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bogwa1406 254 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2014 9:10 AM Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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  • -Guidance was reaffirmed....July was pegged at 6600 boepd, exit rate at year end is guided to 8,000 boepd.
    - Significant increases in 2014 in proved reserves with that amount to increase with S. Jourdanton.
    - Significant increase in well inventory and the inventory consists of highly predictable results and good IRR wells.
    - An additional bolt -on to Dilworth soon to be announced and it was confirmed the largest portion of the acquisition has already been completed.
    - Last high LOE cost (Duvernay) to be divested).
    - Approximately 80% hedged to protect IRR and lenders....so oil price fears are unfounded.
    - Anticipated additional rig but not yet BOD approved...I'd say 100% odds of being a done deal.
    - The 100 day and 200 day SMA...is still in uptrend and I fully expect they'll stay in uptrend.

    Now for anyone who wants to say AXAS is stagnant...predictable or isn't in a growth / turn-around..then look at the two year chart...if you are still of that opinion...then you are just dumber than dirt. I maintain that AXAS is just beginning to their stride and cash flow is about to grow significantly. So my wager is still in place and will remain so. JMHO GLTA

  • or rally the market in general. However in general, good solid performance generally holds up even in adverse market conditions........so this is now about the 4th qtr of repeated over-performance on the AXAS turn-around story and I still see no reason that it doesn't only continue but fully expect further acceleration based on the most recent guidance on both production, acquisitions @ Dilworth and planned divestiture of Duvernay. For me it's just a case of loving the micro story more than fearing the macro environment. So we maintain the status quo.......holding pat. JMHO GLTA

  • date and there is a good chance of an update on the Dilworth add-on and possibly comment on an additional rig. One would think with the all the south side Jourdanton inventory and an add-on at Dilworth (described as a high multiple factor of the existing acreage) it is more probable that a rig will be added. As is AXAS is performing above expectations, the 100 and 200 day SMA's are solidly in uptrend and the RSI is around 60. Bottom line is we are looking good going into what should be the strongest quarter yet with a good chance of Q4 be guided even stronger. I'd like to see the update before I leave...but if not...I'm not leaving worried about AXAS. JMHO GLTA

  • overly concerned about current gyrations in pricing. I would suspect there was a lot more in depth due diligence on the recent sale. With Cat Eye's being the first well on the South Jourdanton and even longer laterals being drilled on the south side...this old man ain't about to cut and run. They are increasing proved reserves, holding most acreage by production...increasing well inventory substantially..and a near double on year over year production. I hate to see the market toss out babies with the bath water but the market does what it does. I just have to look at the fundamentals of the company and it's strategy...and I can't find cause for selling.....so I ain't. If they destruct the price far enough...I'll most likely just wade into deeper water....I've never drowned yet. JMHO GLTA With decent macro environment we would most likely have $7 behind us already, but it is what it is.....so it's patience and fortitude at play for now.

  • Every time there's been little movement all the chatter starts...but since I've owned it AXAS has maintained a steady climb....which is why I bought it...and still expect much more in % of gain...Even though it has gained considerably....the numbers that really drive PPS are just now coming to fruition over the next two or three quarters and maybe even longer. Day trade it if you like....but my ol' buy and hold has worked out pretty good so far..I don't see any reason to upset the apple cart. JMHO GLTA

  • method of Bob's way of saying "great well" ahead of the 30 day IP's. I was also noteworthy that even though the Jore's are a nice rates...they are on constrained flow due to take-away issues. Once the bottlenecks in the gas pipeline are sorted out...those chokes can be increased. So where are we at now ?
    1- We got a well timed update that everything is as it should be...if not better
    2- We have a macro market that's getting nervous
    3- We still have turmoil ongoing in the mid-east
    I see no reason to alter my expectations....a great 2nd qtr coming up, and an even better 3rd qtr. Two long laterals in the Jourdanton and down-spacing in the Bakken plus whatever additional Eagle Ford acreage is acquired. Trade the ups and downs if you like....but I'm staying on the old boring buy and hold strategy. JMHO GLTA

  • so I I think I'll maintain the status quo and see what we see. JMHO GLTA

  • in the past few days that they didn't sell..now have their chance.....or do they suddenly have a change of heart ? JMHO GLTA

  • $10 million dollar wells ....is there oil yes but it's an expensive process to get it. If oil prices fall much lower you'll see rigs get stacked like crazy. Lest everyone forget that even with $100 WTI and around $4 natgas many E&P's are already struggling with debt loads and low earnings. Further erosion in pricing will just strengthen AXAS's position as being a healthy E&P and it'll knock out many borderline players. It's a market and it's cyclic....I maintain AXAS is well positioned....a great balance sheet clean-up...so even if things were to get tougher they have wisely put themselves in much better position versus two years ago. But back to the initial point...if prices fall much lower...you'll see production fall off in fairly quick order. It's cause and effect. JMHO GLTA

  • -6% cost of transaction fees should net $7.1 in addition to the $47 million net on the initial 10 million. So $54.1 million cash for Bob and crew to go hog wild drilling and adding acreage. Works for me. JMHO GLTA

  • wells being connected to OneOk's system which has plenty of capacity. I believe the number was an additional 6 wells coming on production before 3rd qtr end. Dilworth is about to grow inventory in a high multiple of it's current size with the largest portion a done deal already. How big ? We'll soon see. LOE costs dropped and the last high LOE was identified as Duvernay which is on the plate for divestment. Guidance is still an exit rate of 8,000 boepd. Now Poc is better schooled in hedges and derivatives but I did use to hedge nat gas as a buyer for a national company and although I didn't handle the accounting end...my experience is when you hedge....at say $90...if oil goes to $100 you missed out on $10 a barrel versus had you not forward sold your production...and you take a non-cash charge on that equivalent amount. If you hedged at $90 and oil falls to $80 you realize a $10 a barrel premium above the market price and you see a non-cash realized gain. The whole reason for hedging is not to gamble on market prices but rather to insure you get a price that meets your hurdle rate on IRR and also to meet requirements of lenders. Who can risk drilling a $10 million well with an IRR based on $90 oil and be left open to losses if oil fell to $60 ? Farmers hedge their crops, and almost all major suppliers and buyers hedge theirs supplies or needs in almost all commodities. The average investor puts far too much emphasis on short term swings in commodity prices as the only ones making money are the commodity traders. AXAS is hedged to protect IRR and to meet lender requirements...production growth is fabulous and guidance is solid. I'm long term...staying long term...2nd qtr CC provided all the confirmation I was looking for. JMHO GLTA

  • on any post. So things aren't always what they appear. Keep doing what you do. Thanks and GLTA

  • standing pat...added some shares but what can I say...I like cake. We'll see how the numbers shake out. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    Conservatives and the Tea Party

    by mitchjl_16923 Jun 18, 2014 7:49 AM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Jun 18, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    Click

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Aug 27, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    From Q2 2012 CC
    Unidentified Investor
    I'm just an investor. I've got a series of questions. With all due respect to you and your decision-making process regarding Mr. King, you're the new CFO, I know Davidson College is an excellent academic institution where he went to school. He's got a degree, it says here, in economics. But he doesn't appear to have an accounting background. How does his background as a chartered financial analyst with approximately 10 years experience qualify him to be the Abraxas CFO?

    Robert L. G. Watson - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
    I think Jeff is very qualified. He's very knowledgeable. He's very sharp. He's been in the small cap E&P business for a long time. We're structured a little bit differently, and I think it's the wave of the future. Accountants tend to look backwards. Financial people tend to look forwards. And it's somewhat rare for an accountant to be a successful CFO. So we have a very strong Chief Accounting Officer. He reports direct to me. The CFO is just going to be a capital markets type guy, and that's what Jeff's been doing for 10 years. And that's plenty of experience for what I was looking for.
    CC transcript available at SA.
    "

  • so they could short more shares at higher levels. I on the other hand believe WPRT is a bargain at these levels and I certainly could care less about any shorts monetary future. The smart shorts took positions when WPRT was above $30 and in a market creation and spend phase. So the shorts now trash talking are the bottom of the barrel Johnny come lately's. You short the the over priced early risers...you buy the undervalued growth. As stated...I couldn't give a rats behind how shorts come out.......I care about about one investor..ME.
    I bought F under $2, BAC under $5, FB under $19, and these clowns don't think I heard the same old rhetoric on those investments ? I think WPRT's a great risk versus reward.......so I'm putting capital at risk and expecting reward. If shorty really believes his thesis...then load the boat. If WPRT were to fall further that just gives me a lower cost basis entry on something I like.....if shorty makes some chump change on it...doesn't change my thesis or eventual gains in the least. JMHO GLTA

  • Reply to

    Great Day, eh?

    by d_v_9 Aug 25, 2014 1:05 PM
    bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Aug 25, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    and I'd be jumping up and down over what ? Everyone's excited because some SA author says AXAS is worth more than current valuation ? Duh..
    Kuddo's to BK for for doing the deal.....maybe when folks in DC realize how capitalism works...they'll quit over taxing and over -regulating....but then again they would lose their massive bureaucracies and they dare not let that happen. Now that's something I'll jump up and down about. As for AXAS...ain't never been nothing but "money in the bank" since I bought in...and expect it to remain so. JMHO GLTA

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Jun 23, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    LOL, well I never know when or what the herd will do..but the bottom line is for an E&P even at todays PE it's still well below sector average...the guidance on production and revenues are outstanding..generally that means the chickens will come home to roost. I'm like anyone..sooner is always better than later...but so far I've been paid pretty good for waiting and I still think we have a whole lot of upside left. Gyrations wouldn't surprise...seen it before ...probably will see it again...but the trend is firmly in place with both micro and macro strongly supporting future outlook. This is one that just keeps making me smile....actually a little more like a #&%$ eating grin..if you get the drift . JMHO GLTA

  • Everything is heading towards total chaos over there and it is more apt to worsen....and generally the market takes a pessimistic view going forward. We could be seeing some seriously increased prices on oil. I don't suggest everyone is going to necessarily flock to the oil stocks...but conversely who in their right mind wouldn't want to be holding oil stocks...especially those with good balance sheets and strong growth clearly visible. This mornings news said at least one Iraq refinery has been damaged and if the insurgents do in-circle Baghdad and or attempt to take control of the oilfields..we could see some outrageous market reaction in oil prices. Bad news...close your eyes when you go to refuel...but :) we have a stock that can more than make-up for increased fuel costs. It is what it is. JMHO GLTA

  • It's all about the numbers and we'll soon be getting 2nd Qtr results and guidance update going forward into the 3rd and 4th qtrs. Short term traders are going to trade the macro concerns with the global events and the concerns with the US market.....that however has no impact on the actual results AXAS will achieve on production and earnings. I really don't see macro concerns easing much but I do expect 2nd qtr results on AXAS to reaffirm confidence in the growth story. But until earnings come around I wouldn't attempt to forecast what will occur....I've been focused on latter year results for some time and I still see no reason to alter my expectations. JMHO GLTA

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