.

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Apr 17, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    I do believe that the CEO can buy out the remaining shares in short order. He does own most of it already.

    I do think the benefits for the CEO to buy out this company have diminished. It is true that ZX can save money by not having to report as a public entity.

    Looking back over the past year, I do believe the CEO had been ill advised with regard to the prior company exchange buyout offer.

    In the end, it may be most beneficial for the CEO to increase the value of ZX shares as a public company. He does own most of them.

    As a supplier to truck/auto/agricultural and mining industries, these companies favor giving business to publicly listed companies having good transparency and financial stability.

    True, anything can happen, but the downside to owning ZX seems limited at this point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Apr 17, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    I stand corrected !!

    When they do report, ZX converts to both American depository pricing and RMB equivalents. Usually, this breakout boils down to a multiple market listing.

    I thought I read this somewhere, but maybe it was second hand info.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like steady meaningful growth will continue for CAAS.

    I do believe the move toward more Sport Utility sales growth within China is working well for CAAS.

    As CAAS continues to rack up positive YOY comps., we should see CAAS shares gain interest in the marketplace. At some point their track record will gain more respect. This should also lead to supporting an above $10+ share price, as being a good floor.

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Management is showing that they are more open to providing greater detail, regarding their position within the various markets they sell to.

    This should be viewed as being more shareholder friendly.

    My belief is that the ongoing wish to go private syndrome, may now be off the table. Furthermore, management/ownership may now believe that working toward a higher share price is the best way to achieve financial wealth.

    I believe we are near or at the bottom of the cycle for ZX.

    Since the company is in good financial shape, I believe the downside in share price has washed out.

    The upside may take time, but this should be good entry point.

    Also, I believe the shares of ZX also trade on several Asia stock markets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Trying to anticipate the day to day moves for oil and Airline stocks seems near impossible.

    I do feel that the Airlines, as well as the best oil related stocks, are good investments at this time.

    Also, if oil were to go meaningfully higher, Airline fares would go up as well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looks like the one Analyst ,(Greenridge Global ?) reduced his 2015 estimate from $1.17 to $1.08. We do know that CAAS management, in the conference call, did commit to a +10% sales increase forecast for FY 2015.

    Regardless, CAAS is still very inexpensive and the next earnings report is only six weeks away.

    We can calculate that maybe some one time gains in 2014 may not be repeated.

    Best to wait for the numbers to guide the value in CAAS.

    At this point, I don't expect to hear any more from Greenridge until 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Mar 26, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    We continue to see steady growth in sales and earnings for CAAS. The cash pile keeps growing.

    They say they would be interested in buying a like kind supplier, with broader connections to Auto manufacturers where CAAS has limited or no exposure. We do know that Japan Auto Manufacturers deal mainly with Japan only suppliers.

    We also know that other steering companies would buy out CAAS, but can't due to majority control by Chairman. CAAS is in a leading position in China. interest to buy them out would be strong. I'm sure offers have been made.

    Whatever happens, there is value in CAAS shares. Should be worth double the current price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At some point, when deflation in commodities has played out. Maybe sometime later this year, as we get confirmation that Europe and Japan have better GDP data. South America will lag, but should at least base out later this year.

    The Fed can always take measures to curb further dollar strength. They can burn dollar longs, if necessary. Much like burned Hedge fund shorts in the stock market.

    Even weak economies have needs, no matter how weak wages have become. Things need to be fixed or replaced.

    We used to be in more of a want economy. Now the World is in more of a need economy. Bridges, washers, houses and cars wear out, and now they need to be replaced.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 19, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    The ability for AAL to rack up profits, build a cash pile, deploy,buybacks, increase dividends, get ahead of pension benefits, will continue for a long time. Furthermore, if fuel and expenses go up, they will raise ticket prices.

    Additional meaningful competitors in the airline space may be a decade away, if ever.

    The Government allowed for this grand consolidation of the Airlines.

    I Don't bet against what the Government supports.

    At some point AAL will have earned a 10+ PE, and the shares will be much higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They allow Adam to reinstate coverage with a $28 target, and an underweight rating?

    This is a gutsy move, and Adam must be forecasting some type of disaster?

    Higher interest rates may be an issue at some point, but the Fed needs to see some wage and material inflation before they risk anything. Even so, the broad economy is still seeing slow growth, and real wages do not support much more growth, anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Hard to continue holding CAAS stock.

    Looks like someone sold 30,000 shares, soon after the open. However, I'd need to see much more volume in order to validate the drop of 50 cents.

    Earnings to be released late next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ouch a sharp drop in share price

    by madmax19471952 Mar 16, 2015 11:02 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 16, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    I'm looking for any details of Sidoti's downgrade to neutral?

    Two things worth noting:

    RRD yield is 5.6%, and the dividend is much more secure than it has been over the last 5 years.

    Sidoti has only been covering RRD for the last two years.

    The business is sure footed, and an improving economy and lower energy prices will be good for RRD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 12, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    You make an excellent point. Now that GM's has consolidated their product lines, and is concentrating on building a 17% share of much higher quality vehicles, both the customer and shareholder will benefit.

    The imports, Toyota, BMW and Mercedes are headed in the direction of excessive offering overlap or " brand cannibalization". Having so many varrients of a similar model, is less profitable.

    GM at 17%, holds much greater potential to compete and grow versus when GM was 56%.

    For the record, when GM had 56%, that was in an open trade market. Back in Japan, Toyota has 55%, in a closed market. Why is the Japan auto market so protected by the Japanese Government?

    The US. has been more than generous to Toyota.

    There is a pending open trade deal between the U.S. and other Asian Countries, including Japan. I'll bet money that Japan will not drop their import duties for vehicles made in U.S. Europe and China. As a result, no open trade deal will be reached. That decision, in turn, will force the U.S. to review it's trade policies with Japan.

    Remember, at the stroke of a Congressional pen, a U.S. import duty on Japanese auto imports, would be a disaster for those Japan car makers. This is in spite of Japan companies having factories in the U.S.. Still, millions of vehicles are produced in Japan and shipped to the U.S..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bobpaulovich by bobpaulovich Mar 11, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    GM is picking up shares on the cheap, while they can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hard to believe, but nice to see !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Is very quiet these days!!!

    He kept on lowering GM target down to $27. He did help push GM shares lower, creating a very good buying opportunity.

    I hope Morgan Stanley was short, per Adam's advice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any pull back in GM stock will be bought by GM buyback program. At the same time, all the big investment money will be buying GM shares as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice bounce off the Cramer hex

    by takithom Mar 6, 2015 10:30 AM
    bobpaulovich bobpaulovich Mar 6, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Why is RRD up in a MINUS 200 point day?

    They have no currency exposure.

    They have no issues with global competition, and this is big.

    A stronger economy has only upside for RRD.

    Now it turns out that RRD is in a very good position.

    S and P target of $19.00 , is very conservative. S/B $25-$30 within 6-12 months.

    Good luck to you.

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