You haven't followed these much I guess. It'll bounce up into 3 area then flatline for a long time.
With a breakeven of 1.80, I feel good.
There were several comments where he predicted 1150 in the past.
How do you feel about his comment that fair value is 940? Notice how in the past he would say the S&P *is going* to triple digits, not just that it was fair value. Personally I see fair value at 1100-1200 but I say we won't ever go under 2000 because Fed won't raise to 2% for decades.
I say fair value is 1150, and it will never go under 2000 again.
A "collage kid." That says it all. You never intended to bet, chicken. If you did you would explain the terms of the bet.
No, you have to explain the bet so I can understand it. I am telling you TVIX will never hit 1.50 again and will be lower than the current price in 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months, etc. I do not understand what your bet is. I wouldn't be surprised if you come back later and "translate" the bet in such a way that you were betting TVIX would drop.
IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE. I CANNOt ACCEPT A BET WHEN I DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT.
Print out what you wrote and take it down to the bodega where all the crackheads hang out and maybe they can understand it. But if you ask someone who speaks proper English, they cannot possibly understand it.
I will bet you 500K that TVIX is lower (split adjusted of course since they will reverse it) than Friday's close in 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months, all the way out to 2018. Get your attorney and get the money in escrow.
The thing is... People have been saying this since 1200 S and P. Everyone knows it's a bubble. You can't make money off something everyone knows. IMO you will never see SPX under 2000 again and probably not under 2100. I see us going up at least another 50 years without a bear market. You have to remember the market is disconnected from fundamentals on a permanent basis, not temporary.
If that happens spot vix should drop near 0 with minimal contango. Until then TVIX loses 10% per month
Yup, he deleted it. Obviously didn't think I would take him up on it.
Still very poorly written. Here's what I'm guessing you mean- take 1 million TVIX at today's close, and if it's 50 cents, you owe me about 550K? If it doubles I owe you a million? LOL. OK, get your attorneys on it.
Read your message out loud and see if it makes sense to you. Come back with a wager that isn't total gibberish and I'll consider it.
There is no risk to shorting these instruments during an equity market bubble.