At that point, we'll have three crashes in 16 years. Everyone will be able to see that the boom/bust/bubble cycles cannot be sustained without terrible long term consequences, and hopefully real meaningful changes will be made. Grantham says 2300 will be the top, then a drop to 1100 starting in 2016.
I meant the drop in HSGFX. Both today and tomorrow. It's hard to blame him too much as this is a bubble of epic proportions now.
What a market!
US economy is basically in recession now if you account for inflation properly. Nobody cares because you can't make a return anywhere else. I thought this could be "the big one" because for some reason I thought Yellen would say they'll raise rates. But it simply cannot and will not be done.
Jeremy Grantham is a long term hero of mine but I have to wonder how he thinks the Fed would ever let this market drop back to 1150 on S&P. Seems insane.
What reason is there for it to ever correct now? She's never going to raise rates. Not 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, or even 2020. Never. There will never again be anywhere to make money other than stocks. So even with the Shiller p/e back to an outrageous 27, you still have to buy. There's no reason it can't hit 40, 50, 100. We could see Dow 1,000,000 and that's a fact because there is in fact no link between company fundamentals and stock prices. For the long term this will have devastating consequences but that could be decades away. Maybe Dow to 150K before a 10% correction.
I'll be looking forward to it. I shoulda been more aggressive today, oh well.
Yup. You nailed it. I was following the UVXY board, there are a bunch of people on there who shorted real heavy and got stopped out in the low 30's. Now it's going to be 20 again this week. One guy in particular lost over 25% of his account shorting it and would be back in the green today. But... that's the game. It could have gone the other way, this could have been "the big one" and then those guys would have been wiped out if they didn't cover. One thing is for sure in my mind, we will see a crash in the next 2 years.
I think we may have already seen it. US stock market is certainly a bubble, but it looks like things are passing over for now.
The last few times he has done this, exactly this has happened.
Well, huge rally today. Who knows? That 1250 is a number the good Doc and Grantham are both clamoring for. Course Grantham says we don't crash until 2016 which would make all the difference to Hussman with those puts. Bottom line is everything is overvalued, it's a real tough environment.
We just might go to Hussman's 1250. Or 1150 or whatever. It sure looks like oil prices are signaling something *very* bad for the global economy.