Being that SD production is hedged to protect cash flow...what pray tell does falling oil and natgas have to do with the price of tea in china ? Here's a tip for you...major oil companies actually have declining production....at least two countries considered oil global suppliers have falling oil production....Boone Pickens says to add at least $10 a barrel to current Brent crude prices ( at $109 when stated ) for next year. I hope you're a youngster as hell is apt to freeze over before you see $5.50. JMHO..GLTA
yeah it's rough on me being stuck with a +25% gain.....woe is me ..woe is me! Even if your cohorts vision of SD falling to $5.50 were to come true....I'd still be stuck with a nice gain....LOL. For some silly reason my gut instinct says that TPG putting on a large option for +$6.00 a share and Leon Cooperman assessing SD at $10 current fair valuation....is trumping the naysayers........yeahhhhhhhhhh...I think I'll just sit pat where I'm at and suffer the burden I carry...LOL.....GLTA
had not connected the Kibler and Allam wells. HK will have excellent production growth, it will boil down to how the numbers crunch out as far as eps goes. E&P companies can always surprise....generally it either comes via losses or gains on production hedges or sometimes it's ceiling test write downs taken against the underlying NAV of the leaseholds. The surprise can be in either direction. But the fact is HK has higher production than KOG and the stock is less than half the price. With what HK has going in production increases in Utica, Bakken and El Halcon and with the liquidity coming in the 4th qtr with the closing of the asset sale....I figure it's a win-win situation.
If the numbers disappoint and it sells off...I'll lower my cost basis...or if the numbers please the crowd..I'm content with what I have. HK realistically is gonna be pushing 50,000 boepd by year end and it's gonna have $300 million of liquidity coming in the 4th qtr...less transaction costs....and it's under $6 a share. I'm an old school contrarian investor...I buy discounted stocks and I hold them long term. Short term flippers and day traders may find themselves in a quandary as to what to do on HK.....as a long term contrarian.....I'm in the catbirds seat...I either start getting paid or I get more of what I want cheaper......so bring on earnings and CC....I'm ready to go with the flow which either direction the herd desire to run. JMHO...GLTA
All we know for certain on the Woodford wells is Bennett says the first two results would be discussed in the CC...but since there are 8 additional wells planned....one would surmise they met with success or got good enough data to make it worthwhile to pursue. With limited cap-ex why would you pursue 8 more Woodford wells when you know you could get production drilling the Miss.....unless the Woodford is offering a better ROR.
My thinking is that the Woodford wells met with a degree of success..but I reckon we'll find out what we find out ! JMHO..GLTA
all depends on whether you believe they follow the strategy they've laid out....if they sell off some non'core assets and pick up some liquidity. In my opinion for a smaller company to have their assets so scattered geographically isn't good....they've got some good producing properties and if they concentrate on their sweet spots they could produce some good earnings. We'll see what happens...I've taken a position but I haven't waded in to deeply until I see what they do on results and what what they've done as far as following the strategy they laid out. GLTA
Sheep....it's would be hard to believe exit rates could be LESS than 42,000 boed. They were at 40,000 per the latest presentation and the Kibler and Allam weren't connected. They were connected prior to quarter end and those two wells alone take it over 42,000 boed plus there were additional wells added post the presentation in all three core plays. If the boed isn't close or above 45,000 exit rate...I'll be listening very closely to the CC as to how they crunched the numbers. Granted the average isn't going to be that high...but the current run rate should be up there...and that bodes very well for an outstanding 4th qtr...along with the liquidity coming in on the close of the asset sales. I think we've got two very good back to back qtr's set-up. JHMO..GLTA
Exactly....those facilities aren't going in over speculation....the Kibler and Allam have verified what HK's lease holds. I think they're being smart as they'll have the facility open to others initially to utilize capacity but as HK grows it's own production it will have priority over the utilization of same. With the IP's of the Kibler and Allam and the % of liquids with the high working interest...Utica is going to be a big revenue producer.
I keep seeing posts referencing "secret plays in other shales"....I'd just ask ...who needs them ? With what Halcon has going in Utica, Bakken, and El Halcon....they don't need any other plays. I'd like to see them liquidate any holdings outside the three core areas to reduce debt and fund increased production. I'd rather hear they sold the Woodbine rather than acquire a new interest. JMHO
presentations. Still it looks promising enough to me to see what they do versus what they say. If they put up the numbers I'll probably add depending on the price action or bail out if they miss. Just a few more days and the numbers will tell the tale.....I still think there's good money to be made on some of the smaller producers...if they can put up the numbers. JHMO GLTA
getting connected plus the other 8 or 9 that were #$%$...production growth is in the bag for next qtr as well. Between what's coming online in El Halcon and the Bakken plus the Utica....anyone questioning increased production is a simpleton...period. As for those mentioning..BONUSES....uhhh the company is has a rather large insider holding....so why shouldn't they ? Keep in mind the liquidity coming in the fourth quarter.. between $200 to $300 million and it depends on what they do with it regarding debt and capital funding. I still think folks are missing how big the Utica will be with the wells they hit er the Kibler and Allam and they acreage they hold. The rail and processing facility and tank batteries ought to be a clue even for the clueless. I'm sitting pat on my position and may up the ante if the herd gets silly ahead of earnings...just a few more days...then the lights come on and the roaches will run for cover. GLTA
here soon enough...and there's never anything more revealing and more rewarding than good earnings. I'm glad I bought the stock when I did...it looks to me like they are on the right track. If and it's always and if ...they produce good or better than expected earnings and a good forward outlook...the stock has a lot of room to run before being caught up to peers on valuation. I think between Leon putting on a $10 fair valuation and TPG putting on an option of the size they put on....it's money in the bank that earnings won't disappoint. Granted SD left a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of folks....but if they put up the numbers that prove today's SD isn't the SD of old....the chance of making money makes folks forget sour taste. Facebook is a fine example of how attitudes and valuation can change in very short order when a company posts the right numbers. So we'll see what we see in a few short days and if the boys did what we longs think they did..we'll be happy campers. JHMO..GLTA
How's about these little factors....$302 million liquidity from asset sale...probably will bottom line above $250 million, but be ultra -conservative..and just say $200 million..still sweet. Slickwater is only doubling IP's in the Bakken....all of the Ohio wells just got connected so there will be full impact in the 4th qtr production and those are big IP's....and El halcon is growing like mad.....I guess if one is determined to worry you could...as a meteor could show up out of the blue and be a spoiler...but that's kind of a reach...I think we are good to go HK.......oh.yeah..will
Floyd devulge the "new" play ? JHMO...GLTA
Premarket looks good....I don't care for Cramer...but he has a large and devoted following that adores him. It is what it is. GLTA
Axas has about as pretty a chart as you can find...a classic "golden cross" of the 200 dma by the 50 dma and both in a slow and steady climb. Last presentation had current production at 5,000boepd which is a 22% increase over last qtr's rate. With earnings this close....you ain't gonna get any "DECLINE"......JHMO
Fairly decent hit. GLTA
Unless somebody is willing to step up to the plate and prove there is an additional +4,000 bopd that's occurred since the date of the presentation..I'll stick with what the company said....guidance was 35,000 bopd...at the presentation date it was 40,000 bopd...and the day after the presentation both the Kibler and Allam wells were being connected for sales....SERIOUSLY AIN"T THAT GOOD ENOUGH ?.... a dollar to a donut says all the wells mentioned "in secret" are already in the 40,000 bopd....but hey, surprise me...I like money as much as the next man. I think the number at earnings will be somewhere between 35,000 to 40,000 "average" for the qtr with 43,000 + boepd at the present production rate....those numbers will be excellent and I may be sand-bagging a tad.
well..I know what my psychic says..and ain't you or anyone else going to fool me into telling you what I know. I ain't saying it's good and I ain't saying it's bad...I'm just saying I know something ya'll don't know. nah..nah..nah ......nah nah nah..LOL
Well , there's a little flaw in the logic here. Saying they completed all those wells...and then listing them by name but not BOPD. Why say anything at all if you wanted to "keep" your advantage. Ain't that like saying I have 5 cards of the same suit...while the betting is still going...but you won't say if it's a high card flush or a straight flush ? If the statement was made to "bolster" interest...wouldn't you give the BOPD if the numbers were good.
Sometimes wells are lousy....I'll just stick with what the company has said in regard to production....it's official and it's in print and it's plenty good enough for me. I subscribe to a psychic hotline and you'd faint if I were to tell you what I know about HK's future...but it cost me $1.99 per minute and it's for me to know and ya'll to find out !!! LOL
I'm headed to the woods tomorrow..ya'll hold down the fort until I get back.GLTA
I had a buy order in at 2.98...so don't blame me.....leaving for the deer woods tomorrow so ya'll will have to hold down the fort....
If they post a good production increase....and the presentation said they were up to 5,000 bopd..then the share price will take care of itself at earnings. JMHO.
would be impressed if there were details and source reference....otherwise anyone can say anything. JHMO