#3 "we have lawyers and transaction teams working around the clock on every continent to ensure the valuable LNG transaction for all partners is secured....we're all on track to reach our transaction goals by the end of this year." - Phil - CC - Nov 2011
Lawyers and transaction teams working around the clock folks! For 25 months!
And, on EVERY continent. Every single one.
Did you know Antarctica is a continent? Which poor yobs at UBS pulled Antarctica duty? It is a great place to put a data room though. I wonder if the deal's code name was Project Shackleton. They'll probably find bidders in the spring, frozen in the ice clutching "bids" and $5 billion checks. James Cameron is filming a documentary about it. Look it up.
I am hoping to be pleasantly surprised with a "deal". In fact I'm counting on it. I have no trade whatsoever on now, but am really really hoping IOC announces something, provides less than ideal disclosure but a huge dollop of pumpola - perhaps even enough to scare some fairweather shorts into covering. That would be my entry point, likely with a put spread or even a straight-up short. it's important to play the cycle of pumpola with companies like IOC. Eric has mastered this. I almost put on the same trade as him when IOC spiked into the 90s this month but I was holding out for $99.
As for the banks, IOC filed the whole documents -what was a surprise in there was all the additional fees and such that make it even more expensive than the headlines. I was also surprised to learn from that doc that they are dumping Rig #3 on the market (they had to carve this out and get permission from the lenders to dump it). Ohhh. Rig #3, we will miss you.
Of course, if a big fat check is coming in December, why get that loan again? Hmmmm.
Remember every 10% return costs $450 million in market value.
Barry Minkow is a #$%$. Whitney Tilson is a brilliant investor and a generous philanthropist with his money and time. Phil Mulacek is a train wreck and glad you all finally agree with me now. All IMHO.
I have to say now that my time with IOC is almost done, it feels great to be completely proven 100% right. Here we are a few weeks away from 2014 sitting on a massive pile of broken promises. Maybe IOC under Dr. Mike will be different, but I'm glad I nailed this one completely and accurately, and even made some bucks trading along the way and selling option premiums to, I'm sure, several of you.
Enjoy your day!
P.S. The Obamacare website is working flawlessly now, despite Republican obstructionism and defunding.
When the tide goes out I don't want to be anywhere near Kenny. With or without the banana hammock on....
Ho Ho HO I can smell January from here.
If I were advising Exxon as soon as Hession made that comment about "by year end" I would put down my pen until December 30. In choosing to throw a sop to the weary shareholders I think he made a rookie negotiating mistake. Now the other side knows how desperate IOC will be to protect the precious share price.
"Exxon told you this is a great deal from a ROI standpoint adding trains and said they are still negotiating with IOC weeks ago"
Do you think they were talking about Exxon's ROI, or Kenny's ROI when they made this statement?
The whole energy sector is littered with energy companies trading at steep discounts to a firmer NAV. Much better risk/reward out there IMHO. Doesn't mean IOC can't go up, only that the floor on the stock is single digits if they don't get a "deal" soon, and even a good deal could trigger a sell-the-news event. IMHO from here you need a blockbuster to see $100.
I think they'll probably get something done soon, actually.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Here's another that must be true: IOC is valued at current prices at over USD $4.5 Billion. A +10% return from here costs $450 million.
Not only must there be "a deal", but it must be a spectacular deal just to justify the current price. Hopefully all those "bidders" are exhausted after over two years of clamoring for Phil's jungle gas. They must be so weary and desperate.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"Ah yes, the race card. Can't disagree with the president because of his race. Ignorant comment."
Jdeo perhaps you need to improve your reading comprehension skills. My comments on the racial undertones in wankerfunsbie's post have nothing to do with the president. I was referring to this, in referencing poor and unemployed people:
"and a paid cell phone to call they ho and score some weed"
"and paid rent with child support sos day can hang wid da peeps all day an show day got game"
If you don't think those are racist comments I can't help you.
"The Washington Post: "Republicans Would Block Any Funding Attempts" Of Federal Insurance Exchange, Yet Pressured States To "Refuse To Build Their Own." A November 2 Washington Post article detailed the way in which Republicans pressured states to "refuse to build their own online insurance marketplaces," while preventing the funding of the federal insurance exchange in order to sabotage the ACA"
Interesting to see who took the bait on this post and who recognized it for what it was.
Let us all be thankful this day for Barack Hussein Obama.
I am distressed about deer. They are hungry. We must feed them and bait them, and then pump them full of lead. My Old Milwaukee beer costs 10 cents more than last week, now I know what it was like in Germany during the 1930s.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Yep. Sell baby sell. Did I mention sell?
While I'm not short, if I were long I would either sell or hedge - my favorite trade now would be to sell a March 120 call for $3 and buy a Jan $72.50 put, for a net cost of zero. Protect your arze on the downside if the deal is delayed or the deal chomps, yet still allow for almost 40% upside.
Yet how many longs would do such a thing? Probably none. Or how many would spend a few bucks buying the put protection outright and leaving "unlimited" upside? Probably none. Greed is a powerful thing to overcome and why many investors do so poorly over time.
Ho Ho HO
Strong Sell Here
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"LOL...I don't even buy that you believe this..."
Hmmm, that would mean I posted something just to agitate some proven nutjobs on this board. Surely I would never do such a thing. Obama's execution has been flawless after all.
Kenny, if the billionaires are so smart why did Paulson dump about 1/3 of his position? Is he smart or dumb?
I'd also point out that PRE doesn't even really mention it in their MD&A or presentations , nor do analysis even ask about it any longer. The last report I saw on PRE assigned an NAV to PRE's share of PPL 237 of $69 million. I think that's about half of what they plowed into it.
IMHO the Civelli-engineered PRE deal was nothing more than what it looked like on the surface - a lifeline thrown to IOC when it was desperate for cash, and another liquidity event for Clarion.
PRE has no business whatsoever operating outside of south and central America. PRE is getting beaten up by the market for going off the reservation, and they've told everyone they are going to cut out a lot of cost but haven't done it yet.