That's actually pretty good.
ha ha ha, not a chance. Not even a one in a billion chance. NINETY? Are you high? Not even 80, nor 70, nor 60, nor 50. In fact I don't think you will see 40, or 30. I doubt 25 will happen again either.
That would be an impressive drop. It's really tanking after hours. I doubt it will get that low. I thought you were calling for a huge market decline and massive spike in VXX/UVXY? Guess Yellen talked you out of it, lol.
It sure will. As you saw, I got whipsawed big time. Stocks are almost unbelievably overpriced now. Over 20 trailing p/e on S&P, Shiller well over 27 now, Tobin's Q and Buffett ratio way over 100% higher than norms.
I am just about done at this point with my "trading money." 401(K) stuff will now be invested a bit less aggressively, trading account will be used for other projects and will not be in the market at all. Whether it's 2015, 2016, 2017, or whenever, the crash is going to be unbelievable.
Fed cannot and will not raise raise ever IMO. I mean never!
Ballpark estimate says VXX at 35 would mean UVXY at 31. Would love to be short at either price.
I couldn't get UVXY short this last ride, no shares to borrow, so I piled on VXX. Would love to add more at 35 but I just don't think it can get there.
In all seriousness, you're right- at some point they will "suddenly" matter, and we'll probably see the S&P revert to the usual fundamental metrics (p/e ratio, Tobin's Q, Buffett ratio). The trouble is that could be 2015, 2016, 2017, who knows. Right now all three of those ratios are saying 1150-1250, yet we're headed for 2200 by a month or so from now. It's really something to see a third bubble so soon after the last two. The only hope is this time there is real change made as a consequence or we'll keep seeing them.
I can't agree with that though- that's a private transaction, where you're responsible for your own actions. Here, the Federal Reserve is backstopping everything so stocks are not allowed to go down. In the real world, you have risk, you have to run the business, so you have to look at fundamentals. Here, when they tell you they will never, ever, no matter what occurs, allow people to make a decent return anywhere else, valuations in the stock market no longer matter because it is just a theoretical concept anyway.
Market is just a concept. There isn't any reason we ever need markets to reflect reality. I want someone to explain why fundamentals need to determine stock prices.
There absolutely will be a crash. If interest rates rose to even 3% the S&P would lose 40-50% very fast. Of course everybody is long (including me) and nobody sees any risk, just like 1999 and 2007. I am still on board with Grantham, we go to 2350 then 1150 on SPX. So SPY to about 236, then 114.
The important thing here is that we've finally seen a true shift in the market. The market is no longer a financing tool and no longer operates as a discounting mechanism. It is purely a means for speculation. Whenever the third crash comes (probably within about 2 years) people will finally swear off stocks forever. Nobody could possibly argue that a system generating three crashes in 20 years is fundamentally sound.
No, he has not. He claimed to make 60% this year, not 300%, and I'd wager he never made a dime. Nobody making real money posts on these boards so much except for JC and schizo. I use it for entertainment only. Having said that, I'll hazard a guess, say UVXY goes to 15 the next couple weeks and then gets back to 30 by end of January. The market is simply as overvalued as it has ever been.