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bogwa1406 2723 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 14 hours ago Flag

    The talking heads change from day to day...from 20% correction to Dow 18,000. With Putin playing games....and it will probably escalate....I think the energy sector is fairly safe. I'm not much on offering strategic advice as I kind of differ from the vast majority of investors. I only buy what I consider to be undervalued stocks...I build my position on falling valuation...and I never buy into rising valuation...even on stocks I love and even if I expect them to climb further. I just buy stocks I like...and since I never know when planes will hit towers, or a massive earthquake may hit...or some foreign country defaults......I always keep plenty of cash to buy when the babies get thrown out with the bath water. I only buy long, I never use margin, I never use stop limit orders....so my worse case scenario is a market crash just offers me a chance to buy more of what I like cheaper....I seldom will go below 1/3 cash position.....and I never position myself where someone else can dictate my actions.
    I buy in very disciplined...( I never catch the lows ) once I get the % gain I desire, I sell just like I bought..disciplined ( I never can call the highs). It's all about just learning what your own risk tolerance is...recognizing your failures and your successes....and of course mold your actions to replicate the success traits...and trash what caused your failures. For most folks it's called the school of hard knocks...some graduate....some get expelled. I doubt I said anything that helped you..probably thickened the fog..huh ...LOL...JMHO GLTA.......I do wish you well...I admire anyone who takes charge of their own money and destiny.

  • your poor fella's better stay away from the train tracks...because if you are as deaf and blind as it appears...you're apt to get run over. Granted the SA article doesn't really say much of what we all already new, but there's something magical that occurs when stuff gets put into print that gets folks feeling greedy. Now if ol' Bob were to release the Snake Eye's IP and say something favorable regarding Spanish Eye's....I might have to sit on the floor tomorrow so I don't fall out of my rocking chair laughing and hurt myself. $6 to $8 and maybe more they say...mmmmmm...mmmmmm...good. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    bought a bunch

    by mldtextbook Mar 5, 2014 7:39 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 18 hours ago Flag

    same here....just starting to position...I always buy pretty disciplined....to hard to catch the lows...I just buy on the way down after a good sell-off...once it turns and catches me...I never add position once it gets ahead of me...= catching maximum % of gain on capital....so the further it falls the larger position I'll build....patience and discipline....has worked for decades for me. GLTA

  • a Snake's IP.( which we know is flowing to sales at encouraging rates )...maybe a mention of putting it on sub-pump if not already done initially as it sure paid out quickly on Blue Eyes. It's been right at 30 days since Snake Eyes was frac'ed and since Spanish Eye's was being frac'ed by late March...one could anticipate another " the well was frac'ed and is flowing to sales at encouraging rates". So with earnings still + two weeks away....the time window is there for a 30 day IP on Snake Eye's and an initial indication on Spanish Eye's.....plus any other tidbit that might get tossed in. Just sharing a little horse sense/ experience...but it's free observation...with a money back guarantee if I'm wrong. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    LAST WEEKS NEWS

    by frankenstocken Apr 11, 2014 4:13 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 22 hours ago Flag

    frankenstocken...post all your heart desires..I do. It's called freedom of speech and one should use it before we lose it Most complainers waste more effort griping than it takes to "click" the ignore feature. If they don't like what you say they have an option..but they preference griping....so #$%@ 'em...JMHO GLTA

  • package. Of course that's only if you are dumber than dirt. Whatever happens will happen...but I'd be more apt to expect some IP's and or divestiture news to pop ahead of the vote. But the brain child's think we'll see a massive pull back ( $2 ).....right before management hopes shareholders will vote for bigger bonuses....this will be interesting. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    GDP vs. AXAS

    by nyc_opinion Apr 14, 2014 1:09 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 14, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Nope...I sold at a very nice % gain for time held. I don't trust ol" Floyd Wilson any further than I could throw him. The TMS could be a winner....but the Utica was spouted as a winner by Floyd...until all of a sudden it wasn't...and instead it went dead in it's tracks and a massive impairment charge. He's cut from the same cloth as Tom Ward and Aubrey McClendon....fiduciary responsibility to shareholders takes a back seat. Would I take a position again on HK....if it gets hammered again...and depending on the facts. Today's run -up is purely on GDP's results and HK hasn't proved they can do squat yet in the TMS...so I took the money and ran. If Bob Watson starts back pedaling or over promising...I'll run not walk from AXAS....as long as a CEO stays on tract...I'm comfortable...but I inherently distrust
    CEO's as I have sat in too many board rooms and golfed with too many to be anything but distrustful. I would not nor could not advise you to stay the course or not....I just do what my experience tells me to do...my portfolio keeps growing...so I'm either good...or lucky...but whichever it is works fine for me. Here's wishing you the best in whatever you do... sincerely...JMHO GLTA

  • on a Wednesday stated Snakes Eye's was being frac'ed later that week.....what's today ? The 14th of April which means a 30 day IP could pop at anytime on Snake Eyes which Bob has already said was "flowing to sales at encouraging rates"..and further stated in the presentation that it mirrored Blue Eyes....in addition to that the Spanish Eyes was to be frac'ed by the end of March...so we are apt to get an update in regard to that well also. So is there motivated interest to #$%$ folks..yes...... I think I'll just hold tight....and let's see what we see.
    JMHO GLTA

  • (bullish)....Fidelity uses Starmine Relative Accuracy which rates firms by how accurate they are. The two highest ranked firms with ratings of 74 and 73...have outperform and buy ratings respectively..several firms with ratings around 50 have neutral and the worst rated firms with ratings of 31 and 23 have sells. So if odds matter in a casino...(the market).....I think having the odds makers with the highest winning percentage giving AXAS the thumbs up outweighs the "hardly ever right gang" who has sells on AXAS. I think the results of the company, the stats, and the strengthening sentiment will rule the day. Anyone can fact check the above at Fidelity's stock research center. FYI...GLTA

  • Reply to

    GDP vs. AXAS

    by nyc_opinion Apr 14, 2014 1:09 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 14, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Yeah, folks getting a little nutty on GDP...and also on HK since they have TMS acreage but have yet to drill a well...at least GDP has hit some wells....but their stats still stink....and just because GDP hit some good wells they've also had some bad results. Another example is FST...who has been drilling Eagle Ford but not getting the needed results so refocusing to their more successful core of Ark/La/Tex....and that stock got hammered. You can find all kinds of E&P's who have higher production than AXAS but still have bottom line numbers that stink. I prefer to see AXAS just stay the course...they are hitting great wells, if the ROR is there, they'll not only increase cash flow but they'll grow valuation through proving the reserves.....the pps valuation will follow. There's E&P's out there..numerous E&P's, who have 5 times the production of AXAS and they can't post a positive earnings because they've taken on high debt load...and they drill for the sake of drilling. That's why I maintain that if and when the herd really takes a liking to AXAS....it can be valued...or rather overvalued much more than folks realize. It may also just slowly have to earn it's wings. I held WRES for sometime ..and then boom...all of a sudden it busted loose to the upside with basically no big catalyst.....so you just never know. JMHO GLTA

  • so I did. Very pleased with performance.....opening statement by Bob is very good...and besides myself I think longs are going to be amply rewarded. Gotta have patience...and understand the strategy...but if you aren't in dire need of riding a rocket....this should be a steady transportation mode to higher valuation. JMHO GLTA

  • In earlier statements Bob referenced they were considering a farm out on Duvernay...but those comments occurred prior to the Jourdanton successes. His last comments in the CC were that the divestitures were not done..regarding the Permian and Canadian assets...we just saw a Permian sale and the presentation now just shows Canada as "monetize assets". No idea as to when but I'd bank Duvernay is close to being sold.
    As for additional rigs...it's hard to imagine they laid out a scenario for production with additional rigs if they were just having idle thoughts. Actually all three production scenarios look good...of course adding rigs adds cost but increases cash flow and production...I'll leave it to them to decide when or if they add but I suspect we'll see additional rigs. If the down spacing in the Bakken works out...we could see a sale there at a price "beneficial" to shareholders..to which Bob stated he would consider....that would free a rig to come south. As for hedging...AXAS is a small E&P...and they can't afford risk exposure to not be hedged at a large enough % to protect the company...and hence the shareholders...and any commodity price can turn on a dime...so I'm OK with hedges. I trust as production exceeds hedged volumes they'll upgrade as available. I'm certain a lot will depend on how the Eagle Ford's, both North and South sides keep trending and how the down spacing proves out in the Bakken's will have them with open options. So far they have made very good and prudent moves both financially and operationally.....sometimes when a team is winning...you gotta forget about being a Sunday afternoon quarterback....and just cheer and be happy. GO TEAM AXAS ! JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 14, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    my misunderstanding..my apologies...and glad to hear you don't own it...when I saw that $73 per boe versus $83....ewwww. I'll watch it anyway to see if that valuation they will book overshadows that drop in realized price..I'd be afriad to be on that one. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 14, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    I'd be afraid of the realized BOE price drop. They're showing a roughly 27% increase in boepd but with the realized boe price dropping to $73 in 4Q from $83....when you figure in all the fixed cost in a BOE..such as LOE, G&A...etc....taking a $10 hit on realized price off the top becomes a big percentage drop. Glad you mentioned it...I'll watch it and wish you well if your long...but that $10 drop on realized boe would have me puckered up. Looks like there might be some accounting benefits that could help out...so here's wishing it falls in your favor. JMHO GLTA

  • on both oil and natgas....even though we couldn't export squat volume wise on natgas even if we needed to and we can't export unrefined crude...but that could be changed quickly..but most likely won't occur. So the wind power and solar panel crowd should have a wide open Euro-market with the way natgas prices are being raised by IMF and Putin.

  • Reply to

    Ignore all the Chineses More-ons. BUY AXAS!

    by hatchet61 Apr 13, 2014 9:03 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 14, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    They almost make one think that "freedom of speech" should be proportional to one's IQ....which would make them mutes. A lot of the effort is just meaningless dribble and posts to push anything meaningful off the current board. By ignoring them as soon as they pop-up you can eventually get to a board where you just see the views of those you wish to converse with or share information. It's just a daily chore to sweep the rats and roaches out of the way so you can converse with humans. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 13, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Well, there are idiots..such as those who show member since 4/11/14...,4/12/14...those are genuine idiots. then there are idiots who would hold short on a sub $2 stock that has an enterprise valuation 4 times the market cap. Then there's the idiot who buy's high but doesn't have the sense to buy low.
    I may be an idiot...but I make really good money off the other idiots....so which idiot are you ? Long and too dumb to lower your cost basis, a short trying to squeeze a dry lemon...or maybe just Mother Mary trying to save the world ? "Only the traders are left"...that's a pretty profound if not idiotic statement if there ever was one. JMHO

  • name "highlighted" in blue....if the "member since" date is relatively new... such as 4/12/14...you have a vermin in your sights. Click on the flag..click ignore....bulls-eye....Vermin gone...no noise..no fuss..no muss. They tend to be birthed in rather large litters...so you'll easily get in all the "snuff-out" experience you heart desires. Don't worry...you'll never eliminate the sub-species...even though they are dumber than dirt they are unfortunately just as plentiful...Happy Hunting...and remember...share the sport ! JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    How many well do they have coming on line?

    by mdpetrosky Apr 12, 2014 8:57 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 12, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    They recently acquired 379 dry and abandoned water wells varying in depths of 1,500 feet to as much as 4,100 feet. They will remove the water wells and cut them into 3 foot sections and they'll be sold as pre-dug fence post holes through a national sales distribution agreement with Home Depot and Lowes. UR welcome. GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 12, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Poc...I told Chimakot that WRES was a fantastic buy under $3 and I was loading the boat and his response was " it's a dead stock, that will go nowhere". I loaded the boat and sold within 3 months with my lowest sell at $4.82....made well over 50% on a stock that had a pristine balance sheet but was just off the radar of the market. Chim just looks for rocket ships....lacks patience. a typical modern day investor...gotta have instant gains, no DD, just buy and hope for $$$$ tomorrow. Chim actually carries the saddle more than any horse has....it's a perverse "cowboy way"...I guess. Regardless..I wish him/her well...but odds are against hope and wishes....I'll stick with DD, patience, and discipline...it may not be the fastest string of horses...but they serve me well in getting to my destination. JMHO GLTA

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