date and there is a good chance of an update on the Dilworth add-on and possibly comment on an additional rig. One would think with the all the south side Jourdanton inventory and an add-on at Dilworth (described as a high multiple factor of the existing acreage) it is more probable that a rig will be added. As is AXAS is performing above expectations, the 100 and 200 day SMA's are solidly in uptrend and the RSI is around 60. Bottom line is we are looking good going into what should be the strongest quarter yet with a good chance of Q4 be guided even stronger. I'd like to see the update before I leave...but if not...I'm not leaving worried about AXAS. JMHO GLTA
The other wild card is ISIS /ISIL...seems nobody knows for certain what to call them. Apparently they are already selling Syrian oil @ $25 a barrel. If indeed they make a move on more oil fields..opponents will have to take out oil infrastructure or let them continue to increase their funding. So between Putin, ISIS, and maybe a late season hurricane.........I don't think oil will go much lower. Wells aren't cheap and you can't make decent IRR's on $10 million dollar wells with sub $90 a barrel oil. JMHO GLTA
add-on if it's been completed. Wish we had a better macro environment but the world is what the world is. I do fully expect however that sooner rather than later we'll see AXAS setting new 52 week highs. No foreign exposure, no gulf / offshore exposure, great balance sheet, and superb core areas. Patience has been and will continue to reward. 100 and 200 day SMA's still firmly in uptrend....let the trend be your friend. JMHO GLTA
I'm sticking with my original 4,5,6,7 K boepd expectation. Conservative considering how the Jourdanton wells have been doing but that still yields a 75% production increase over 1st Q. In all practicality they'll probability go out at year end with close to a 100% gain....but 75% will do just fine. The production is great but we need to see it translate into bottom line earnings which is ultimately what the "street " pays a premium for. Speculation is great but earnings results are valued the most. JMHO GLTA
From Q2 2012 CC
I'm just an investor. I've got a series of questions. With all due respect to you and your decision-making process regarding Mr. King, you're the new CFO, I know Davidson College is an excellent academic institution where he went to school. He's got a degree, it says here, in economics. But he doesn't appear to have an accounting background. How does his background as a chartered financial analyst with approximately 10 years experience qualify him to be the Abraxas CFO?
Robert L. G. Watson - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
I think Jeff is very qualified. He's very knowledgeable. He's very sharp. He's been in the small cap E&P business for a long time. We're structured a little bit differently, and I think it's the wave of the future. Accountants tend to look backwards. Financial people tend to look forwards. And it's somewhat rare for an accountant to be a successful CFO. So we have a very strong Chief Accounting Officer. He reports direct to me. The CFO is just going to be a capital markets type guy, and that's what Jeff's been doing for 10 years. And that's plenty of experience for what I was looking for.
CC transcript available at SA.
I just looked at the stats...no DD behind my comments. I'm not pro or con on MHR just don't favor the stat's they show.
There was a conference call way back when he was selected as CFO...some individual investor really drug Bob Watson over the coals regarding whether King was qualified to be a CFO. King knew what the "street" looks for in regards to a balance sheet and debt load. I think he has provided superb guidance on getting the company a healthy balance sheet and Bob and gang are executing on the drill bit and acquisition front. Is anything ever guaranteed....no.....but I certainly like the looks of things. JMHO GLTA
I would think they would struggle. Their margins are pretty poor under current pricing, they are low on cash and high on debt but yet at 7 times book value. Not one I'd be comfortable holding. JMHO GLTA
generally the Eagle Ford doesn't see the harsh conditions the Bakken sees..so one should expect a much better production level this year with all the Joudanton wells. JMHO GLTA
$10 million dollar wells ....is there oil yes but it's an expensive process to get it. If oil prices fall much lower you'll see rigs get stacked like crazy. Lest everyone forget that even with $100 WTI and around $4 natgas many E&P's are already struggling with debt loads and low earnings. Further erosion in pricing will just strengthen AXAS's position as being a healthy E&P and it'll knock out many borderline players. It's a market and it's cyclic....I maintain AXAS is well positioned....a great balance sheet clean-up...so even if things were to get tougher they have wisely put themselves in much better position versus two years ago. But back to the initial point...if prices fall much lower...you'll see production fall off in fairly quick order. It's cause and effect. JMHO GLTA
and I'd be jumping up and down over what ? Everyone's excited because some SA author says AXAS is worth more than current valuation ? Duh..
Kuddo's to BK for for doing the deal.....maybe when folks in DC realize how capitalism works...they'll quit over taxing and over -regulating....but then again they would lose their massive bureaucracies and they dare not let that happen. Now that's something I'll jump up and down about. As for AXAS...ain't never been nothing but "money in the bank" since I bought in...and expect it to remain so. JMHO GLTA
-Guidance was reaffirmed....July was pegged at 6600 boepd, exit rate at year end is guided to 8,000 boepd.
- Significant increases in 2014 in proved reserves with that amount to increase with S. Jourdanton.
- Significant increase in well inventory and the inventory consists of highly predictable results and good IRR wells.
- An additional bolt -on to Dilworth soon to be announced and it was confirmed the largest portion of the acquisition has already been completed.
- Last high LOE cost (Duvernay) to be divested).
- Approximately 80% hedged to protect IRR and lenders....so oil price fears are unfounded.
- Anticipated additional rig but not yet BOD approved...I'd say 100% odds of being a done deal.
- The 100 day and 200 day SMA...is still in uptrend and I fully expect they'll stay in uptrend.
Now for anyone who wants to say AXAS is stagnant...predictable or isn't in a growth / turn-around..then look at the two year chart...if you are still of that opinion...then you are just dumber than dirt. I maintain that AXAS is just beginning to their stride and cash flow is about to grow significantly. So my wager is still in place and will remain so. JMHO GLTA
not Hanukkah ? Phony poser......but I'd welcome $2.80...like buying steaks...especially when on sale.
Tip #1....Dollar General isn't the best place to buy "crystal balls". Despite your belief...all those cars and trucks, and trains and planes are gonna keep running and good ol' oil is gonna stay a top commodity for decades o come. If you can't handle cycles in the energy sector...you should find safer play grounds. Big boys play here. JMHO GLTA
so they could short more shares at higher levels. I on the other hand believe WPRT is a bargain at these levels and I certainly could care less about any shorts monetary future. The smart shorts took positions when WPRT was above $30 and in a market creation and spend phase. So the shorts now trash talking are the bottom of the barrel Johnny come lately's. You short the the over priced early risers...you buy the undervalued growth. As stated...I couldn't give a rats behind how shorts come out.......I care about about one investor..ME.
I bought F under $2, BAC under $5, FB under $19, and these clowns don't think I heard the same old rhetoric on those investments ? I think WPRT's a great risk versus reward.......so I'm putting capital at risk and expecting reward. If shorty really believes his thesis...then load the boat. If WPRT were to fall further that just gives me a lower cost basis entry on something I like.....if shorty makes some chump change on it...doesn't change my thesis or eventual gains in the least. JMHO GLTA
Well I don't do OTC's so PTORF anf CAZFF are stocks that's I wouldn't be commenting on. It's not to say you can't make money on OTC"s...I just prefer sticking with the 1,000's of stocks on the big boards. MHR looks like it's had a decent pullback so on a charting perspective it's discounted ..but I did no DD . AXAS of course I like..I own and expect to own for a while yet. Almost any stock can be a winner or a loser....it's more about when you position on a stock that determines whether you win or lose. Typically it will serve you best to have a list of companies you like...watch for a macro sell-off and then start buying in increments...you may see red for a while...but generally in short order you'll see a rebound and you'll be in good shape with a low cost basis. You can find a fantastic company but if you buy at the wrong time....profit will elude you. JMHO GLTU
so if it's a good increase in inventory.it should come across positive. So we'll have more Dilworth wells and we soon begin on Joudanton south...longer laterals and more inventory to prove. So what's not to like ? JMHO GLTA
or rally the market in general. However in general, good solid performance generally holds up even in adverse market conditions........so this is now about the 4th qtr of repeated over-performance on the AXAS turn-around story and I still see no reason that it doesn't only continue but fully expect further acceleration based on the most recent guidance on both production, acquisitions @ Dilworth and planned divestiture of Duvernay. For me it's just a case of loving the micro story more than fearing the macro environment. So we maintain the status quo.......holding pat. JMHO GLTA