Thanks BL, and that is a good point,,,, I suppose that if we knew what percentage of those that complete the first 84 days of treatment continue into the extension study it would tell us a great deal about just how successful the treatment is.
Are you suggesting the possibility that perhaps the arikace advantage was so powerful and obvious that somehow the study was temporarily unblinded to confirm that it was the arikace patients and not the placebo patients that were getting better???? I guess it is a nice thought for INSM shareholders but it seems that if that was the case the trial would have simply been stopped and pronounced a success.
Hi H,, I haven't been on the board much lately, but catching up there are several items I would like to bring to the attention of those here familiar with arikace but not so much with the "old" Insmed products. One of those items is that once Shire or someone else begins producing iPLEX once again there WILL BE a second MMD clinical trial. The degree of Insmeds participation depends on where they stand with their arikace program, but at this point I would have to believe that Insmed will only be a licensee - which is just fine since the trial will be very costly with success being worth billions!! Outside of cancer, MMD and ALS remain two of the Holy Grails of medicine.
I currently show 729 of the March 17.5 call options traded today at a price as high as 3.20. The trade seems somewhat significant because the bid is a full 1 point less than the ask. The buyer has an automatic paper loss of over 70K at this moment but this is a bet of well over 200K that the share price will be well above 20 by March 22nd. Interesting
i.e. from PubMed: Abstract
While the intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis is widely accepted for superiority trials, there remains debate about its role in non-inferiority trials. It is often said that the ITT tends to be anti-conservative in the demonstration of non-inferiority.
Doing a little traveling I noticed INSM was dropping but guessed it was only pulling back after the recent run. Now I see that Fuerstein has apparently been courted by a group of Insmed shorts to do his best to raise concerns about the eventual success of arikace, and he does it so well!! I didn't see a single lie in his story,, ,, it's just that he doesn't tell the whole story.
In particular this statement: "Generally speaking efficacy analyses conducted on ITT or mITT populations are more conservative." That is true because The vast majority of efficacy analyses are looking for superiority, or at least equivalency!! When it comes to non inferiority studies, ITT and mITT are actually anti conservative, especially when dealing with antibiotics, and even more especially when dealing with antibiotics within a small patient population. In non inferiority studies involving antibiotics per protocol is the most conservative method. Certainly don't trust me - simply google some of the key terms.
Jad,, I don't think there is any question that iPLEX has always added an interesting element to Insmed, and it isn't pointed out often enough that the time remaining until they once again will be able to market iPLEX for short stature is roughly the same as the time frame between the end of the MMD trial and now,, and wow did that go fast. There just aren't that many assets anywhere that one can seriously say may be worth somewhere between several million and several billion dollars. iPLEX continues to fall into that weird category!
terry, regarding Insmed has told us that they do not plan to trial or file in the US.
You usually are good at saying a whole lot of nothing. Occasionally you say a whole lot of lies. That statement falls under the latter.
Also meeting with Leerink today, tomorrow and Wednesday.... One of the fastest moves this stock ever made was when complete phase II results were released in 2011 - the rodent report reversed that move. Hopefully complete phase III results will prove to be a share moving event similar to phase II.....
Pianoman,, it is far less clear today than it was only one year ago whether or not companies can not only push,, but even promote their drug for off label use!! Although Insmed really doesn't have to do so since arikace and the patients it may help all see pulmonologists - recent court rulings have generally been favorable for the future of off label usage. Don't believe for a moment that Insmed,, all larger bios looking to purchase companies, and the market isn't keenly aware of this!!! In addition, although cisplatin is licensed and really isn't that large of a market, it does support and add tremendous value to that liposome platform that we learned of nearly three years ago now.
Typical Terry. He says that yesterday 85% of all trades were shorts. That statement is wrong in so many ways..... First, Terry is using the FINRA daily short site which not only includes all shares declared to be a short sale, but also all shares sold that are not held on deposit at the selling firm. With institutions that can be 100%!! Second, every share that is sold short is purchased by.....someone. There is no short selling into empty space....
Time and time again king clown shows his ignorance and nobody should compute how much he is up or down anymore........he is only a wannabe trader,, not a real one.
Mike, the drop was no fun at all, but after appreciating nearly 60% in one month, from August 13th to September 16th, a mere 14% pullback should not cause anybody to hit the panic button!!!
No sales says the king of clowns. None. But wait,, everyone watching Insmed should be fully aware that in dollar terms non CF bronchiectasis would be by far the biggest single market for arikace,, and the company had strong phase II results for this very indication, so why isn't Insmed at least gearing up for a phase III trial for non CF bronchiectasis??? Why? The question may simply be answered by the fact that the same pulmonary specialists treat all of the orphan disease arikace is currently hoping to treat, and the repercussions of US vs Caronia late last year may prove to be as monumental for Insmed as they were for JAZZ!!!!
Blue,, there are plenty of new posters here since Insmed has finally made it's way onto some screens,, but in 2011 Terry told another poster that they had better go study the uptick rule if they planned on shorting. It used to be that a stock could only be sold short on an uptick. That rule was abolished in 2007. Ever since that post,, myself and anyone who was reading the board at that time knows for sure that terrytheclown is a total fraud. He doesn't get paid for posting - hedge funds hire people that are believable and good writers to do that - it is personal for terry,, years ago someone at Insmed apparently did something to Terry and he will never ever let it go!!!!!
Blue,, he may have lost plenty of imaginary cash on his Insmed short but no Insmed long should lose sight of the fact that terrytheclown has never ever ever shorted a stock for real!!!