$2mil? I can see you doing that.
100,000 shares of HLSS you valued at $20/share. Or maybe 50,000 shares of OCN you bought at $40. Good luck with that.
HLSS is winding down the business. NRZ sent them the $$ and stock. They own it. All HLSS is doing is winding down the remaining paperwork/taxes/filings etc. What is not to understand? HLSS has not traded in several weeks. Don't believe me - check out the historical prices. OCN is next. Next time you shoot off your mouth, check your facts first.
BTW, thank you for your kind words, ignorant, arrogant fool. No wonder you're broke.
HLSS was bought by NRZ. The purchase was completed in June this year. Your DD is somewhat dated or nonexistent.
I'm beginning to think Arky and Richelle may be on to something about you.
They sold or tried to sell MSRs some time ago to OCN.
Watch FIG make a grab. They buy distressed assets at a discounts and this fits the bill perfectly.
You mention 1000 sq ft units selling for $180,000 each. They're not renting apartments - they're renting senior assisted living facilities. Take the communal dining areas, kitchen space, physical therapy and treatment rooms, recreational space, areas for worship, maintainance and work shop areas, laundry, medical treatment space, and offices and add that in to the total square footage of the entire property..
When you do, that drops the cost per square foot substantially. Then add the cost of the medical equipment (which we know isn't cheap). Keep something else in mind. If residents do need medical attention or some form of therapy, that's extra. It's either billed to Medicare or some other insurance provider.
What people pay to stay there is just where it starts. Not where it ends.
I hope you have a better understanding.
Richelle, I might take a piece of that bet.
Grad, NRZ is working with nonbanks. NSM is their partner in the servicing part of the business. They also deal with LEAF which FIG bought from AIG.
FIG, which manages NRZ, NCT, etc., and owns the majority of NSM only buys distressed assets at a deep discount. FIG bid against OCN & WAC when OCN/WAC bought RESCAP at the bankruptcy auction. I think they know the real value of OCN's assets are. And OCN fits FIG's description of "distressed assets".
From the federal governments perspective, I would think that the govt. would just like OCN to go away. If OCN did file for bankruptcy, they would not like to see it back in the courts after having sold it to OCN in the first place. Way too many political issues involved, specially in light of national elections around the corner. I don't have to remind you of the issues involving AIG, Bear, Indy Mac, LaSalle, Countrywide, Ally (read GM) and the such.
Which brings me to a question I hope you can answer. Under the various Quantative Easings, how much mortgage paper did Treasury buy. I figure is right around one trillion. Who is servicing those?
Also, with the China currency devaluation, there may be a serious threat of deflation, which should mean that they are not going to raise interest rates. If this is in fact true, these MSR's should become more valuable, raised rates or not, with their fixed rate of return over time.
Grad, please read my comments posted today on the OCN board. It relates here. Then comment - either favorably or not. Thanks.
Who was downgraded? OCN or NRZ? I believe it was OCN. Regulatory issues, ability to service debt, civil action, etc. I don't recall any of these issues related to NRZ. NRZ keeps raising dividends and making acquisitions. OCN is contracting.
If NRZ is not a servicer, then why are they being paid? NRZ & NSM are partners in the servicing business. NSM is also a mortgage originator. When OCN bought the RESCAP stuff from ALLY during the bankruptcy auction, they teamed up with Walter Investment (WAC). WAC got the origination business. It's called Quicken.
NRZ management (read Fortress) is going to take down OCN when they can digest it. Not in terms of being able to buy it, but also able to handle the work. They will also seek regulatory approval first. All their ducks will be lined up and they will not jump the starting gun. I bet serious $$ I'm right. Meanwhile, the NRZ dividend pays 11% to wait and find out. Tell cparker good luck.
Why? Because the real book value is what it's selling for, if that. And they know it.
OCN is paying NRZ $3million/month to service mortgages. Why didn't they have ASPS service them? They also laid off 100 or so servicers in Houston because of "duplication of efforts". Yep, they sold MSR's and subcontracted out a bunch. That doesn't sound to me like they are in an "acquisition mode".
Their (OCN) stated book value is $20. Has that been verified by anyone else?
Here is my best guess. OCN is having NRZ service that stuff because they can't sell it anywhere near what they paid for it. If they just sold it to NRZ for what it's really worth and not what they paid for it, they would have to write down what they have left on the GAAP mark-to-market rules.
And their real book value might be negative. Now start the thumbs down.
I have followed/owned FIG NCT and the rest since July 2009. I have this game down. Also, I have been following REITS since 1970 (45 years - not a typo).
Email me and I'll give you my phone # and will lay the whole game out for you. In the meantime, click on my name and read the posts I have done on this stuff. The one which may prove I'm not BSing is last August prediction that NRZ/FIG was going to take OCN out. They started when they bought out HLSS this year.
BTW, I live in Eastern PA. I would guess that you are a Jersey guy. If we hook up, the beer is on me, I mean NRZ.
fatoldman: Read the cc transcript posted on NRZ.
They are in the exact same business. In fact, they are the guys who bought HLSS, another affiliate of OCN's NRZ and NSM are servicing some of OCN's MSR's for a fee and have bought some of OCN's MSR's in Q414 and Q1 15, which may explain the decline in part to some of ASPS's decline in revenue. This also may explain why the % of ASPS's business with non - OCN increased, they're doing a larger percentage because the amount of OCN business declined.
Full disclosure - I have no equity in either OCN or ASPS. I am however very long in the FIG basket of companies. As far as NRZ goes, I'm collecting 12% waiting to find out if their model works as planned.
They don't have to. They'll just keep buying OCN's MSR's.
go read NRZ & NSM's announcements. They state what they bought and who they're buying them from.
Go back to when OCN and WAC teamed up to buy the RESCAP deal from the bankruptcy court. They paid $3 billion. The price was twice what he court determined was fair value. FIG was who they were bidding against. Now FIG (read NSM, NRZ et.al.) is still going to get the MSR's but at the original price but one bite at a time.
That's the real reason ASPS and OCN are falling. Their revenue base is being sold off to NRZ a little at a time.
If you want to cover your bets, think about buying the NRZ. It's going to climb next week on their Q2 earnings announcements and forward guidance on the HLSS acquisition. That and the 10% yield they are paying, not counting the dividend increase going forward.
You are right. NRZ will not buy OCN. They'll keep buying the MSR's and not have to deal with all OCN's legal and regulatory problems.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
They're a buyout target alright. Here comes NRZ.
NRZ already bought HLSS from these guys. OCN has been selling MSR's to NRZ and NSM (all controlled by FIG). NRZ did a shelf offering in June and raised $500 million and are sitting on the cash. NRZ has been performing servicing for OCN for a fee. NRZ raised their Q2 18% from the previous quarter. And they report Q2 results next week.
If you think I'm a Johnny-come-lately, go back to my August 2014 posts when I called it then.
Richelle may not be a very likable person but she has been dead right on this thin for a long time.
You go, girlfriend.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I have seen it from +$2.00 to -$11.00 a share. Even if it is reverse from -$2.00 to +$11.00 /share this thing is grossly over priced. No wonder the shorts are having so much fun.
How many shares are there outstanding? Even if they do earn $6 a share, there aren't there many shares. They won't manage their debt.
Please pick apart this post. Beat me up but provide facts.
Good luck to you guys.
I live in Eastern Pa. I would love to discuss golf stuff with you. Please email me, if you wish. I am not in MYCC bought am very long in NCT which is similar.
Did you see the Dec.'14 issue of Golf Digest? There was an article about this exact stuff.
I don't think so. Fortress (FIG) owns 75% of the company. It's not going anywhere. Also, FIG NTZ & NSM jointly own the MSR business. NRZ bought HLSS. HLSS was controlled by OCN. NSM performs servicing for OCN and NSM/NRZ bought MSR's from OCN. And they're still shopping.
You may have it backwards. FIG/NSM/NRZ is buying, not looking to be taken over.
JAbarnes, my guess is they are buying something. Presently besides their own stuff, NSM is also servicing some of OCN's MSR's for a fee. NSM and NRZ are joint venture partners in the MSR business. It they have a handle on OCN's stuff, maybe that's what they are buying. OCN sold $90 billion in MSR's to raise cash and pay down debt. They still owe about $900 million.
Or maybe they are buying something else. NRZ did a shelf offering when they bought out HLSS. Maybe they are going to buy another company outright. Like ASPS. ASPS' share price looks like it may be a target. It's rising way too fast on no news.
That's the way I see it. JIMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy