Antelope deep is far more interesting.
I don't think the company is doing a good job of explaining itself. If I am correct the additional seismic helps de-risk somewhat the E/A appraisal. Why aren't they talking about this more?
Well, to be honest I expected a bigger sustained bounce on the Bernstein news so it was a bit of a trade, but the potentially more interesting thing that came out yesterday (to me) and was quietly noted in the Bernstein report is the additional seismic on PRL 15 that seems to support a higher resource estimate.
The specific language is "new 2D seismic data which appears to support a larger volume".
They had announced in November they would be doing this and I'm not sure it's fully appreciated, or I could be giving more weight to it but this is very interesting. You can see from the maps they shot it over the area where the Antelope appraisal wells are. The reprocessing is interesting as well.
I've shifted my probabilities - my fear has been that a 3.5 to 5.5 Tcfe in Antelope is a distinct possibility. That seems less likely now so the odds of being closer to 6-7 Tcfe are greater IMHO and hence I see less downside probability - it's still there but a better chance of a higher number now.
Frankly I also have huge respect for Neil. I trust his assessment way more than the others like Evan who I have little respect for as an analyst.
The other thing for me is Byker. I said many times I would never invest in Phil or Byker at any price. The fact that there are adults in the room now is huge.
I was pleased to see the driling costs were not as bad as I expected. It shows what a train wreck Phil was and I truly wonder what happened to a lot of that money that vanished in the jungle.
Overall you have a company trading where it was 5 years ago, has been de-risked substantially, has a partner, is cashed-up at least for now, and is a takeout candidate. The refinery and other distractions are gone so it's an easier animal to evaluate.
The concern I have is that I'm not optimistic on Raptor or Bob Cat at a all. I assume they are zeros and my fear is that retail panics and drives price down. That might be a very interesting buy so I am toe-in-the-water.
"Are you still long SEAS?"
Why would you think I am long SEAS? Didn't even know Sea World was public and I would never buy their stock on moral grounds.
"will Bonk short the open, stay tuned?"
Nope. Actually went long pre-market.
It's a public service. When I was a Boy Scout I was trained to do at least one good deed per day. Saving people from rubbish is 5 minutes well-spent. Even if they never listen.
"have you ever heard of convertible bond arbitrage? what he describes is a very common strategy."
Yes I've heard of it because I use it professionally. When the cost of borrow exceeds the bond coupon it doesn't work.
" Most debenture holders are short to capture the yield and they will cover and convert to common shares. "
Kenny the debs only have a yield on par of 2.75%. Not only is that meagre it is well in excess of the average borrow cost to short IOC over the period.
You are a fool, in case I haven't made myself clear on that point.
Ho Ho HO. Up 3% on the morning.
Do I bank it or hold through the CC..... that is the question.
Better ask America's Top Financial Planner. Kenny? Kenny?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
My take is this:
If the company had good news they would have released it. Instead they are being forced to speak because of the financial results and the CC. Hence I see the upside as "we are encouraged blah blah blah" which won't go over well but not a catastrophe, and the downside is they talk about further delays and "safety issues" etc.
My guess is the cash burn in the quarter will be shocking.
I am short into the CC but fully prepared to be wrong. More of a gut feeling this time. It will take more than platitudes from the new Chairman to get some excitement into the stock. Wells were spudded in March - we are in August. Where's the beef?
I wouldn't be surprised at a 4-handle this month but my guess is $53-$55 tomorrow.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I am short IOC with the intention of being short into the CC.
Now you know who dropped it this morning :)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"[Kenny] was selected as one of “America’s Top Financial Planners” by the Consumers’ Research Council of America in Washington, D.C. for 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012 and 2013"
Just Google "My dog america's top financial planner" for some fun. What's funny is Kenny seems to have kept purchasing these "awards" even after being called out on them in 2011.
What's nearly as funny is what Kenny advertises as his capabilities on his website:
"He has the ability to go through the cash/flow statements and balance sheets of companies to determine their long term viability and projected future stock prices, giving you the in-depth analysis you need to invest in good companies with strong growth potential."
That's pretty much the polar opposite of what Kenny is.
Tell that to the bagholders that gave money to the company at $75 per share.
Getit - the point to get through your rather thick hall monitor skull is that IOC's share price performance has been dreadful. Sideways since late 2009.
I do enjoy how you spend your days editing fellow longs' posts on SHU.
Nyuk nyuk nyuk.