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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bonds2stocks 841 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jul 14, 1999
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  • glad to see 2014 behind CVV - 6.7 mm dollars spent on Taiwan Glass..!! thats around $1.10 PER SHARE of earnings.. the way i see it.. if there is 10-20% growth this year , and we are at All time high bookings revenues etc.. will be 16 to 18 mm in gross profit before SGA - thats $2.50 to $3.0 bucks a share gross profit- THEN lets say 7 mm in SGA for 2015 ( recall 1.8 mm was for legal fees on 2014!! AND the 4.95 settlelment .. 6.7mm GONE) - SO - say CVV makes 9-10 mm in net income for 2015 thats 1.50 per share at say a 14 multiple ( S&P at 17 for 2019 numbers not 2015! ) you get to 21 bucks per share .. simple math NOT even looking beyond 2015 ... this will go HIGHER

  • Reply to

    taiwan glass lawsuit dropped,

    by clearsudden Feb 3, 2015 5:43 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Feb 3, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    3.5 mm +9% interest for the last 4 yrs or so gets u too 4.9mm .. painful- But, its now behind them and no more attys fees for this going forward.. it was a waste of time and money .. mgmt cut losses and moved on- best thing i have seen out of them to date... this other Arbitration case is not filed in court because the plaintiff either cant pay to hire a real Lawyer or the firms thinks this case has no merit , the havehired this forensic acctg firm on their behalf to file in this arbitration setting .. small claims court city..also, it was for a solar film company that i think went bankrupt.. no much merit in this one..

  • Reply to

    A quiz

    by sbh3117 Jan 23, 2015 10:07 AM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 23, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    70k shares traded is 35 k shares sold ... 290k of value trading today ... most of the prints are 100 share algo hits and lifts , clearly hits - do NOT read anything into this tape.. i do hear good things and questions will be answered on the cc ... u oldtimers have to relax and let the lemmings have their day in the sun.. btw.. last i recall we did hear from Bayer .. october with 2nd milestone .. its been less than 90 days .. really? next post here will be after the call .. bananabra - weber !!!

  • Reply to

    Interesting New Info on CGEN Holders.....

    by bonds2stocks Jan 17, 2015 5:48 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 20, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    duh--

  • Reply to

    Interesting New Info on CGEN Holders.....

    by bonds2stocks Jan 17, 2015 5:48 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 17, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    which of course leads me to the last points .. we will be more correlated with the IBB in days of NO news and we have support at 8.80 area- well above the 200 day Moving average - so IF any news hits- our recent Basing will pop us into SPACE -

  • December 15 Nasdaq mentioned CGEN added to Biotech Index.. to be honest - I didnt think much about it- until NOW - Blackrock Filed Several Days ago Holding of around 565,000 shs on CGEN...on December 19th we had HUGE volume - most of it going through at 8.83 at the close .., Clearly Blackrock was BUYING that day .. we all know the name of the index ... IBB - its massive - i didnt think it was going into to that one AND I did not think it would be 565,000 shs .. and it make sense now that our SHORT interest ROSE 500k since December 15th to Jan 15th to over 2 Million shares !! .. we now know .. 600k shares shorts @ 8.83 unless they covered during the last few days which volume doesnt coincide with ... - Bananabra- my weber grill is still burning !!

  • Reply to

    Away we go. anticipating good quarterly orders.

    by magilla_s Jan 9, 2015 11:42 AM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 13, 2015 7:55 PM Flag

    leo sells another 20k at 15.45 yday... down to 797k....

  • Reply to

    Away we go. anticipating good quarterly orders.

    by magilla_s Jan 9, 2015 11:42 AM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 9, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    Leonard sold his 20k shares at 15 and change from 1/5 to 1/8 .. he is done selling for now- today, he wasnt selling and we ripped higher .. nice chart.

  • Reply to

    Bayer deal review?

    by bauersteven12 Jan 9, 2015 2:02 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 9, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    Bayer and Cgen are scheduled for Updates twice a year .. ( dates are mentioned in the redacted agmt which was posted) ending 6/30 and 12/31 .. 1st milestone right after 6/30 ..meeting then 2nd in Oct of 2014.. i have been told they are in constant communication on the process w/Bayer and a date for a meeting may not result in an announcement. All immunotherapy stocks are up.. CGEN too- wind at our backs .. maybe something in the next few weeks.. who knows.. technically, chart looks good- we have based , filled in the Gap, and now we can launch into Space - buckle UP.

  • Reply to

    Here we are...again

    by cgq1212 Dec 22, 2014 2:56 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 3, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    this week conf calls between bayer and cgen to kick the yr off right?? hmmmm- stock sure acts like it- banabra- the stuff still in the weber grill....

  • Reply to

    Will have to trust me

    by suejenseth Jan 2, 2015 4:06 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Jan 2, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    When ur on the Scientific Board your compensation is CGEN equity.. Just like a director - etc- similar to our Johns Hopkins deal.. we have 2 OTHER Scientific board members on the John Hopkins Staff and they have persuaded others there that CGEN has something worth teaming up on.. its is full of conflicts - but its the way research is done .. is what it is.. ALSO ,, ding ding... Jan 1 .. thoughts we would be near 9 .. next UP - Bayer review with Compugen ..3rd milestone payment.. next stop clinicals ????

  • Reply to

    Here we are...again

    by cgq1212 Dec 22, 2014 2:56 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Dec 22, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    maybe there was a reason for cnbc on during my drive .. heard is oil pitches etc.. then the mention of the 2 names i have been long a very long time and trading with large positions .. almost had to pull over from choking on my steak and cheese.. u cant make this stuff up.. I think i speak to his smart friends 2x a week...

  • Reply to

    Here we are...again

    by cgq1212 Dec 22, 2014 2:56 PM
    bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Dec 22, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    i dont know this Mark Fisher.....i did however hear this on the CNBC radio during lunchtime while out of the office.. he mentioned CERS - which I am long and have been for some time.. and then Compugen.. i guess Mark speaks to the same guys I do.... nice - we are near 9 now .. higher in MKt cap vs last year at this time with lots behind us.. milestones.. 110 mm in cash.. i figured we get here before yr end.. may have a push to 10 before yr end.. recall FPRX .. i dont own that one but if that company with Nothing Novel is outperforming on 1 deal .. can only fathom where we will be next year at this time.. good luck

  • bonds2stocks by bonds2stocks Dec 18, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    down a bit and we go higher.. good news with the Johns Hopkins folks- hope the board remembers the post i made on them a month or so ago.... trips to MD worked out... stay long.. we go higher-

  • bonds2stocks by bonds2stocks Dec 7, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    WSJ article on Cancer - Super Survivors- Immunotherapy didn't mention CGEN but did Quote CGEN's Scientific Board Member - Drew Pardoll from Johns Hopkins...“I divide pharmaceutical companies into two categories,” says Drew Pardoll, co-director of immunology at Johns Hopkins. “They’re in immunotherapy up to their eyeballs, or they want to be.” ... looks like tax loss selling may be behind us ... Bayer meet with CGEN in 3 weeks for review... technically we have filled the gap and have completed elliot wave 5 down trade to 6.25 .. Anat has presentation on Wednesday with Oppy- on our way to 14 ...

  • bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Nov 24, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    so.. my Bayer call buyout end of next yr.. who knows....

  • bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Nov 24, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    lastly.. look at the change of control language on this deal if FPRX get sold before trials end ...nder the terms of the Agreement, BMS will pay FivePrime a one-time fee of $30,000,000. If a change of control of FivePrime closes prior to the Initial Results Date, then if

    � immediately prior to such change of control, the acquirer in such change of control (or any of its affiliates) owns or controls an anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 antagonist that is then in clinical development for use in treating cancer or is then being commercialized for use in treating cancer,

    � BMS is using commercially reasonable efforts in the performance and fulfillment of its activities under this Agreement,

    � the parties are developing or pursuing the development of the Combined Therapy under the Agreement and

    � a change of control of BMS has not occurred,

    FivePrime would be obligated to pay to BMS the lesser of (x) $30,000,000 or
    (y) 10% of the aggregate purchase price paid to FivePrime or the stockholders of FivePrime at the closing of such change of control (with any contingent consideration being risk-adjusted and discounted).

  • bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Nov 24, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    take a look at FPRX today.. up HUGE ..i mentioned this name before.. a 2nd deal with bristol .. they have a MAB they rec'd 30 mm upfront for.. clearly the 10 mm deals have just gotten Bigger .. FPRX has nothing NOVEL....we will get our time in the sun..

  • bonds2stocks bonds2stocks Nov 22, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    Lastly- Given Bayers recent corporate transition into Healthcare / Drug Focused company announced a month or so ago.. and if we do to Clinic trials 1st qtr of 2015 on the 1 checkpoint thats performing ( after 3rd Payment) and given the 11 NOVEL checkpoints ... we all read the SA article .. its clear Bayer will want to buy out CGEN by the end of 2015 in my view.. again.. assuming they have big results... pure validation of their science - all of the Patents that have been applied for etc.. corporate moves and sr mgmt moves.. who knows where the price will be or if attained .. but.. @ 7.17 and with technicals rebounding - like our odds for +10 ,,,

  • all the "secret info" has be redacted - however , this time line resonates- Both CGEN and Bayer meet end of June and December to evaluate progress.. since the last June meeting they announced 1st milestone on July 7.. 1 week after Meeting.. then they remove Baize and give them equity for more up in August - then 2nd Milestone in October .. MG then says due to his old age he will be selling and diversifying sometime starting in 2015 ... we next meeting is 5 weeks away.. If things are going to plan as these moves have suggested ( Baize ) the next milestone could come in Early January .. and this would be the 3rd milestone worth about 7 mm ( 15 mm for each.. ) Most important is that the checkpoint goes to Clinical for larger Milestones 250 mm .. the 7 mm they get 1st qtr 2015 will again leave them free of cash burn just like this QTR's payment will do.. these moves they have made are correctly identifying 2015 is going to be real BIG .. we have made the down trade , sellers have made the bottom in my mind - we got our down 1 to 1.5 from Halloween.. next move up 10 .. IMO-

AGO
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