When S&P was in 600s in 2009 he said Buffett ratio was below its average. Well it is now 80% over its average. Can I assume we'll never hear about it again? :)
I hear ya! Probably will take my big profits pretty soon. Not sure if I will try to ride it up to 5 or not. If it hits $16 you are a golden god! Ha. The big thing I would imagine is concerning is that the market is up 100% since late 2011 and KEM is down over 50% since the S&P was 1070!
I'm certainly thinking about covering as the stock market does not appear likely to have another down year ever again. I mean, EVER. We're talking a thousand million years without US stocks dropping, so it will be a hard time to make money off a short.
Your projection of 50% annual return for KEM for the next 3 years seems rosy to me. I really can't get to $14 no matter how I look at the numbers. Can you walk me through the valuation of how you get to $600 million plus market cap?
I think it will be up each of the next 100 years. We finally reached the point where the market is completely divorced from reality and fundamentals.
That's actually pretty good.
ha ha ha, not a chance. Not even a one in a billion chance. NINETY? Are you high? Not even 80, nor 70, nor 60, nor 50. In fact I don't think you will see 40, or 30. I doubt 25 will happen again either.
That would be an impressive drop. It's really tanking after hours. I doubt it will get that low. I thought you were calling for a huge market decline and massive spike in VXX/UVXY? Guess Yellen talked you out of it, lol.
It sure will. As you saw, I got whipsawed big time. Stocks are almost unbelievably overpriced now. Over 20 trailing p/e on S&P, Shiller well over 27 now, Tobin's Q and Buffett ratio way over 100% higher than norms.
I am just about done at this point with my "trading money." 401(K) stuff will now be invested a bit less aggressively, trading account will be used for other projects and will not be in the market at all. Whether it's 2015, 2016, 2017, or whenever, the crash is going to be unbelievable.
Fed cannot and will not raise raise ever IMO. I mean never!
Ballpark estimate says VXX at 35 would mean UVXY at 31. Would love to be short at either price.
I couldn't get UVXY short this last ride, no shares to borrow, so I piled on VXX. Would love to add more at 35 but I just don't think it can get there.
In all seriousness, you're right- at some point they will "suddenly" matter, and we'll probably see the S&P revert to the usual fundamental metrics (p/e ratio, Tobin's Q, Buffett ratio). The trouble is that could be 2015, 2016, 2017, who knows. Right now all three of those ratios are saying 1150-1250, yet we're headed for 2200 by a month or so from now. It's really something to see a third bubble so soon after the last two. The only hope is this time there is real change made as a consequence or we'll keep seeing them.
I can't agree with that though- that's a private transaction, where you're responsible for your own actions. Here, the Federal Reserve is backstopping everything so stocks are not allowed to go down. In the real world, you have risk, you have to run the business, so you have to look at fundamentals. Here, when they tell you they will never, ever, no matter what occurs, allow people to make a decent return anywhere else, valuations in the stock market no longer matter because it is just a theoretical concept anyway.