There will be an additional 35 producer wells added on oil and 48 new CBM wells...plus how ever many of the 60 existing non-producer CBM's they frack and bring back on line. The Ford wells should add to reserves, one can already see what 2013 CBM wells added to reserves so not only will the 48 substantially add to reserves it will also satisfy 2015 BLM requirements for holding the acreage. Most aggressive drilling schedule in 5 years with much higher prices locked in. I can certainly find oodles of E&P's with less stellar prospects at present. JMHO GLTA
Just an FYI
sometimes I get perturbed by stephen but (I'm guessing) I know where he's at on the investing curve. Generally investors with less than 10 years under the belt tend to put too many eggs in one basket..the more eggs= the more worry. The old axiom "time is money" also drives many folks to thinking that if you're burning time..your burning money.....age and years of investing will reveal the meaning of the message is just as simple as can be TIME= money...... sex is wham bam thank you mam.......you want real love....you gotta put some time time and effort in. Stephen is steaming because he didn't put more on WRES versus AXAS...I freely admit I wanted to load the boat more as well.....but prices and timing didn't coincide....that's life....I'm still making money...I still love both stocks...and I don't get all worked up over anything. Actually I can seldom recall buying a stock that doesn't keep getting deeper in the red when I'm taking position...I expect it. I'm buying 3 stocks now that get more red...and I won't catch the bottom but I'll have a basis in the neighborhood..then I'll wait for "TIME is money". Career investors and doctors need patience..and patients..to make for a successful end. JMHO GLTA
I saw the price movement on WRES..but I do thorough DD on every stcok I take a position on. I bought WRES under $3...it's over $4.50 and hit $5.27....the forward outlook is even better. AXAS is every bit just as good a valuation and all this qtr earning will present is either an upside move or a chance to load the boat. It may run up ahead of earning as WRES did ...or it may not. If there are failures in the Bakken or disappointment on the forward "eyes" wells, then my outlook my change. But I invest by facts and DD and at present everything tells me AXAS is gonna payoff in 2014. I fully expect by Q2 earnings to be over 100% gain at which point I out position just like I added..a little at a time until I'm on "house money" which is 1/2 of my original position at 100% or better gain. The rest I leave for my grandchildren and/or my widow on the assumption I haven't killed her. Griping and frustration hasn't earned me one red cent..due diligence, knowledge and patience...has paid off handsomely. If the "FACTS" on AXAS change..then I'll most aptly change...but to date ain't nothing changed. I know there was a substantial charge related to a neighbors frac job...I know the price discount on Bakken to WTI got worse in 4th qtr..and I know winter was hard...but I also know Bob says Eagleford production increase offset Bakken. So I think it's 50/50 on what happens pps-wise on earnings.....I wagered on a bet that pays off in 2,3 qtrs...not short term chump change. JMHO GLTA
bcf in 2013 @ $3.43....this equates to daily averages of 14,246 mmcfd @ $2.88 in 2012, 16,986 mmcfd @ $3.43 in 2013. Released guidance for 1st qtr 2014 is production of 17,222 to 18,333 mmcfd of which they have shown hedges of 12,000 a day @$3.98 and an additional 6000, @ a differential on Nymex/CIG of $0.20 ( a position to which I'm not familiar) with Nymex at $4.65 and CIG at $5.33...it appears a much higher realized valuation. If one takes the 1st qtr guidance range and just runs the number for the full year it equates to an annual production of 6.28 bcf low to 6.69 high. That would discount no increase in the CBM wells that usually triple IP rates in the first two years and it also does not include any production from the 48 new CBM wells to be added and whatever portion of 60 non-producing wells they have discovered were never fractured and plan to at least rework/frac some or all of them. So all of the current natgas production not only should grow substantially above the Q1 guidance...but it will also yield an absolute minimum of $0.55 per mcf above 2013 pricing. The oil side looks just as good. JMHO GLTA
there is an ignore feature...feel free to utilize it
correction....06..missed my typo
of 21 and a sectors average of 19.85. LOL....folks can do what they want...but with increasing production and increasing realized prices on that production......well..have you ever hear the old saying " you wouldn't know a gift horse if you looked in the the mouth" ? We've yet to see revision on book valuation but with natgas proved reserves up 100%...once might suppose they're be upward revision there also. FYI ..Yahoo current PE is not updated for present quarter reported. JMHO GLTA
should be another decent draw in the upcoming period as well. I use the "cold dog" indicator...which is when my dog who has an insulated dog house whines at my window to let him in..which has happened twice this week...well that represents another good draw down. JMHO GLTA
ye this isn't unexpected....I didn't sell or buy at $4.50 or $5.27....these guys are on their game..they're growing production and locking in better pricing. The Q1 production guidance shows those new CBM wells are doing just as expected...growing IP's..even on the oil side the water floods are not only yielding highers IP's on the new wells but also raising production on the older surrounding wells. Most folks don't even know the CBM well area is BLM land and there is a restricted time frame in which you can drill..gotta protect the critters. So even though natgas production will keep climbing on the new wells due to dewatering...back half of the year will see 48 new wells plus they,ve decided to frack 60 shut in wells because of the result on the experiment and result they got on a prior shut in well. This ones gonna be a cakewalk. At 100% gain I'll start slowly easing out until I'm down 1/2 position and then it'll be house money and just gravy for the grandkids or my widow down the road. LOL GLTA JMHO
which equates to 17,222 mcfpd to 18,333 mcfpd for a 90 day quarter. 2013 production rate was 16,400. So they're going to do 5 to 11 % increase on natgas production and 12,000 mmcfpd is locked in at $3.98 which is about 12% above Dec realized price and for the first time they show a new position of a differential on a Nymex/ CIG of $0.20 on 6,000 mmcfpd. Today Nymex is $4.65 and CIG is $5.33. I'll have to do some work to figure out what valuation that position equates to. However WRES confirmed the hedge value I had at $3.98. So let the sellers sell. Being the guidance for Q1 is being given today....I would expect that's a pretty solid bet as we're 2/3's through the quarter and they know what's transpiring. JMHO GLTA....PS oil's California so weather worries play no role and it looks like ol man winter didn't freeze up all WRES's gas . JMHO GLTA
maintain the uptrend. Better pricing and better production....just let time do the work going forward...I'm up well over 50% and fully expect that to keep climbing through 2014....when CD's offer up better rates then maybe I consider moving off WRES. JMHO GLTA
impact on natgas production which was my greatest wildcard concern. The quick buck day traders will leave soon now that the actions is over and the facts are out..then we should maintain a steady climb up. JMHO GLTA
I saw it on my Fidelity..several news lines..also full SEC filed. adjusted was 11 cents. I'm holding firm will listen to CC call here in a few mintues. GLTA
of yellow-ribbons..quicker that a crazed rabbit can swim across a pond.
LOL..well you think whatever your heart so desires.
so you figure you take off the $5.3 million /0.07 off the 0.22 they earned which is 0.15. With higher prices you think they fell below that base. From better pricing on both commodities they could have lost a little production and still did 0.15. As both interest expense had dropped by 11% and the LOE overpayment expense they captured even though no longer a large recapture the adjusted payments going forward is corrected. We'll see what we see. JMHO GLTA
any short who doesn't have a calculator..and look at Q4 2012 production and realized prices versus 2013 will deserve what they get. There really probably aren't any left.
That gain last qtr was $5.3 million divided by the outstanding shares to get the 7 cent benefit.