Over time, it won't track that well I think. It depends on the path, how volatile ILF is. Yes it tracks the daily, but if ILF has lots of ups and downs and is flat over a 6 month period, LBJ can lose 20 or 30%.
I'm a huge believer in Latin America and Southeast Asia for the long term, as well as Africa. Just trying to figure out the best way to capitalize. I like ILF VNM and EGPT a lot now.
Agreed. This Fed meeting was pumped up big time as a possible fear generator so it was inevitable there would be a little drop in the futures unless they really said something to tank the market. If the VIX is around 20 in say, 3 months VXX will be around the 17-18 mark. That's the real tragedy in owning this POS.
Buffet VXX is telling you something- get out! Course the time to get out was 21+. If you hold long enough this will be single digits by Christmas.
No need to number the QE, it's just going forever. They've now gotten things to where no matter how bad any news or earnings number is the market goes higher.
The boys getting frisky. Maybe Labor Day is early but certainly by the end of this year we print 190 and maybe 200.
I have to say with the US market up such a shocking amount yesterday and today I am puzzled by LBJ. ILF continues to really, really struggle.
Let's call it like it is. He's a bad investor and a bad person.
I still think what Ben is doing to savers is ridiculous, especially for the elderly. And he's crushing the middle class with stealth, or not so stealth, inflation. But at this point if the market were to drop even 10% the economy would go into an incredibly bad depression. So Ben, I guess keep pumping... hope you know what you're doing...
Fair value in my opinion is around 1000 on S&P, so let's double it to account for Bernanke and we go to 2000!
And I do mean, PRINT, har har har.
I think 10-13 area is a good estimate. Of course it also depends on how frisky Bernanke gets. If he wants the S&P at 2500, VXX could have an incredible drop. If he only wants 1750-1800, might only drop to 12 ish. What a market! What a Fed chairman! What a terrible long term outlook for America!
Even with the most incredible valuations, stretched to the limits, people have the idea that the market can never go down again. And with a 5th straight year of huge gains, can you blame them? It's a little scary that *everyone* realizes the market is completely out of touch with fundamentals and valuations but is relying on Ben. But hey, why not? I mean we have our central bank deliberately creating asset bubbles to try to kickstart an economy that's been in the toilet for many years now. what could go wrong?
Puts are priced for that though, so doesn't seem like a great bargain to buy puts.