Yeah you have a small problem. But, the first step is admitting the problem right!? LOL. The price swings don't bother me so much any more. They're either going to deliver or they're not. We could be sitting on a $100 stock, or a bankrupt company, the latter which IMO is unlikely given the backing and product line. PRs would be nice; we could be on the verge of news on several fronts: Army, more gov't deals, HDF partner, Chem Aqua sales contract or new partnerships/sales. All of the above could happen anytime, although the HDF partner will likely require more lead time.
If we land the army contract, I see $5 off the bat. That's 150k filters a year from one contract. Chem Aqua has the potential to blow that number out of the water. About 2000 hospitals and filters are changed every 3 months at most. Let's say 100 rooms per hospital (very low number) use one filter. That's 400 filters per hospital per year. That's 800,000 filters per year, which is over 5 times the army contract. That would be a pps of $30. More government deals, cash to roll out HDF. Potential unlimited. Problem is short term cash flow. If they can solve that, sky's the limit IMO. Right now Chem Aqua sales reps are being trained on Neph's filter. Chem Aqua searched high and low to find a filter. Neph had the best. Don't be surprised to see these guys come in and make an offer down the road. There's another company out there who are much better known than Neph. Can't think of the name. But they control the filter market that Neph is trying to get a piece of. I believe Neph's filter is 40 TIMES better in terms of molecule size that it filters out. So much potential, so little news. Army deal will put this in the spotlight. Sales potential thru gov't alone is very exciting now that they are listed as vendor.
Not sure. I'll try find out this week tho! I was wondering the same thing. I looked at the govt contract awards and went to company websites to check PRs. Didn't find a match but didn't spend too much time on it. I did find one company that issued a PR on 26th December last year but was awarded a contract on the 21st of the same month. Couldn't find the actual contract though, just the date. So, my gut is that the gov't website will have it first.
If we get the army contract, there's no telling where this stock could go. You can easily make the case that we are sitting on a $50/share company. Easily. One army contract could bring in 10% of that. 1% of the HDF market is $400M/year in sales. Chem Aqua orders a measly 100 filters per hospital per year, that's 200,000 filters per year. At $100 a pop, there's $20M. And I think I'm scraping the barrel here. BK has and is a possibility here, but I think someone would come in and pay $2/share. That would be the steal of the century. If I don't walk away with at least $20/share, I'll be disappointed.
Thanks for all the great responses. We'd all love to be in with a chance of more shares knowing the contract is in the bag. I know I've said this before, but I'm most excited about Chem Aqua. That has the potential to be MUCH bigger than the army contract. 1500-2000 hospitals that Chem Aqua provide water services for. Rough math tells me the market here could be 2M filters per annum at a cost (currently approx $160/filter w/out bulk discount). At $100, that's $200M in sales changing filters every 3 months. Huge potential. I would love to hear an announcement on that soon, but prob not until early summer at best.
Just by a show of hands (or keyboard strikes), I'm trying to gather the level of optimism out there that the army contract will come to fruition. Also, if we do realise the army contract, or a significant part of it, do you guys feel the offering will be cancelled? I believe the company said 4-6 months for the contract to be awarded, but all indications are that it will be much quicker than that, possibly by late-end May. As for the contract having multiple awardees, I'm thinking they want the best possible filter out there in the field as pure water really can be the difference in a life and death situation. So maybe we'll only see one vendor.
I was watching tv late last night and a class action lawsuit infomercial came on. This might put current ESRD treatments right in the spotlight. Lets hope so.
From reading these boards, there will be opportunities to oversubscribe. My guess if there are less shares than you would like, then they will be issued on a pro-rated basis of how many shares you own compared to others that want extra shares. Just a guess though. Hopefully we'll have army contract news before then that will pop this thing where it should be. Then let the feeding frenzy begin! That would be a nice place to be! At that point, not sure if the offering would go ahead or not. It would be a nice reward though for all the drama we've all incurred.
Plus the offering is less than a month from closing. The army contract will likely take longer than that. I'll be in Vegas the weekend of May 18th. Not that I need reasons to celebrate, but the more the merrier.
"IWTD as an essential purchase right now". Seriously? I am a 10 year veteran of the armed forces. I can ASSURE you that clean drinking water out in the field is ESSENTIAL. Dehydration and/or heat exhaustion is really not a nice place to be. Especially in the Persian Gulf where it can get rather hot at certain times of the year. A soldier can go for weeks without food; without water, only a day or so in hot desert conditions. Essential IM(humble)O.
Reading your three posts this morning, they are all negative and uninformed. I'm holding just as many shares as you are (from your earlier post), so I realise this is make or break stuff. I've spent a lot of my time on days off talking to people who can make things happen. I feel I'm about as informed as possible for an average joe investor. We COULD be months away from a contract award, but more than likely, we are not. The contract is already funded so sequester should not be an issue. They also have a need for these products. If Nephros IS awarded the contract, or a good portion of it, it will have an immediate impact on the pps regardless of when the contract will be placed. I realise this could go either way, but I support the company, it's products and I believe they are on the verge of finally making their mark. Let's try to be more positive.
1969, you need to do some homework. Chem Aqua are not a middle man. They are responsible for the water supply/treatment systems in 1500-2000 hospitals in the US. That's a lot of filters. They are also a global company in water treatment in much more than just hospitals. Neph has struggled to find a market place for it's filters. Chem Aqua is the market. Their people have to be trainied on Neph products. Chem Aqua searched high and low for a good filter. They stopped their search with Neph.
LLL, for the record I never thought you or MKeudel pumpers. You guys put way too much effort and logical discussion on here to make me think otherwise. I figured you got tired of the negativity and had things going on with your own business.
Just a quick comment: not sure I agree w/your Chem Aqua comments. The filters in the hospital have a life cycle and will need to be replaced. Chem Aqua need a filter, Neph need a market. A perfect fit imo. Nice to see you back on here. Cheers.