Macro events were sure lousy timing. This hurt AXAS insiders just as sharply as it has individuals, even the recent $5 secondary folks took a good spanking. Hopefully the worm will turn. Looking forward to earnings and forward guidance...but not expecting market excitement regardless of results with the present market. JMHO GLTA
The USA has sucked up to the Saudi's very much like they did to the Shah of Iran...and we all know how that worked out. The Saudi's are masters at keeping their enemy close and they have the USA is a bear hug.
Doesn't seem likely since they just did a secondary @ $5 and sold the over allotment as well. Only way it would make since is if phenomenal results on recent wells justifies buying another rig. It would make no since to offer a secondary at a price below the last offering ( good way to tick investors off ). And who would pay $5 when you can buy it for $4. I'll wait on official company news..it's always been accurate. JMHO GLTA
mostly lawyers in elected positions rather than businessmen. One could wonder what our economy could be like if we had more business back-ground folks running things...but don't fear....it'll never happen. JMHO GLTA
sit in his deer stand. One channel says a substantial rally is coming and Harry Dent is calling for Dow 5,000...what you gonna do ? From $4.30 to to $3.82 ...says the herd is running in circles. EBOLA !!!! ewwww!!!
Geesh we're living in a crazy world. They tell me ( voices I hear ) that someday fundamentals will return. I don't if that'll be before or after Jesus shows up..the voices never said. Hope everyone is holding their own ...if not try holding somebody else's. :) JMHO GLTA
It's good to see a little upside interest but I think the market overall is still a little precarious at present. You gotta love Octobers...they seldom disappoint...it's like a haunted thrill ride at an amusement park.....you kinda know what's coming...but there are still scary moments. Hopefully this little thrill ride has run it's course. personally I'd settle for an early Santa Claus rally start. Still it's a crying shame on the timing in regard to where AXAS is at as a company and the negative sentiment in the market and sector. Hope everyone is making the best of the adverse market. JMHO GLTA
Unless you can meaningfully lower your cost basis...I can't say there is reason to add. Even at the current oil prices AXAS should still post good profit. The problem isn't a micro story that broke..it's a macro story that seems to just pile on more every day. US domestic supply, ISIS, Ebola, Euro economies. When the VIX is up over 20..it is the sign of fear and when fear is in charge irrational behavior is abundant. Things could change in the other direction just as quickly as they have gone negative....it's a time where if you buy you should use discipline, and have patience. This could get uglier...or the sun could come out. We are beginning earnings season, maybe everyone will don Santa Rally hats..or maybe a meteor will strike the Saudi oil fields...prefer the latter. The stock AXAS isn't broke but market and sector sentiment is in the gutter. I haven't seen any E&P's who aren't getting clobbered. I'm buying very timidly...because I don't know where the sector or the macro market is going. But no one else knows for certain either. JMHO GLTA
carrying the largest handicap. They are highly regulated, they aren't organized in any means to constructively impact pricing and or production levels. Most Opec countries aren't in a highly regulated environment and they can control production to impact global pricing to include lowering prices. Russia is more or less Putin Oil Incorporated and he can pretty much dictate production levels and price discounting at his discretion. Keep in mind the US currently still bans the export of crude and only allows refined products to be exported. So in my opinion US producers are between a rock and a hard place. I have no confidence in the ability of US to do anything until it gets to a crisis point. That seems to be the American way...no foresight whatsoever...just wait for crisis to develop then use hindsight to establish a two way blame game.
Ask yourself this simple question. Post the the OPEC oil ban that all but crippled the US, where and what is the US National Energy policy ? We are no more prepared to handle supply excesses than we were supply shortages...in oil or natural gas. Now if other countries dump wheat or corn, you'll see US reaction but oil or natgas is just allowed to go boom or bust. Bottom line,.once again the health of the US energy industry is and will remain at the mercy of global players who play by different rules. I'll reiterate, watch the job losses mount as prices decline. If lowering prices is a ploy to hurt Putin...it's a fools folly that will only hurt the US. I don't know how this will play out other than it will be a cycle. The question is more to the magnitude of the cycle because we are in the stages of at least a minor cycle at present. What irks me is so far the decision is in the hands of Opec and Russia as to how the the game ends...kind of like being in a three handed poker game...paying ante's and blinds and never getting dealt any cards. Protect US interests,restrict imports of crude and lift ban on exports. JMHOGLT
( " Don't Look Ethel ! " ) Still have some cash to put to work..just waiting to see how ridiculous this is gonna get. Best wishes to all....wish I could tell you it will be short lived....but I don't know what the herd's gonna do.
I will buy the pain to get the forward gain.....but none the less it's very ugly. The sad part is the retail investor was just beginning to get back in and this will just sour the retail investor that much more. They'll all see their 401K's balance at year end...and a lot will bail out. At least guaranteed funds offer no decent return either, at present. It's just plum ugly...but it is what it is...seen it numerous times before and I reckon I'll see it a few times more. Be wise, be disciplined and try and make adverse conditions be an opportunity for you. JMHO GLTA
tracey the hedges are shown on page 40 of the Oct presentation...through 2014 it appears about 90% is hedged at Nymex WTI $95. I did comment yesterday or the day before in regard to oil prices and the uncertainty that could play out with the US, Russia and OPEC. Besides the oil sector being challenged look at what is occurring in the broad market..+/- 200 plus points almost daily. People are rattled and there is little confidence in any sector at present. Markets (people) tend to overreact and I'm just sticking with being patient. Lousy timing for AXAS investors as right as we are hitting great production and a seriously positive year...both the sector and the broad market sours. It's not the first ugly October I've seen and doubtful the last. This will just add to the black Oct fears in forward years. I've bought some positions but now just hunkering down to weather through what ever awaits us. Russia.Ukraine, ISIS, Euro/China economies....Ebola....what's next ? A mega meteor strike. JMHO GLTA
I noted in the Street's comments they seem oblivious to the divestiture of Wycross during the past year. So when you just look at numbers without knowing the details behind the numbers you can make erroneous assumptions. In my opinion Zack's is much more on the mark in it's analysis. If I had to choose I guess I'd have to toss them both out and go with Poc's call. JMHO GLTA
cheating by members. Russia can control output but economic sanctions pretty much negates that occurring. The US producers really can't control production as they would probably be fined for market manipulation and they really aren't organized to accomplish such. Russia is challenged so I would expect Putin will pump all he can, US producers in large numbers will attempt to produce more for lower pricing to maintain revenue. Market forces will eventually take control as pricing goes below production cost. It's the boom /bust cycle that plays out in all commodities. The North Sea producers should already be really get hurt on any unhedged volumes and the longer it goes and more hedges expire...more will feel the pinch. I think immediately lifting the ban on US crude oil exports would be the best move to protect US producers. This would also put a little added pressure on Russia and OPEC. Something could break that changes the scenario...mainly OPEC curtailing production...but I'm not betting on it occurring. OPEC can handle some hurt for awhile....and Putin will most likely make cuts everywhere but in oil production. I'm grateful AXAS has positioned itself financially as it has....even raising cash via shares rather that raising debt, turned out to be rather smart and savvy. I still am not worried about AXAS....but it's looking like we're kissing our sister on the macro and sector situation. This is when you either take advantage ....or close your eyes and find something enjoyable to watch or do. If we actually see a bust cycle in energy...watch what happens to the US economy when one of the strongest legs gets kicked out from under it. JMHO GLTA
Anyone who can forecast another 25% downside by year end is either a fool not to short or a fool who is short. It's one or the other or just another investor who has vision without conviction. JMHO GLTA
It's pretty negative sentiment on the sector at present...it's gonna take good performance on the micro side and or a more positive outlook on the sector. One or two days isn't going to swing negativity unless something huge and unexpected occurs....we eased into the slump and most likely will ease out. But who knows..I don't. JMHO GLTA
I'm building position as well..had regretted selling even though I made a good profit. It's now well below the point I sold out and it's been a solid performer and expect it will remain so. JMHO GLTA
It's oil price/inventory, it's economic concern, China, Russia, Europe, ISIS and most of all it's October which is the annual markek " fright " month. October will pass..and then it's all about the Santa Claus rally which usually begins in late October. There is nothing occurring in regard to AXAS that is not sector wide, matter of fact AXAS has held up better than many. I don't know what's ahead...but the micro story on AXAS is still intact, they are performing....so the show on the stage is still on the mark...there isn't much one can do in regard to the audience....and at present they aren't cheering encore in energy...it is what it is. JMO GLTA
When the herd sentiment turns they turn quick . ETF's have gotten pretty popular and when they dump shares in the sector it causes lots of shares to be sold. Even Exxon is down $35 billion i market cap. I'm a contrarian so I buy into the negativity and then wait for sentiment to change and sell into it. It's challenging as one does see red for a while before the green begins to but it's the nature of the beast in buying a falling sector. Good luck on your strategies. JMHO GLTA
tank of manure.....time will reveal the outcome. Ahhhhh investing can be so much fun at times. Hope everybody does well with their strategies. GLTA JMHO
Typically as prices fall E&P's are forced to try and get more production on lower prices just to stay revenue neutral. Keep in mind all existing wells decline in production so E&P's are faced with either not drilling and having production fall all with lowering pricing...or they can opt to maintain production with falling prices or grow production with falling prices. Many will opt to grow production to meet cash flow requirements....so depending on what occurs in the macro, Opec, economic growth...we could see further production glut as E&P's chase lower prices with increased production. This is generally a period of where the healthy companies get healthier and the weaker get weaker....it's a challenging period and it can be very rewarding if you do your DD..be very selective...and have a tough stomach. This is hitting all the players including the majors..EXXON has dropped over $35 billion in market cap. If the rig counts are going up across the board and Baker Hughes is as good as there is...then if there isn't increased demand we'll see increased inventories. I reiterate I have no concern regarding AXAS health and ability to weather through the current challenge...I think it may very well play to their advantage because of their assets and balance sheet. It could get very tough for many in the sector so tread softly and use discipline. I am buying at present but being very disciplined and cautious as forward price direction is just uncertain. Best wishes to all who play in the oil and gas. JMHO GLTA