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bogwa1406 333 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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  • Current PE for AXAS
    trailing 32.6x
    forward 11.8x
    2014 12.2 x
    2015 9.1x
    INDUSTRY
    trailing 33.6 x
    forward 15.8x
    2014 14.3x
    201512.4x
    MARKET
    trailing 21.8x
    forward 16.0x
    2014 16.1x
    2015 14.4x
    Current Recommendation
    STRONG BUY -1.4 analysts (6)
    Buy analysts (1)
    Hold analysts (1)
    Under perform analysts (0)
    Sell analysts (0)

    What's Cannacord's one analyst have to say to 8 Thomson Reuter's analysts ? I don't put a whole lot of emphasis on any brokerage....but at least pay attention to quality firms. That report is available free and is printable 4 page reort..I believe I printed from my Fidelity pro-trader site..but it should be available at Thomson Reuters. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 26, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I seriously only care about two critical points on any investment...my cost basis and my % of gain at the sale point...I generally like to go to house money at 100% gain if everything still looks good...and that would be above $6 share. I seriously doubt any further opportunities will occur to lower my cost basis and I only add position that lowers my cost basis. So AXAS is just in a "making noise" phase for me at present although it's gained appreciably...it's got a ways to go to meet my objectives. Barring any forward "factual" bad event...I anticipate my % of gain to keep climbing as my cost basis remains constant. I recently sold my WRES..reluctantly but I stick with discipline and cleared a 50% gain. So now I am on the hunt for another "undervalued" candidate where I can park capital again. If guaranteed 6 month CD's ever yield + 50% ...I'll get out of the market...but to date I don't see that happening. I get good gains by doing DD....being disciplined...adding patience...and ignoring the noise "euphoria, fear" the swing traders are always there to create. If it ain't broke....don't try to fix it. JMHO GLTA

  • AXAS is also steadily rising on Fidelity's over-all numerical rank. But over-riding what any analysts says..I use my own grey matter. Cannacord isn't even recognized by most of the large brokerages who compile over-all rankings...so can they get "their voice" heard ? Yep any flunky can put out whatever upgrade or downgrade they desire, just like the SA authors and Motley Fools. Money is made by many who can yo-yo stocks. As pointed out by lyacyas6 in an earlier post...a Cannacord analyst "boost optimistic 2nd qtr outcome in the CC"...then they downgrade but raise the price target.........that's not bizarre in the least is it ?......What will be will be...it's a money game and someones always making plays to cash in. I stick with the rocking chair...and grinning...because I still firmly believe this stock is gonna keep climbing and the kids will keep playing with the yo-yo's....but the main indicators will still keep steadily climbing. Yo'yo's are fun but if you get to fancy with the tricks they can smack you right between the eyes. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 26, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    poor little child eddie buzzard..trying to scroll off any positive post...Has anyone ever seen Eddie buzzard post anything factual worth reading ? Reckon it's beyond his mental capacity ?

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 26, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    #$%$ eddie buzzard

  • the rate production and cash flow rises. There are numerous "eye's" being drilled and permitted...we have "ONE" successful well under the belt...we'll soon be getting the numbers on Snake Eye's and see how it stacks up to Blue Eye's on initial IP and also if the sub-pump strategy is applied. On the current spacing plan there is room for 100 wells and future down spacing could increase that significantly. Remember however..AXAS is just now doing their first down spacing in the Bakken...and if that goes alright then they will have an increased well count there. Bob and crew have consistently shown they take a "cautious approach" but a technically thorough approach to drilling. For a small E&P...a $6 to $10 million dollar dry hole can be a disaster..so it's in our "shareholders" interest that they stay the course. Let others spend $$$ on down spacing, longer laterals, new frac methods, and then when it's proved itself out...use what has been proven. AXAS drilled excellent wells in Wycross, and the Bakken and most on small working interest %....so practice made perfect on mostly someone else's nickle and now they're putting their honed skills into 100% owned wells. They don't have "Billions in cap-x" to attack Jourdanton...they'll need to hit good wells so cash flow can fund drilling. The type curves on the wells will play a role on how flow rates drop off and the rate new wells can be brought on to establish overall boepd levels. The upside is that AXAS does still have Duverany and Permian assets which will be divested and would enhance available cap-x for drilling the increased inventory in both the Bakken and Jourdanton. It's gonna be a good year...but just be content to let the work get done and the numbers to come in...this isn't "Facebook or Google"...it takes work and millions of dollars to get the valuation pay-off...and it'll come for those who wait. I'd rather AXAS be undervalued and ahead on it than to have it get over-valued. JMHO GLTA

  • be getting late this week or early next week. We already know Dutch 2H is +1000boped...we just don't know the oil cut. I'm sticking with the comments Bob made regarding it should be on par to Wycross and it may get better. So it's just a waiting game for that catalyst...then on to the next...and the next...and the next....etc..etc. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 25, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    My problem was the $3.05 realized price on natgas with no explanation. Their hedges were higher than that and 50% of production was open to spot prices which were soaring on the CIG which they sell into. I can only figure they did some really bad options on their hedges or they didn't meet some volumes due to production on the CBM wells...but if I can't find something in print to explain it and the company won't provide an explanation...I was up +50% so I sold at $4.92....and I had a $3.12 basis. There may be a legitimate cause...but I don't play the guessing game or wishing game on investing....I protect my capital and my gains. If I can get answers..I may reposition ...but when there's no answer for a drop like that on realized price..in a market that was soaring...my discipline says sell first....then look for the answer. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 25, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    My problem is with just getting $3.05 per mcf when the both their hedges were above that level and 50% of the volume was open to spot prices....without an explanation...they either had large option losses or didn't meet production obligations. I wish I could have found the cause or received an explanation but I didn't. I hope it keeps running...but regardless they should explain to share holders why they got such a low price in Q4. I made good money..so no regret and if I had the answer to that pricing I'd probably still own it....my assumption is either they had production issues on the CBM or they did some bad contracts on the gas sales. If I can't find an answer in print and the company won't respond...then I take the safe way out. Sold at $4.92. JMHO GLTA

  • was why they only realized $3.05 per MCF in 4qtr versus $3.41 in the the 3rd qtr. Also saw an SEC filing of a VP selling his shares and since I was up over 50%....I err to the cautious side and cashed out. The stock may do fine and maybe they'll "do some s'plaining Lucy" on what happened on natgas prices which should have been stronger not weaker. But at a 50% gain....it's wham, bam thank you mam. Not saying it's a sell or a buy...but several on this board also know I held that stock...it's still highly rated...but I'd rather miss $$$ than lose $$$ and 50% ain'tchump change. Even with AXAS...as long as they shoot straight with individual investors....and they provide explanations when discrepancies occur then I'll stay on board...but when any company caters to the analysts and funds and ignores the individual.........I cash out. It's shame as WRES does have great stats...but that can be said about a lot of pro-athletes....who crash and burn. JMHO GLTA.....it was rewarding !!!!!

  • Reply to

    Who can explain to me about earinings

    by jpegwmv Mar 24, 2014 12:11 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 24, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    No fear of cutting a finger on the sharpest knife in the drawer if they grab hold of you. Just saying !!!!

  • My last question was to ascertain why they only booked $3.05 per MCF realized price in the 4th qtr when they got over $3.41 in the 3rd qtr. To top that off an SEC filing just out shows an officer selling his shares....I was up well over 50% and when I get no response to a legitimate query..and I see an officer selling...well I sold my position. Everything says the company should be successful...but when it comes to $$$$ I err to the side of caution. I don't suggest either buying or selling the stock...there may very good causes for both the reduced natgas price and the officer selling shares....I just figured at a 50% gain for a relatively short time...why poke a gift horse in the eye. I'll still be watching the stock...and I may repurchase at a higher/lower cost basis..who knows. But for now I'm cashed out. JMHO GLTA

  • day on the Dutch 2 H, there's a 50/50 chance he may give a tidbit on Snake Eyes which was being fraced the week of March 12....way too early in the game to be getting antsy over little valuation runs and retraces. Too many high % working interest wells stacked up and fixing to add to production. I can appreciate the day trader who sold the $4.15.....it's hilarious to see the sleepers taking $3.93....LOL....but to each their own...but it appears all day traders aren't cut from the same cloth. As I said before, I never sold when we hit $3.96...but I did buy another 5K at $3.54, and another 5k at under $3.09...and if they want to cycle the stock again...I still have room in the boat for more. So these yo-yo's can be a good thing...if you have a strategy and discipline. All that's happened is I now own a lot more shares at a better cost basis while the company has become fundamentally stronger and advanced even further in their strategy execution....= $$$$$ JMHO GLTA

  • valuation remains to be the balance sheet and the increasing production. So let the lads play the little ups and downs as the real moves that make $$$$ will come with the well results and divestitures. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 23, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    "Trabnscript"....LOL..LOL...can't tell I had an early hot toddy...LOL......Pink Floyd " Comfortably Numb".....and I am there !!!!!!!! GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 23, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Not a clue.......they booked some impairment charges last qtr...but my thinking is it doesn't matter overall. It unproven, it's not adding to production, it's unbooked so it adds nothing to PV-10 or book valuation...so sell it..( and Wycross showed they are good at getting "market:" prices). So whether they make some $$$ or lose some $$$ I don't care...just get whatever the sale brings and put the cash towards lowering debt, additional bolt on acreage, another rig...but both the Permian and Duvernay are better to divest than remain $$$ drains. Of course as usual that's just my humble opinion. GLTA

  • Snake Eyes is complete and was being frac'ed weeked of 3/12 100% WI
    Spanish Eyes was being drilled and was +8,000 feet !00% WI
    Dutch 2 H is on production at +1000boepd 20/64 choke...oil cut yet to be announced !00 %WI
    Dilworth East is completed and waiting on gasline hook up before being fraced !00% WI
    Jore Federals are completed and waiting on frac 76% wi
    Ravins are being drilled all middle Bakked and at 330 foot spacing = 40 more wells if successful at 50% wi
    Existing Eye's planned will hold Jourdanton by production...more acreage is still being bolted on as was some Wycross acreage added.
    Permian and Duvernay are being divested,,sounds like Duvernay is all but a done deal.
    AXAS is hitting on all cylinders....although the Bakken wells are great....The Cave wells along with the Eye's are gonna be the real production catalysts. I think folks are gonna be pleasantly surprised with pps valuation from here to years end....and if they hit their stride it could very well get really ,really good. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    Wow, That $4.00 Mark Is A Bear!!!

    by manonzmoon Mar 20, 2014 2:42 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 21, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    Wanna buy a "Bear rug" "......I can make you a good deal....I'm some what overwhelmed with bear skins in my portfolio. Some do have visible tire tracks as they were obvious victims of being run over by something much bigger than they were. LOL...GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Mar 21, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    If the water rate I saw was just frac flow back...so much the better. The point is the expenditure on the sub-pump is easily justified. If a sub pump can boost IP rates by +28% then I'd suggest Bob corner the market on sub-pumps. There could be a little downgrade of total EUR's but that's a phenomenal increase increase in production rate. If Blue Eyes averaged, 383 for the first 30 days and then averaged 494 through the next 30.......sub-pump is paid for and the forward flow rate is definitely higher than what it would have been. JMHO GLTA

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