I'd suggest you go to seekingalpha..a select AXAS.transcripts... and read for yourself the factual information regarding debt and balance sheet strategy. I think you'll find the facts will remedy any debt concerns. But seriously...do a little DD and compare their balance sheet to most E&P's...then decide where your entry point should be. JMHO. GLTA
looks like you need to subscribe to a better weather and natgas forecast service. WRES sells into the CIG ( Colorado Interstate Pipeline )....better than half their production is not hedged and CIG mailine and CIG south have been @ +4.30 - $6 for the past two weeks plus an additional "Arctic Vortex" is reforming. But even better is the western drought conditions which have snow pack near nil with predictions western hyro-electric will fall well below historic output which is further supporting western natgas markets.
from $4.30's up to $6 for the past two weeks. WRES owns the 60 miles of pipeline and midstream from the CBM fields that sale into the CIG...hence they don't get wellhead pricing..they get premium pricing on their CBM gas as stated in the prior CC transcripts. AS of Jan 1 2014 their hedged gas increased from 3.39 to 3.79 on 7000 deca therms and in May an additional 2,000 deca therms hedge kicks in at 4.18. All remaining production per the company is unhedged....in comparison last years realized price was around $3.40.
They openly admitted they missed out on two "multi- hundred million acquistions" both of which would not have required equity sales. Both the new additions Keeler in particular have M&A background. AS for a stock being a pig.....I'd say the balance sheet already has all the glam and glitter an E&P needs....no need to add lipstick to a balance sheet with natural beauty. But if +23% growth and profit margins, 1 times book and 1/2 industry PE norm is a pig.....then I'm a pork lover. JMHO GLTA
I added enough at 3.01 to clean up my lapse in discipline when I added an additional 5k position around 3.54....so I'm a happy camper. it's one thing to know you made a mistake....it was a long wait to get the eraser to remove the mistake....but it came around...and I'm back to where I want to be. GLTA
I think well names would be more appropriate if name the Bog 1H, the Pocilujko #2, and Bog 3 H and Bog 4 H...of course that;s just me unbiased and objective opinion. LOL...that;s for the added color on the locations...but if they do name a well after you...I'll personally serve as lead plaintiff in a shareholder lawsuit...the basis being "public outrage". JMHO GLTA
Filloon just put out an article on Bakken companies..never mentioned AXAS ....but the article is dated 1/17 and mostly discussed the various fracing and completion techniques the various players are using...mostly the amounts of propants and water volumes to include slickwater results with IP comparisons. I've kind of been surprised he hasn't had any follow-up on AXAS especially will Lilly west results and the balance sheet improvement per the Wycross sale. But even the SA's have there own agenda's....so I never put much valuation on what they have to say but sometimes they do open some DD doors. GLTA
@ 20% of normal average...with water rationing already beginning. Largest impact comes via the acrefeet of water flows needed for hydro-electric is far below norms.....shortfalls in hydro-electric generation = increased natgas generation requirements. Adding in to western natgas price supports are the already below normal gas in storage levels. CGI mainline and CIG south pricing was at $4.50 today. Not applauding the woes of the northwest but pointing out the factual support for western natgas pricing support for 2014. Numerous articles available in regard to the drought and hydro-level forecast. Also expect vegetarians are gonna be paying a little more to dine as water restrictions are being given priority to groves, oranges, apples, nut trees versus row crops....so look for the produce shelf prices to see impact soon....unless there's lots of rain really...really soon. just FYI
the average investors wallet with the greatest of ease.....all thanks to the SEC.....no guns or masks required. Market wide = $$$$Billions being made. JMHO GLTA.....and my thanks to their work last week for the 3.01 fill....if you can't beat them...join them.
I basically lump all the "cronies" into an "MM" definition.....whether it's actually the firm or firms that "make a market' in a stock...a trader at a brokerage firm or programs trade that use algorithms. I consider them all "mafia" types...does it matter who the "Don" is or the capo's or made men....sleaze is sleaze is sleaze. The SEC is fully aware of and condones share price manipulation. Can you as an individual put in a bid at example...$3.4639 ? I'll venture you can't...you can probably bid $3.46 or $3.47.
Just the ability to front run individual investors bids is a huge advantage to firms. I could go on forever on how "WallStreet" is the puppet master of DC and the SEC so I'll end my rant. What they can't stop however is an individual who invests with discipline and does due diligence...hopefully in sectors they are knowledgeable in. The Street can pick the pockets of the investor who thinks they can out trade them. JMHO..GLTA
and presentations...mostly on what should be "movers" on the stock one way or the other.
- Duvernay...Hard to really figure this one out....2nd qtr CC Bob indicated news would probably occur in Q4, and in 3rd Qtr...he just says it's getting close. Wycross caught me by surprise....so Bob is a little caging or poker faced in regard to saying much ahead of a done deal.IMHO
- Blues Eyes..again Bob's kind of a puzzler....we know it's producing.."encouraging results" and additionally because of Blue Eyes initial results they've permitted for Snake Eyes.....which is a move contrary to what was discussed regarding Atascosa County. Prior to Blues Eyes, Bob had said they would focus on McCullen County and were more excited about some add-on where they could replicate the Wycross results. They still like McMullen and he expects the two 9,000 ft laterals at the Cave Prospect to be top tier performance....So what's the point ? I'm thinking Blues Eyes might be better than expected.
- 4th qtr numbers ? Maybe "Poc" can shed some light. I know there was "some" shut-in on Lilly east while Lilly west was being frac'ed but it didn't sound like it was substantial. I know on the overall the initial IP's of the Lilly west exceeded the Wycross production sold....but how they'll account on the numbers overall...is a guessing game with any E&P when there's a divestiture.
- The Jore Federal's should provide a good boost on production...and as best I can tell once they let their natgas hedges run off they weren't going to hedge any more. On oil they were around 80-85% with a goal of backing that down to 70%.
I'm still very encouraged by what AXAS has the potential to produce..regarding everything from the Brooks Draw to their Permian assets and natgas. The balance sheet should definitely look better...and if they can find oil in Atascosa and McMullen counties at 100% working interest like they were hitting in Wyrcross at 25%....could be game on for 2014. JMHO GLTA
As an afterthought to reading your post...where you say "I own a lot of AXAS "...just be very careful if you are in the learning curve of investing. This isn't in regard to AXAS but rather in regard to any stock. Yes by owning a "lot" you can really profit but you can also lose a lot. For instance a novice mistake is to build a big position but put a standing "stop loss" at a level they think they could handle. A "stop loss" automatically becomes a market order if and when the price falls to your order...Meaning just a "market glitch" ..."flash crash" can sell all your shares in a heartbeat at a substantial loss and far below your "stop loss" price. I never use stop losses, everybody develops their own strategy via generally hard learned lessons...I generally invest to a level on any stock...where the questioned asked by myself is...can I afford total loss on what I've invested...if the answer is yes...then I'm using discipline...otherwise it's playing Russian Roulette and there are few long term winners in that game. It's far better when in learning mode to make a little $$$$ than to lose a lot. I wish you the best of investing success...but I'd urge caution unless you have unlimited wealth. JMHO GLTA
Thanks for the info poc and your time....enjoy that fake prune juice....cherry flavored no less. :) GLTA
I just look @ the balance sheet, the margins, book valuation and PE versus industry sector. Taken into consideration the current commodity prices and WRES's change in hedge % and valuations........it's bewildering to me it's pps is as low as it is. In my opinion it's just suffering from lack of analyst coverage and it's completely off the radar for retail investors. I've taken a decent size position....I just can't see how it's not going to post even stronger revenues through 2014. As to when and where to buy it......that's an individual call. JMHO GLTA
Taking a very conservative pricing approach using existing natgas production and assuming no production increase. Just using the swaps of 9000 and using a discount to the 12 month forward strip price of Henry Hub ..I come up with a minimal increase of 27% in natgas revenues in 2014 versus 2013. Taking into consideration 25 new gas wells came on line in the last qtr and 48 more will be added in 2014 and WRES sells it's natgas into the CIG which runs at higher prices than Henry Hub.....27% natgas revenue increase is sandbagging. That 's assuming getting lower than 12 month Henry Hub strip for the unhedged natgas and also assuming no production increase from nearly 75 wells added...and CBM well type curves show substantial increase in production rates for the first year as opposed to typical type curves which have steep decline rates. JMHO GLTA
are in the red. One day the talking heads are bullish on Europe and China and the next day it's doom and gloom. If they can drag anything low enough to offer up a good opportunity to lower a cost basis or start a new position on something I want...then I'll take advantage....otherwise it's just seeing all the yo-yo's in the store working in unison. JMHO GLTA
agree...with relatively new CEO...growth requires a team that "WANTS" growth and has the experience to pursue same .....no guarantee of a win...but with the present assets, balance sheet...throw in some inspired players and we could see some points get scored. I'd welcome a decent pps dip to add position if it gets offered up. Game on for 2014 as far as I'm concerned.
The daily spot prices are interesting...but it's the rising 12 month strip prices that really lend support to the valuation of the natgas assets. When you can lock in forward price for production via hedges or swaps is when basically you can lock in a minimum ROR or IRR. The twelve month strip is getting stronger and stronger whether AXAS utilizes the upside to capture the valuation through operated production or utilizes the valuation added to the assets in regard to selling them...as they are non-core....regardless the " Abraxas Hidden Natgas Assets" are rapidly increasing from being a "Hidden Asset" to a " do we put this to use" or "sell it while the getting's good". I don't personally don't care which direction they take...but the natgas inventory plunge IS NOT GOING TO VANISH overnight and it may very well strengthen further as predictions are now looking very strong for less than 2 trillion cubic feet before withdrawal season ends. I'm positioned and did position with "crossed fingers" for a real winter...and I'll be dog gone if this ain't better than my wildest expectations. I'm loving what I see.....absolutely loving it. JMHO..GLTA