Have both ACI and KWK. One for coal one for NG. I expect both to keep climbing into Jan and beyond.
Looking at temperatures across the nation and dlights drawdown stats there should be another massive decline in NG inventories this week. At what point is continued demand so high that we get a supply shock price spike? Three weeks or four or five weeks? How many weeks of 4-5x normal drawdowns and disrupted production (in Texas) until the price of NG shoots to $6 or $7? If this keeps up KWK should have a really good 4th Qtr.
Maybe we'll know about HRB next Thursday. Interesting Glenn is speaking after market close. I'm looking for that big swing up, certainly well above $3.
Interesting how KWK could go from $43 in 2006 down to $3 today. Looking historically at KWK, one knows this could someday return to double digits in near future.
May 3, 2006 9:31 AM
UBS Affirms Buy and Target $57
UBS Investment Research
First Read: Quicksilver
1Q Results a Touch Light
Rating Buy 2
Global Equity Research
Price target US$57.00
Goldman Sachs; $57 target
Quicksilver Resources (IL/A): Optimization, exploration catalysts expected towards 2H 2006
February 24, 2006
As the Horseshoe Canyon coal-bed methane play moves closer to steady-state development, the key drivers of performance for Quicksilver Resources will be based on execution in the Horseshoe Canyon, successful development drilling and infrastructure optimization at the Barnett Shale and the potential for new meaningful unconventional gas opportunities in West Texas and Canada. Like many growth E&Ps, Quicksilver shares have been very weak year-to-date. As a result, shares are more attractive with 50% upside to a $57 traditional peak value. Our IL/A rating is reflective of the need for a catalyst, which may not occur until the 2H 2006 following greater clarity on Canada development weather impact and exploratory results
KWK has been working on HRB for years. Hopefully they seal the deal this month.
"2008-04-07 05:00 PT - News Release
FORT WORTH, TX -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 04/07/08
Quicksilver Resources Inc. (NYSE: KWK) today announced that it has acquired 19 licenses covering approximately 127,000 net contiguous acres in the Horn River Basin in northeast British Columbia. The company has identified more than 500 feet of gross thickness from the Upper Devonian Muskwa and Klua shale formations at depths ranging from 7,800 to 9,000 feet on the licenses."
The basin is being touted as possibly one of the 3 largest natural gas fields in the world with estimates of as much as 50 trillion cf.
Because of KWK's experience in producing from the Barnett Shale Horn River should prove profitable.
From the Casey Energy Speculator Feb 16, 2008
"The Horn River Basin attracted industry attention initially because of a regional study done in 2004 by CBM Solutions for the BC government (available here). This study shows the presence of a thick sequence of Devonian-age shale with attributes similar to those of the Barnett Shale in the Fort Worth Basin – the most productive shale basin in the world. The Horn River Basin is larger, the shales thicker, and many geologists think the shales there are even more prospective than those of the Fort Worth Basin."
Kem I'm depressed I didn't take your lead into UNG and UGAZ. I have 25 Dec UNG calls but not the homerun I was looking for. Good call. KWK will be much better.
Personally, I think some hedge fund(s) or big money traders have had KWK in a stranglehold for past two years. Someone made a lot of money shorting this from $40 to $2. And I suspect that same someone will probably make just as much driving it back to $15-$20. Regardless, us "retail investors" have little impact on long-term share price movement, especially looking out until 2021 like usshutter is doing. Fundamentals for KWK are nearly the same today at $3 as they were when Darden was talking about taking it private at $16 in May 2011. In fact, some might argue KWK is more valuable today having valued Barnett at $1.8 billion and with forthcoming HRB JV. My point being, even though the fundamentals are the same or better, today we're at $3, down from $15 in last 2.5 years, and us retail investors can't do anything except sell, dollar cost average down and buy more, or spend many a day with that sick feeling in the pit of our stomach while your hard earned investment money is cut in half. I admit I have bought KWK as high as $6, so for me $3 is still a bargain.
Okay, keep us posted on your strategy. Although, barring hitting oil, if this baby comes anywhere close to $20 I'll be long gone. Until then, let's just hope we can make it to $5 or $6 after the HRB news. Where is that news anyway? It's Dec 4. Would be nice to hear something this week instead of in 2014.
I see it. That is interesting. 5,035 volume at the April $27 strike and 2,330 volume at April $22 strike with a huge open interest of 16,072 contracts. Many there will finally be that NG spike after all.
Really- are you sure? -141 billion? That is incredible. If it's -141 billion those who own UGAZ and UNG (kem) should see a big pop again tomorrow morning. I'm all in KWK or I would buy those two today as well. Thanks for the info.
I think HRB value was probably based upon the 105bcf reserve back in May 2011. Same as today. We both know it's worth much much more.
Here we are 2.5 years later. Better assets. Sold 25% of Barnett value 1.8 billion. Looking at HRB news any day. Seriously, why is this stock at $3 today and not $6, or $10? Market disconnected. Darden should never have let KWK share price get this low and probably missed the best opportunity to take the company private earlier this year.
May 9, 2011, 1:27 p.m. EDT
Quicksilver CEO says staying public is best
By Ryan Dezember
HOUSTON (MarketWatch) -- Quicksilver Resources Inc. Chief Executive Glenn Darden said Monday that his family decided that abandoning its bid to take the oil and natural gas explorer private and continuing as a publicly traded company was the best way to boost share price.
The value of the Forth Worth, Texas, based Quicksilver's portfolio "is not being recognized in the company's stock price," Darden told investors on a conference call to discus the company's first-quarter results. "The Darden family decided that the best way to close that value gap was to continue as a public company and to be more aggressive in highlighting and developing these various assets."
The Darden family, which founded Quicksilver and controls more than 26% of its stock, abandoned a take-private bid in March. The family had proposed buying out shareholders in October. Though the family never made a firm offer, it said in February that it valued shares above $16.
Shares, which had risen 23% on the family's buy-out proposal, have dropped since the Dardens decided not to go forward.
On Monday shares rose 4.47% to $14.49 as the company reported a 23% leap in first-quarter production and said its output would grow another 8% in the current quarter. Chairman Thomas Darden said that Quicksilver is on pace to increase its full-year output 20% over 2010 levels.
Ahh, I see, my mistake. Yes, I think NG will can make $4.25 by Jan. For a minute there I thought you were getting nervous about KWK. Glad to see you're still bullish- but double digits? If you are right many will celebrate their good fortune. Hope they announce something in the next week or before Darden talks at his next conference, I think next Thursday.