I'm with you Rex. I've done really well in this bubble but I am starting to get concerned. Continuing to move my stops up. Something isn't right here. If things were really OK in the economy they would normalize rates. I think everyone knows we're very close to tipping back into recession and I think even a rise of 2% in rates would crush the economy. We have big, big problems and I don't know how we're going to get out of this cycle.
What you're saying is the entire system of capitalism is no longer valid. Not disagreeing with you, as banks are now given free money to speculate in stocks and are no longer required to bear any of the losses should they occur.
It's beyond remarkable. Telling people that they don't deserve to be paid any interest on their hard earned savings that have been built up over a lifetime. You don't get paid a red cent and nobody says boo. What a country!
Already entered it. Any 5% correction will result in the markets being closed by executive order.
I bought XIV. Close enough? I will think about selling when SPY hits 300 which should be about 250 for XIV (540 for SVXY).
SVXY can go up to $100,000,000 per share in 11 years.
And what exactly is your evidence that "the big one" is coming? Everybody and his mother knows that stocks are wildly overpriced and yet they go up every day. This could go on until Dow 100K in a straight line for all you me or anyone else knows.
For all I know these folks were almost as much a net loss to society as you are. Doesn't change the reality, people have to buy overvalued securities to have any chance to retire. I wouldn't wish working at Walmart until death on anyone besides you.
It's a crazy game- everyone trying to squeeze out that couple more years of gains to finance a few years of retirement and praying they're not in for the next crash. Yellen Roulette at its finest.
They finally realized fixed income returns won't rise enough during their lifetimes, so they have no chance to retire (or stay retired) unless they get into stocks. They all seemed prepared for the possibility they will be crushed but they have decided to take a flier on the possibility that stocks can keep going up and maybe buy them a couple years retirement.
Sad thing is if rates were a normal 4 or 5% these folks would all be OK. Seems really unfair to have changed the rules of the game on them so late in their lives.
Honestly I don't think we're close to a top. Jeremy Grantham says 2350. Lot of retail folks not in yet. I think you can see some days where the market goes up 500, 600, 700 in a day. Dow 20K is an area I would start looking for a 1 or 2% correction if the economy is still this weak.
I would imagine they would have adjusted their retirement planning a bit. Another reason this Fed nonsense is so insidious.
Look I agree stocks are going higher. They absolutely will go higher with interest rates low. The problem is, unless you believe interest rates will never rise, people buying now will be absolutely crushed. Can you imagine if people could make 5% on their money like in the old days? S&P would drop 40% or more pretty fast. I don't think it's ethical to try to make people overpay for securities by starving them of yield and ending their hopes of retirement.
There is an article out on Barron's right now. Couple of clowns from Stifel just raised their year end price target for SPX from 1850 to 2400. Seriously- #$%$?! There is basically no reasoning either. Stuff is not making sense here. Even if we muddle along like we have been in the economy, fair value is around 1200 or lower by all traditional metrics. Go figure?! God help us if the next recession is only 2 years off or less.
Will not happen. The only thing that can force the 10 year and 30 year higher is if bond holders finally realize how ridiculous it is to accept these rates of interest.