I think on August O/E it should conservatively hit $400:
1) Slow down Raptor and Bobcat drilling to suck in the shorts
2) Call the big boys on Thurs before O/E and tell them to call in their shares from the shorts
3) Announce Raptor results pre-market on Friday.
4) Announce Bobcat results at 11am
5) Announce 2-for-1 stock split at 1pm
6) Announce $250 million buyback with refinery proceeds at 3pm
7) Sit back and watch the epic squeeze into the close.
It will happen Ho Ho HO to the shorts.
Some are excited that Hession "exercises" his first set of options. Well...
A) These are not options, but performance share units.
B) The exercise price is zero
C) They expired on July 11, 2014 so the fact that he converted them is not "good news"
Sign below if you agree with the following:
"Dear Sirs (IOC Board of Directors). We have collectively decided that we will grudgingly accept a buyout offer at only a 70% premium to the current price, or $90. Failing that, we demand the immediate reinstatement of Jungle Phil. Obviously the market prefers a CEO that overpromises and underdelivers to one that underpromises and underdelivers. "
The pressure could be from anything ed (e.g. water). There are gas shows and oil seeps all over the place. Remember the "indications of oil" at Antelope? Furthermore there is nothing that would indicate a "reef" like Antelope. Elk is practically worthless but Antelope is valuable.
The news is negative, no question. It doesn't mean Wahoo is worthless though. What we do know is they are spending 10s of $millions more than expected on it, it's taking longer, and it's suspended.
To quote the CEO "this is neither success nor failure".
Desperate touts with a deflating share price are gullible to any morsel thrown into a PR ("indications of oil!!), but stretched timelines, lost millions, and suspended wells are only good with SHU Goggles on.
If Bobcat and Raptor (which are also past their best-before date already) are "suspended" as well the stuffing will really get knocked out of IOC and low 40s or high 30s isn't out of the question. It will call into question IOC's upside, and perhaps trickle over to the risk of the Antelope appraisal wells which could very well be negative (or positive to be fair, but the market may increase the risk profile).
For every $100M in cash that IOC evaporates in the jungle that is about $2 per share.
There are upside scenarios as well of course (success at drilling, confimration of a larger Antelope size, progress on LNG), but to think this could get knocked into the 30s in short order is naive IMHO.
I am not short (I was a week or so ago) and would personally love for Bobcat and Raptor to be huge busts creating a big oversold situation - I'd look to trade the bounce like I did on 12/6. But no way I'd touch it while it's still up in the 50s.
"Moose-2 has its day
Wednesday, 10 December 2003
InterOil has moved onto Moose-2, the follow-up well to the successful, yet lengthy, Moose-1 wildcat which has tapped an estimated resource of up to 200mmbbl.
Testing operations have confirmed the need for artificial lift (pump) to flow the Moose-1 structure. InterOil then decided that the fastest and most economic means of determining the Moose structure's potential was to SUSPEND operations on the Moose ST1 and move on to drill and test the Moose-2 exploration/appraisal well."
Only $5.79 to go it seems. I might even consider a long position as a trade if it gets to low $40s. Another well debacle on Bobcat or Raptor might very well do it. Need to knock the speculative mania that's keeping it up in the 50s.
"Are you lying, or do you just have a reading problem? It was not Hession who used the word "exciting"."
Getit, you lying criminal SEC-violating 1934 distorer. From Hession's AGM address:
"in the heart of a very exciting emerging province."
"This is an exciting prospect"
"But, any way you look at it, we have a busy and exciting program under way."
"We have a busy and exciting program, and the financial capacity to deliver it."
1934 SEC Criminal!!!
I never left Getit. Always here. Waiting. Ready to throw cold reality-water on your dreams.
The point on Raptor and Bobcat as that they were completely silent on it. Things must be going so great for IOC to clam up about it. It's IOC's style to sit on "good news".
Regardless of what lipstick you or Hession put on it, Wahoo-1 has now been suspended. It's done. Sure, one day they may come back and redrill it, but from an economic standpoint calling it Wahoo-1 or Wahoo-2 is semantics.
IOC is now a zero-revenue upstream pure play pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the jungle. It's a big gamble.
Especially up here in the 50s.
The Real Bonk.
P.S. it's funny reading your lunatic rants on SHU. Seems I'm not the only one that knows what a jack ars you are now :)
There may or may not be meaningful hydrocarbons at Wahoo, and if there they may or may not be of value (i.e. commercial). What I wrote was that IMHO Wahoo-1 is a bust IMHO. If and when they come back I doubt they'll drill the same hole. Is the rig even on the pad anymore?
For all intents and purposes, IMHO, a new well at Wahoo will be like starting from scratch - i.e. enormously expensive even if they do it.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Frankly and simply it means Wahoo-1 is a bust and a writeoff and the $50-100M they spent on it is flushed. It means someday they might come back and drill a Wahoo-2.
The tidbits about propane, ethane, methane etc. in the PR are virtually meaningless IMHO.
Obviously the public is the last to know, as always.
This was not a surprise at all. The most interesting thing about the PR to me is that they provided zero update on the other two wells that are 100+ days post-spud. IOC never sits on good news so draw your own conclusions.
All IMHO of course.
If you don't think many IOC investors are looking for multi-baggers I suggest you read SHU. Note the guys ready to throw in the towel and sell for only 2x now. "At this point I'd take $120 and move on". And those are the despondent ones. I didn't say it was rational.
I agree completely. If it closed at $57.99 we'd be in a world of hurt over the long term. But since it closed at $58.18 it pretty much guarantees that IOC is an excellent investment for the next 10 years.
He already owns 4,355 restricted shares that he got for free. That's almost $240K worth of stock. I'd say that is tons of motivation. It's like 2.4 months of his base salary. You don't expect him to dip into his OWN pocket, do you? That's just crazy talk.
IMHO IOC is in a bit of investor no-man's land. Usually energy investors are of the pure speculative type (e.g. IOC pre-Total, or the cash flow / production / dividend type. Cross-over plays like IOC that have no support of cash flow (especially with mid and downstream business gone) and a wide band of outcomes usually get punished in times like these so no surprise here. E/A still a big unknown from a size perspective, drilling is late and problematic, and Total's money might be flushed wells are a bust.
Not enough juice for the speculators out there looking for 2X to 10x on their capital, and no conservative investor would touch IOC with a barge pole right now. Hence the no-man's land.
I love how Getitwrong is still on about "short manipulation" Shorts have bought in about 6 million shares since December so if anything the price would be way worse without their support.
Dear Getit: I am enjoying watching you squirm like the jack-ars you are.
Come on raiseyou, I'm trying to get a rise out of some folks. I don't appreciate your sound logic and rational thinking. Please cease and desist.
I'm not prepared to go there yet. But I'm starting to formulate a preliminary hypothesis that $100,000 per month Hession might be a train wreck. His free passes are about up. And "I am not Phil" only goes so far. Not being Phil still allows for being the second-worst CEO in modern history.
I love how Phil seemed to only care about the share price, and Hession doesn't seem to give a frack about it. With $100,000 per month tumbling in the door in base salary why would he worry too much?
Ho Ho HO! It's great stuff MS. I know exactly who Indoreservoir is - I would never out him but let's just say he is in the industry as he purports and is worth reading.
I had a very long and cordial exchange on Seeking Alpha in the comment section of STP's article titled "Interoil's Increasing Value Proposition". We really got into a bunch stuff and had a great discussion. So much so that the SHU nut crowd were carrying indo around on their shoulders as the "Bonkslayer" and there is a whole thread dedicated to it.
Palm noted "Seems to know his stuff and does great job of explaining using examples based on his experience."
Art noted " I read the first 65% then the last 5% of 'the great debate' involving Bonk, Indoreservoir et al" and "I certainly agree a meaningful discussion is best to understand the opinions of others, and certainly appreciated greatly the insights given by Indoreservoir. His review of the technical viability of IOC's resource claims and his cautions with respect to the politics of PNG were comments well taken that likely would not have been revealed in the absense of a debate. On the other hand, the short arguements provided by Bonk et al were tiresome to read for the upteenth time."
But eventually, after joining SHU and offering a few sober facts (like the success rate of wells) and other level-headed blasphemy, the nutters like Getit went bonkers (pun intended). It's even more fun as Hession came out and used the same well success rate shortly after Indoreservoir.
With shorts having more or less moved on (in fact supporting the stock with their covering), and the stock slipping slipping and back in the 50s, while the market makes record highs, it's truly enjoyable watching fools like Getitwrong twist in the wind.
If that doesn't deserve a Ho Ho HO! I don't know what does, other than making a fortune on NQ puts :)