Look at the connection between Louie and Jerry Schiano. The companies they are involved with and the connections to various companies. Then email me on yahoo. This might be a good one.
I also ran out of space. Look up Wilbur Ross's connection to Louie Ranieri. Remember Louie? Then cross reference Louie back and see what boards/companies he's involved with. This gets very interesting. Wilbur bought Bethlehem Steel and a bunch of others, Put them all together and sold to Arcatel. Then he did the same thing with the coal mines. After that Banksouth I believe.
Point is, Ranieri knows what collateralized debt is and Wilbur know what distressed assets look like. If Wilbur got out of OCN, then there were no more quick assets. He is not a long term player. FIG will try to steal it and spend the time making it work. And finally, the government doesn't want OCN's stuff back in it's lap.
Hana, you need to go back two years before the auction when OCN/WAC won the bid.
There were weekly auctions run by the New York Fed every Wednesday at 1:30 pm. That's when (I believe) Geitner was auctioning off the stuff NYFed grabbed from AIG as collateral for all the TARP money they laid out. Remember the Maiden Lane Stuff? That was part of it. When the Fed sold the stuff, AIG didn't get the cash, it was taken off the books. The MCDO's were selling so cheap that Goldman wanted to buy them and Geitner told them to stay the H#$^ away because they helped put them un this predicament in the first place. FIG was basically the only bidder and bought tons of that stuff. I believe FIG put a lot of it in NCT.
NCT back then was showing a $60 (sixty) share loss because of mark to market writedowns. It took them 7 quarters before they reinstated the dividend - 10 cents. With the MCDO's they also got the servicing rights. NSM is doing the work. If I remember correctly, the MSR business was split three ways: FIG NCT and NSM. Then NCT spun off MSR business into NRZ - this.
In addition to the HSBC stuff they bought, FIG bought American Finance General from the NYFed. That was another AIG asset and FIG paid about 5-6 cents on the dollar. That FIG spun off into Springleaf (LEAF).
The reason I bring this background up is for a couple reasons. Bank America is/has/was sued by the government. So have the rest of the banks. FIG bought assets from all the big banks. FIG has not been sued by the government. Why? FIG didn't do anything to be sued for. If FIG does steal this stuff from OCN, why would they be sued for purchasing assets?
Before the Rescap auction, FIG was given a bunch of MSR's to perform, about $30 billion. The court publicly announced that FIG had performed the servicing in a satisfactory manner in the same announcement that named FIG as the stalking horse bidder and the expected price was $1.45 billion.
Ran out of space. Bob S.
I'm still sticking to my August 8 prediction posted on this board.
I'm (we're) getting a 11%+ yield while we wait to see if this happens. And JIMHO it will come.
I think NRZ is positioning itself for a spinoff ala NCT.
Go back to the announcement regarding the Springleaf purchase. Nowhere in the announcement does it say anything about MSR's. It's all consumer loans. Then go to Springleaf's website and look at the kind of loans they make.
One of the reasons NCT spun off NEWM is because newspapers are not REITS. Neither are consumer loans, car loans etc. relating to Springleaf's business model. Banks are not making loans anymore. Ask Bernanke how well is home refinancing went. Banks are making money from their brokerage businesses. FIG is moving into consumer lending through NSM and now NRZ. The NEWM and golf courses NCT picked up are the small commercial lending business stuff the banks are shying away from.
Retail banking has changed. I feel that FIG has picked up on this and is attempting to fill that void, over time, for all the business that the banks are moving away from. And FIG, and all its managed businesses are not banks so the same legislation does not apply the same way.
They don't necessarily have to grow the golf business to make money. The newspaper business sucks worse than golf. At least with the golf business you have tangible assets (the clubhouses and the land).
FIG never pays full price for anything - it's always at a discount to face value. When NCT did the NEWM deal, they bought up the outstanding debt and were the largest holder of the newspaper debt. They held $600 million in paper and then went to the other note holders and offered them 40 cents on the dollar. 85% of them took the deal, so then NCT went to the bankruptcy court and the court approved. So the $600 million face in debt is now worth $240 which they hold. That was converted into equity which was spun off and issued to us in the form of stock. They are currently paying a quarterly dividend on a formerly worthless asset. So here is my take on this.
The newspaper business (print) will go away over time, the digital business (which they also own) will grow. The golf courses (land) will never disappear. Nationstar (NSM), another FIG affiliate has a working relationship with KB Homes. FIG also has 70-80% interest remaining in SNOW. I feel the golf is the same kind of play.
If NCT bought the courses at a big enough discount or just forced the sale because they bought the debt at a big enough discount, they could grow the business by cutting costs because of the writedowns on the debt payments. They just might pull this off.
BTW, my golf game floats between non existent and sucks.
Are we going to receive 60 cents/share on 10/31? I would assume so, but they made no mention. Comments?
I can't make heads or tails of these things any more. I bought the leaps, way back when, on NCT Jan. 2015 calls and now if they're in the money, and exercise, I'll have shares of NCT, NRZ, NEWM and now New Residential, plus some cash. Trying to figure them out makes me crazy. I'm still way long all the underlyings. Any help is welcome.
Bob the befuddled one S.
You may be right.
Then again, they might want to try and take it private and there may be groups that will not sell out at that price. I own FIG and with the current P/E, I won't sell at that level.
2011-2012 we dropped over 50%. Way less assets under mgt. 2011 no dividends. Way more shares outstanding and a whole lot less "dry powder". With the market moving like it has been, how many margin calls have gone out in the past month? How much cash is moving to the sidelines? That has to have some bearing on what is happening.
CALPERS said they are getting out of hedge funds and putting $$ into regular index funds. So other pension funds. How is all that money going to be deployed?
At today's close, the yield is 5%. I'll take that yield for this asset class, reinvest and hold on for the ride.
At these price levels, I won't be surprised if FIG buys back a bunch more shares. 2012 FIG bought back 10% from one of the founders and then raised the dividend from 5 cents to 6 cents. Then bought out Nomura and the divvie went from 6 to 8. Plus the top off.
A wild guess? They buy back another 50 million or more shares (at a discount of course), raise the dividend to 10 cents, pay 25 cents EOY, and see how the quarterly distribution goes in 2015.
Keep something else in mind. Our price is dropping a d the price of other assets is dropping as well. With all the "dry powder" and no debt, FIG is going shopping.
Let the thumbs down begin.
Bob "holding on to my a%%", S.
Look at NCT. I know it's $12.++ but they just did a 3 to 1 reverse split so I don't know if that would qualify for what you want. Among other things, they are in senior assisted living facilities (the expensive ones, not the cheapo's) golf courses and mortgage debt they buy at a discount. Their yield is 9% at the current price per share. Reinvest and compound that while you wait for the stock price to rebound.
NCT is also going to spin off the senior stuff so you will get shares in two companies instead of only one. It is a REIT so they have to return 90% of earnings back to shareholders.
The reason for the 3-1 reverse split was so when the spinoff occurs, both stocks should be over $5 so institutions can buy them both.
Not to be a wise guy but, do you mean invest or gamble?
Do some DD on Fortress Investment Group "FIG". The price is falling with the market and it has a 4.5% yield while you wait for the stock price to rebound. I'm long here and FIG.
These guys have ZERO debt. They had (according to my last figure) $6 billion in "dry powder" or $12/share in investible cash. They have $1 billion in imbedded incentive income or about $2.10/share. If that is the money they use for the distributable income they are passing out for special/top-off dividends, then what is the expectations for the stock price moving forward?
Last year, they bought out Nomura's position for a 6% net reduction in outstanding shares. The prior year, they bought out Kaufman's 10% founder's position.
With all this on the table, it would not surprise me in the least if one of the bigger buyers of FIG's stock is FIG itself. I will bet they are buying back their own stock and will raise the quarterly dividend in Q1 2015 to at least 10 cents/quarter. As far as the special/topoff dividends, your guesses are as good as mine.
My guess on the stock price, based on the above info, the share price sometime in 2015 should be around $12.00. Again, JIMHO.
You're way too right.
Add that to all the Indian owned casinos, the Pennsylvania casinos, Delaware casinos, race tracks and off track betting. Does oversaturation mean anything?
Stick with the senior living stuff. If you still want gambling, put slot machines in the senior dining rooms.
You live in Singapore? That's wild.
My former (retired) partner (20 years) is from there. He floated between there, HK and PRC, and lives mostly in Vancouver.
I did one of the environmental overviews on the Three Gorges Dam for him. He passed it on to a friend who was CEO of an engineering firm who was extremely busy in PRC. Was paid very well for my efforts. I do business research for 3-4 clients. What they choose to do or not do is up to them.
You don't work for Jardine by chance? We need to email each other.