cost on a well to add a subpump is $250,000....fairly hefty price tag. Sandridge uses a lot of subpumps as they water cut runs around 13 to 1...meaning 13 barrels of water to each barrel of oil/ngls. They also have to drill numerous salt water disposal wells. AXAS is showing about a 1-1 water from the data I've seen. Now the initial 30 day IP just on oil was 383 bopd and after the subpump the IP went to 494 bopd or a boost of 111 bopd from adding the subpump. Using a nominal realized oil price of $80 a barrel that generates $8,800 a day in additional revenue and $250,000 /$8,800 = a 28 day pay-off. NOT BAD BANG FOR THE BUCK. Granted all type curves fall off fairly steeply...but even though the flow rate will fall off...the subpump will still yield a very short IRR on the cost. I would expect we'll see subpumps on all subsequent "Eye's" wells with a payout on the metrics like Blue Eyes provided. JMHO GLTA
on the 100% working interest wells....dare we dream of such lofty heights of reaching industry and sector averages or even beyond ? Still just rocking in my chair and grinning....I ain't got run over yet..gotta see what happens in this story when we get into the best production months....JMHO GLTA
LOL..LOL.." and the wall..came tumbling, tumbling down !!!!!!!!!!! Oh ye of little faith...
I would evoke the following in the immortal spirit and words of RR to Gorbachev in referencing the "$4 wall".
"Mr. Watson...TEAR DOWN THAT WALL"......I further predict the freedom fighters of valuation will take up picks and hammers and will chip away at it until it becomes dust and fragments of something which once seemed formidable but crumbled under the forces of due diligence and undervaluation.......how's that for dramatic interpretation ? JMHO GLTA
I'd stick with guidance as released by the company and take into consideration they openly state they prefer to be conservative. Bob advised ahead of 4 qtr there would be production impact plus the workover charge on a well which was caused by a neighboring frac job. It still ended up being a decent qtr and year end. Jan and Feb were very harsh months...so I'd just stick with the guidance...as March was half way through when that guidance was issued. Once 1 qtr is under the belt then it should be game for production. I'm content with AXAS as is and have no need for getting expectations ahead of practicality. Also Blue Eyes is not doing 1,000 bopd unless I missed a news release...From 4k to 5k is a 25% increase..from 4k to 6k is a 50% increase....it's gonna be a very good year...but I'd advise to sit back enjoy...just guidance as issued should be plenty and anything more is gravy. JMHO GLTA
when you look at AXAS stats and compare them to other E&P's like GDP or EOX...it's hard to understand how the herd formulates valuation. I prefer investing in companies with sound balance sheets and solid strategies. It doesn't however mean the herd will show -up. At least recently we have had an abundance of media coverage and positive analyst upgrades....but we're far from being in a price range of over-valuation...which is where I like to sell. Part 1 is to buy a stock that is grossly undervalued versus peers ..Part 2...the most difficult half ...is to get the overvaluation. Just a PE of 10 would have us at $4.10 and that's a PE 50% below the sector average and this is on a stock with pristine balance sheet and upward guidance on both production and earnings. Just takes patience....eventually we'll get some fair valuation...but I'd prefer overvaluation. JMHO GLTA
I agree also...and I bought in lower and ahead of the article...LOL...I just love it when the dominoes start
falling the way I anticipate. GLTA
No pumping..JUST FACTS...under SEC Filings...dated 3/19/14...fully updated on hedges and more importantly the guidance for !st qtr and full year 2014 production broken out by oil and natgas. Also numerous new catalysts list provided as well as CBM wells exceeding expected results. End of presentation is the best where EBTIDA growth is shown for past years. JMHO GLTA
and we just set a new high. So the negative macro sentiment has nothing to do with AXAS...the micro oil,natgas rising is favorable to AXAS. I would imagine the algorithms and HFT traders are having a ball today. This was Yellen's debut...so it's not unexpected for folks to be apprehensive on their positions. Regardless...it's been fun this week across my entire portfolio....bring on the warmer weather, bring on the wells..and most importantly bring on the WEALTH.........still just rocking and grinning...but I did chuckle a couple of times today. :) JMHO GLTA
Not that they don't deserve what's coming. JMHO GLTA
in regard to the Dutch 2 H when questioned. ( From the CC call )
You said that Dutch 2H well at your Cave Prospect was flowing at about 1,000 BOE per day, which is great. But how similar is your Cave Prospect acreage to the WyCross acreage in terms of oil and gas cuts?
Robert Watson - President and Chief Executive Officer
It's about the same. It's about the same GOR because of our desire not to flare gas, we are pushing every button we can to get the gas market in there as quickly as we can, which we hopefully will have here in a very near future. And as far as the well in place there, we can come up with a scenario that's even greater at Cave than it is at WyCross. The rocks appear to be a little bit better, so time will tell.
So..some may think I'm over enthusiastic as to the Ducth 2 H....I'm just looking at existing published results on their prior Wycross wells and listening to what Bob says regarding the Dutch 2H and keep in mind it was online when he made the comment above. JMHO GLTA
STRONG BUY.....( 4 page printable report avaliable..free @ Fidelity)...Columbine 3/13/14...rating OUTPERFORM.
Just a confirmation that major brokerages have changed their view.Thomson Reuters Current recommendation is comprised of 8 analysts...1 rated it hold, 1 rated it buy...6 ( count them SIX ) rate it STRONG BUY report issued 3/18/14 at a current $3.91....not a bad valuation report in my book. JMHO GLTA
and who they are affiliated with. No mention of reason...so rumor mill is open for whatever bizarre theories you can create. GLTA
we'll see a fair struggle over the $4 price point. I seriously doubt there's a whole lot of shares out there that have a cost basis still above $4...if there is they are antiques. I didn't sell up here before but I did add an additional 10K to my position 5k at 3.54 ( bad add ) and another 5 K under $3.09...so we'll see what happens this round. I'm still firmly anchored that AXAS is gonna keep pushing through the walls on pps. We'll have a little lull in time before the next IP updates so there's a window for games to be played...but with the divestiture wildcard that could play out on any given day....it's russian roulette ...to play the yo-yo game. We're closing in on a million shares this morning already this morning....so it's still looking like there's plenty of folks wanting more. It'll be what it'll be....I'm still sighted in on 2nd and 3rd qtr for the $$$$. JMHO GLTA
@ $4.10 AXAS will only be at a PE of 10....whereas sector and industry is at +20...and AXAS has a great balance sheet. THIS IS FAR FROM OVER.
We have investors, day traders, shorts, momentum traders....put them altogether and you get chaos. I expect all the positive media and the companies positive performance will prevail and the near term $4.50 should be reached sooner than later. Like it or not the IP's on new wells will be coming soon. JMHO GLTA
Both the Permian and Duvernay are on the sale block per Bob's most recent comments in the follow-up answers in the CC call ..available at seekingalpha. When asked if the divestitures were completed he jumped right in to say no. He was pretty clear they are both as good as gone. Before he always kept Duvernay as being open to a farm -out option...this time he indicated it is near being resolved. If I'm correct per the prior presentations both are unbooked as Duvernay is unproven and the natgas assets are unbooked per SEC 5 year rules. I say sell 'em and put the cash towards another rig or just more wells..or further debt pay down. Just another upside carrot hanging out there that can happen any day. Wycross sale caught me by surprise..although in hindsight Bob had made comments hinting towards that possibility but I never picked up on them. He is coy on IP's, acquistions, and divestitures and that's a prudent way to be in this business. JHMO GLTA
Take AXAS @ sub $4 a share and look at the stats versus GDP @ +$13 a share. Look at the production levels and look at the margins of the two companies as well as analyst opinions and guidance. Now GDP kind of plays a different game as they convert their production into mcfepd format instead of the normal boepd that most E&P's use. But in looking at their recent 1st qtr guidance they're showing 4,087 boepd at the midpoint of their range. So with basically a guidance on parity with AXAS conservative guidance of 4,000 boepd we have a stock with strong forward guidance with expectations of 6,000 boepd weighted heavily to oil and a pristine balance sheet whereas, GPD has a horrendous statistical balance sheet, post huge losses...yet those share holders are miffed because the stock isn't above $20.... I personally would'nt buy GDP at $4 a share...and I think AXAS is easily an $8 stock by sector standards....but this is where you get into the realm of sometimes the numbers and the facts are lost in the dust of the herd. Will the increasing coverage on AXAS get the herd attention ? Who knows...most folks don't buy the facts..they buy the euphoria. But just as I suggested you can look at GDP's stats and the PPS, I could just as easily list another 20 to 50 E&P's who are grossly overvalued. AXAS is far under what it should be per it's performance and it's forward outlook....but it's more about the herd and the herd's sentiment, on when and "IF" it can ever get into overvaluation. I don't bank on getting a run of euphoria to get valuation..but I firmly believe enough folks will see the fundamentals and at fair sector values I expect $8 a share...so I'll keep rocking and grinning. because there's plenty of headroom on AXAS.