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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bocamp1 300 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 10 minutes ago Member since: Oct 13, 1998
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  • bocamp1 by bocamp1 Apr 11, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    We have all the info we need to make a logical assumption of success and VALUE for the JV. As to success, we have the previous severe dry eye results. As to value of JV, we have Shire's buy of SarCode in '13. After a partial success of P3 trial for Sarcode's Lifitegrast dry eye drug, Shire bought entire company for 160 million. And no real pipeline other than the dry eye drug.
    So if success here, 40% of JV goes to rgrx. Now, JV doesnt have right to EU, so maybe it goes for a little less, but maybe not, if results really good. So lets say the say 100 million. Thats 40 mil for rgrx. But we have rights to all of EU. If we sell that with the JV to the same buyer, that could be another 60 million to rgrx. So, maybe 100+ million to rgrx. I think that is a lowball with a good results, but it means rgrx gets money for heart and stroke.
    Good job JJ, getting some cash and 10k out of the way.

  • Small trial, i know, but those endpoints hit on that trial (ocular discomfort, total staining, and even tear production) would tell you that we are going to hit endpoints on upcoming. Its all there for those who want to do a little DD

  • It must be approved by the 1 board member from rgrx, and if done after successful NDA, rgrx gets 40% of proceeds.

  • On april 6. This will allow some leeway till larger finance deal. This will go to 3rd q while waiting on trial details.

  • Stock was 50 cents in march of 2014. And 10 years ago, the stock was higher than it is now.
    And Ma will make about 700k this year. Is this man the poster child for greed and non performance? It would be hard to find another ceo who has kept his job with these kind of numbers. Only at dyfunctional, incestuous vaso.

  • Reply to

    Same Pattern

    by bocamp1 Apr 11, 2016 1:42 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 11, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    Total compensation for Ma in 2014 was 369k. For 2015 it was 554k. And a 42k base salary raise for 2016. Total compensation for Castle in 2015 was 595k. Remember, he was paid by vaso about 1.8 million for Netwolves. He made another 22k on a 9% note, payable by vaso. Not a bad rate in this world; all secured by vaso assets. Total compensation for Hill in 2015 was 505k. In 2014 it was 716k.
    Leiberman received 3.6 million from vaso shareholders on the netwolve purchase. He also has a 9% note secured by vaso assets which paid him 21k in 2015. He also billed vaso 300k in legal fees for 2015.
    99 year old Simon Srybnik was paid 100k in 2015. This is 30k and 2500 for every board & committee meeting he attended.

  • bocamp1 by bocamp1 Apr 11, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    Big offer put out to sell shares, but no takers. So, seller hits a lower bid. THis has been the pattern since Netwolves purchase. The street thinks castle, Ma, and Leiberman run this company as if it were private: huge salaries and bonuses with no regard to the owners (shareholders) return.

  • Reply to

    I'M BAAAACK

    by hollisddd Apr 10, 2016 12:52 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 10, 2016 1:18 PM Flag

    The results are not delayed. If you could read SEC docs, you would see JJ has said end of 1st Q, or beginning of second.
    This ceo has a 10k to get done, trial results to coordinate with a foreign speaking partner, and finance demands. But, he should stop everything to speak to retail?

  • Reply to

    Srybnik brothers have to be the source

    by jernst1959 Apr 8, 2016 7:21 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 10, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    I do not know. I would assume they must file, but the shares are coming from somewhere. It makes great sense for them to diversify, given the size of position and basically vaso has given up the reason they originally bought(eecp). No reason to hold. You think another IT company has any interest to them Especially one with this leadership team?

  • What is your problem with an examination of the trial details? No one ever said it would have any influence on results. What you say endlessly about patents will have no influence on patents grants either. But you continue ad nausuam.
    The point, the only point, in making a decision to invest in a biotech is to balance the odds of success vs failure in a drugs trial results. If one determines odds are good for success, as they are here, you make the bet. Does that bet influence trial results? Only you would make the case and then present a false argument against. You are delusional, and as i have said, need serious help.
    You took a little break before, do us all a favor and make the next one permanent.

  • Reply to

    Trial Results....What Matters

    by bocamp1 Apr 9, 2016 8:23 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 9, 2016 8:50 PM Flag

    As i said, shire's drug missed the OSDI endpoint. But, i think rgrx has a better shot because 6 of the 12 questions are vision related. One of the AE's that shire's drug had was it decreased visual acuity in some of the patients. TB4 does not do this. So, if those questions turn positive for rgrx, the OSDI is within reach. This would blow away any other drug and make ocular discomfort less of a miss; if it were to miss.
    As a sidenote, interesting that the OSDI was developed by none other than AGN. Think they might be watching. ?

  • Reply to

    Trial Results....What Matters

    by bocamp1 Apr 9, 2016 8:23 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 9, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    Results will not be "muddy" or "edgy". They might be, as many trials are, nuanced. Then sno's data mining comes in to play. This is always done and may or may not help explain positives of trial.

    RGRX can not miss the total staining and i do not beleve they will. They have shown good efficacy here in the past on a much smaller population in severe dry eye. And nothing subjective here.
    The more difficult to predict is the ocular discomfort outcome. This is highly subjective and based mostly on a questionaire. Here is where ora's expertise comes into play. They must have used patients that do not benefit greatly ffrom the placebo, especially one that is given 4 times a day. But, they say this is one of the things they do in qualifying people for trial. We shall see.
    If ocular discomfort is missed, there are enough secondary outcomes to mitigate. I think the OSDI is even more important, if we are able to hit. Shires drug origianlly had that as a primary, but missed and FDA changed to total staining. But, it is the holy grail for dry eya as it takes into account vision related functions, ocular symptoms, and environmental triggers. No drug has ever hit this and the FDA gives it much priority. But, as they have loosened standards to get more drugs approved, they have taken it off the primary. The osdi is a simple 12 item questionaire. Six questions relate to vision, 3 for ocular symptoms, and 3 environrmental.

  • First- trial results are not delayed or taking longer than expected. JJ has alway said end of first Q or beginning of 2nd. And anyone who has waited on such things in the biotech world knows that these events almost always take longer than first expected. So, another month would not be out of the ordinary. There is alot of data here to analyse.
    Total Corneal Staining and Ocular discomfort score as primary and 4 secondaries: secondary tear film break up, Schirmers test(tear production), OSDI and 6 other outcomes to look at.

  • Now with hollis posting, all the knuckleheads are here today. Bashers making a last attempt to distract longs. The nearer we get to results, the more maniacal they will become. All are cliches in the world of biotech investing.
    Low volume, meaningless trading today.

  • All at lower and lower prices. This tells you what the market thinks of Castle and Ma and Netwolves. They are a complete scam. What a disgrace. Every new strategy Ma comes up with every other year does less and less for shareholders. And yet he will pocket about 600k this year. That is criminal. All should write the SEC complaint division. Enough is enough.

  • Reply to

    Taking Their Time

    by digitalzorba Apr 8, 2016 8:31 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 8, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    Taking time on critical data is not a bad thing. The Koreans are seeing and analysing data first along with Ora. If they were seeing problems, you can bet the GTREE stock would be reacting. But it has stayed firm, even with their dilution from the conversion into equity from bonds and big stock run up.

  • Reply to

    The Patent news on EP1984017 was OLD NEWS….

    by donker3 Apr 7, 2016 8:59 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 8, 2016 8:12 AM Flag

    That is the fallacy that donks conpsiracy theory is built on; that somehow a patent announcement would provide a big, volume and stock price lift to rgrx. So much so, that the "cons" running this company could sell(only way they could profit from it) right before bad data. It has never been the case that a patent announcement in the past has done anything but give a one day, low volume penny or 2 gain. It is complete lunacy and very much consistent with the nonsense that donk loves to post.

    Carry on donk. Hey donk, focus on the trial.............

  • Reply to

    90% at the ASK

    by resellerguy Apr 6, 2016 4:20 PM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 7, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    Ma said at the end of the recent CC, he would talk with investment analysts to find out what they can do to raise stock price. Here's an idea for you, Chairman Ma, fire yourself. Stock will be over 20 cents in a second.

  • Reply to

    Fourth thumbs down flipper loser

    by thebasiles777 Apr 7, 2016 9:21 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 7, 2016 10:58 AM Flag

    Mia, you show up from time to time, and try to diminish other long time posters comments. And yet, you have never, ever, said anything of value yourself. If you had followed b7 in scln, you would have made much money. If you had avg in here. like many suggested, you would have lowered your costs and set yourself up for big gains. At best now, you might break even.
    You are the poster child for the loser malcontents who frequent this board. What a waste you are.

  • Reply to

    Analysts

    by bull1863 Apr 7, 2016 10:30 AM
    bocamp1 bocamp1 Apr 7, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    As of now, they do not work on dry eye(eyeg), but as they are a drug delivery system, they could in theory work with tb4. But, system is used in office so unlikely and not practical for a couple time a day treatment.

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