rather small short position on AXAS and it's smaller each period.....clean balance sheets have a tendency to ward off shorts. AXAS is no guarantee by all means but their balance sheet is pretty clean versus most sub $5 E&P's and they do have the drill bit working in the right direction. If they do bring a deal to fruition on Durvenay acreage and if they hit some good IP's on the 100% working interest wells it could certainly make a substantial run up. It's not a big name stock but it has finally got on the radar....the potential is there....now it just matters whether the God's of Good Fortune come to roost. JMHO..GLTA
No I sold enough shares to matter....and I mulled over selling or adding additional shares. There's no doubt that existing production will be impacted by the weather...but that doesn't mean some E&P's won't beat prior numbers. There is also something bizzarre going on with the insiders buying as they are. As I've stated prior....it 's almost like they came out with muddy production numbers and no warning on the impairment to drive the pps down....the only thing that counters that is why be buying in the $5's when you are fixing to trash it to the $3's. HK's a puzzler....but I did make green....and I very well might make green again depending on what transpires. HK could announce something that jumps the price significantly.....or not. But like it or not the present winter storm is going to hurt some revenues on some E&P's and service companies from the Bakken to the Permian and you can take that to the bank. JMHO.GLTA
There's several factors, they have to book the $40 million + charges for the gas plant accrued this earning period. Wells haven't been stellar recently and bottom line earnings estimate for both this qtr and next year are weak. I sold when they changed their strategy once again. When they announced they were going into Kansas and would start using Cap-x to expand infrastructure....again. Seriously....why in the world when you have limited cap-x would you use it to open up a new core area ? If the IRR on the present core area and infrastructure is as good as has been reported then all cap-x should be spent drilling out the ample locations within the existing core which already has infrastructure. If they had didn't have forward debt concerns and they had plenty of cap-x to chase two core areas it would be a positive announcement....but the logic of the Kansas move is lost on me for SD being in the financial position it is in. There's potential in SD....but strategy changes without better justification = cash out until I find out the facts. I made a decent profit for the time held as I had a cost basis of $5.14. But I'm back to being a watch and wait....they could be and should be successful...but I'm lost on why they aren't putting all cap-x at drilling out the present infrastructure core....which has ample locations. JMHO GLTA
Cleon or Dion...naming winter storms is new to me....we used to just call them the Arctic Express.
wells shut in for extended period in Colorado due to the floods a while back. I had got back into HK but sold at a small profit about an hour ago...at $4.03. There's still at least a week of miserable cold and bad road conditions still to come across most of the major shale plays...so there is going to be production impact. I'd suggest cation as well on the service providers per completion and water haulers....when the roads are bad so are revenues and everyday lost in a 90 day window adds up....or rather subtracts from revenues. Last winter was brutal on the service and completion sector and this one is looking to repeat. JMHO GLTA
until you starve out the smaller guys..then own the markets and raise your prices. Just too much risk for me with the current valuations. I'll watch...but I'll wait.
moves for a $1,000....it's just part of life on sub $5 stocks. It can be annoying and frustrating but it is what it is. I still maintain that when the fundamentals are solid...a stock is gonna climb regardless of day traders and program trades and shorts. They may impede the rate of climb they they aren't going to stop it. JHMO GLTA
I think it's fairly safe to expect the same results on Lillibridge West as was achieved on the East. The location was close enough that they walked the rig from the east pad to the west location. They were also targeting the wells the same two wells in each of the two plays. With the east being the first, one could expect a reasonable amount of improvement based on experience gained ..maybe 10%....but just equal results on the west will add +1,000 BOEPD with AXAS 34% working interest and that's a good number. Blues Eyes results are more intriguing as it's a 100% working interest so good results there would be really sweet. JMHO GLTA
I would imagine the concern is over the trade -off between higher prices and production interruptions because of the winter storm. It's pretty healthy storm and it's pretty much covering the major shale plays. To the best of my knowledge AXAS has most production feeding into pipelines. The guys that will suffer shut ins are those who are having to run trucks in regions not covered by pipeline infrastructure. Same will hold true for delays on facking work or any other operations requiring trucking. AXAS was pretty inventive on the last storm and even though the roads were closed the crew walked the rig to Lillibridge West on a private road. I think the bigger E&P's actually face greater risk just on the numbers....more wells, more trucks, more rigs = greater percentage of problems. We'll see what happens....but this should work to everyones advantage in the longer run as it should help further decline on domestic oil inventory and a big draw down this week on natgas insures a even larger drawn down next week. JMHO.GLTA
Meant WRES has some risk...but I do own AXAS as well...who has much more risk in regard to the storm.
the western gas markets should see premium pricing and with controlling the midstream on their own gas WRES should benefit. Oil prices are strong and with production safely away in warm California that should be free from risk. There is weather risk on the CBM but there is risk to the whole region..the last storm had Andarko having 200+ wells shut in for an extended period. As large as the storm is and extended duration should impact inventories on domestic oil and natgas even further over the next two weeks and bolster prices. E&P's who can maintain well production will benefit. Axas has some risk towards natgas...but the oil production should be safe and in the bag..if they also maintain natgas..then it should be a better than expected quarter. JMHO GLTA
Welcome to the world of currency valuation Bitcoin..what goes up can go down. JMHO
These numbers were in effect prior to the last earnings which beat consensus. The 2013 annual was targeted for 0.21 and they have already done 0.15 with 0.08 consensus for this qtr. If they just do 0.08 that's 0.23 or 0.02 better than annual consensus or a 10% beat. Add to the fact they have dramatically cleaned up the balance sheet and still improving it further...DISCOUNTING THE DURVENAY POTENTIAL entirely. You can look all day long and you'll be hard pressed to find E&P's of any size who are growing production, reducing debt, posting positive earnings and have multiple upside candidates ( Durvenay, Lillibridge West, Blue Eyes ) near term. I'm very content with AXAS and I fully believe that $6.50 pps is much more likely than $3 pps if AXAS stays the present course. There are never guarantees on future performance on any stock but judging by the present facts and the numbers on AXAS....the present odds are further upside. JMHO..GLTA
this present yo-yo pricing is just typical of the present day market. Algorithms triggered by moves in general market trend, oil prices, VIX, open interest...you never know what might trigger buying or selling. I prefer to ignore the daily and weekly yo-yo moves and instead trust the overall price trend when it's backed up by fundamentals in the balance sheet. As is, AXAS has a great chart, great balance sheet and great forecast. Very good analyst coverage with bullish outlooks = $$$ down the road. Folks can make some cash trading the little ups and downs but that can be as risky as rewarding depending on ones skill level. The big boys puters can clean your clock in the short term but in general if you're on a solid stock the trend will be your friend. Oil prices are still solid and natgas is nearing highs with what appears to be a colder than expected winter = good revenues for good E&P's. Whether up or down the real directional moves on AXAS will occur when there is company specific news and despite all the ups and downs....there has been no such occurrence yet....just day traders and programs making yo-yo moves for $$$$. JMHO GLTA
You could look -up Ethel...she usually hangs out around 4th and Grand, she's a little hunched back and walks with a pronounced limp. If you can handle serious sinus flows and can afford to bring her a can of gold or silver spray paint (her favorites)...she'll show you a good time and she can keep a secret...matter of fact she can't even remember her name. She's also quite a skilled conversationlist however it's totally incoherent......I think you'd have a memorable time to say the least.
Herd's asleep at the wheel on oil & natgas...the market is red so they become like deer caught in headlights. Regardless of how fickle the herd gets ....oil has recovered firmly and natgas is setting up for a very good run -up.
Keep in mind however that there is some very harsh weather hitting the major shale plays from the Upper Bakken all the way down to the Eagleford and Permian....so there will be some production impact as operations and access gets impacted. Even still, short term concerns can make for longer term opportunity and profits. It's all good and the Lillibridge West should all be on the pipeline by now...so higher prices are very welcome. JMHO GLTA.
I would think a better price would come through someone wanting in the play versus someone already with a position....but that's just my thinking. GLTA
that have occurred post AXAS acquiring same. There have been successfully commercial wells drilled adjacent to AXAS's leasehold ( see presentation for photo's and location). How much valuation it represents and how that valuation comes to the table is totally in the hands of AXAS and interested parties. What we know is that AXAS has stated they have no plans to use out of pocket money in drilling Durvenay....so one would either suspect a farm out where someone else drills the leasehold and AXAS gets a working interest of production or an outright sale. Personally I'd prefer an outright sale unless they can find a player large enough that has the resources to really develop the lease. But regardless of how it plays out, the Durvenay acreage should be significantly worth more than AXAS acquired it for and that represents unbooked valuation and eventually that will find it's way to the balance sheet. If sold it becomes cash for debt reduction or it funds cap-x / operations. If a farm out occurs each time a well is successfully completed it increases the "proved" reserves of the pool plus whatever cash flow from the working interest adds to revenues. Everyone can speculate on what the valuation of Durvenay represents...I'm satisfied just knowing Durvenay represents valuation and from all indications per the company it sounds like something is getting close for us finding out what the valuation is....it's sort of like Christmas....the package is under the tree....and we'll get to see what's inside soon.....but have fun speculating. JMHO..GLTA
we trust you can guide a drill bit better than a company ? I hate to say it but I guess we're lucky you aren't fracking clouds and getting water. I'll probably still add some shares.....but I'll be thanking Floyd and Floyd alone for the discount....JMHO GLTA